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MBB Game 17: Florida State @ LJVM - Wednesday 9 pm - ACCN

Kind of game you expect to win and have to win. I expect we will take care of business.

Forbes sitting Monsanto and almost ending our season vs APP is not something to look back on and give him props. Lucky decision, that actually still hurts us in our metrics.
 
I trust Forbes to do what's right for the team, especially with Monsanto given the amount of time they've been together. Even if Monsanto was worth 5 possessions in the App game (probably not) over the course of the season that five possession difference isn't a major factor.

Numbers for tonight:

Vegas -8.5
Torvik -11.3
KenPom -9

For NET purposes, Wake is roughly between the Torvik and KP rating and FSU is 50+ spots worse, so I'd imagine that just to "tread water" at our current 81st spot (obviously games don't happen in a vacuum though as teams around us constantly move as well) we need to win by 12-14 points.
 
Just win tonight, and if FSU starts to play better, the rankings bump may come over the last couple months. If we get to 13-7 in conference play (big if with projections at 10-10 (KP) and 11-9 (Torvik)), the NET likely takes care of itself.
 
deacfan123 said:
Kind of game you expect to win and have to win. I expect we will take care of business.

Forbes sitting Monsanto and almost ending our season vs APP is not something to look back on and give him props. Lucky decision, that actually still hurts us in our metrics.
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Garbage take. You know what would hurt our metrics more? Monsanto continuing to play selfishly and not buying in on defense for the rest of the season. Coach seemed to solve both those issues with a benching. Master class from Forbes in finally getting through to a guy that by all accounts seems impossible to get through to.
 
deacfan123 said:
Forbes sitting Monsanto and almost ending our season vs APP is not something to look back on and give him props. Lucky decision, that actually still hurts us in our metrics.
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Woof. Monsanto's Offensive Rating measured by Pomeroy against P5 teams prior to the App games was 99. Since then, it's 116. Wake's Offensive Efficiency Rating against App was 102.7.

From the start of the season through the day before the App Game, Monsanto was 71st in the ACC in Torvik's player ratings. Since then he's 12th.

www.barttorvik.com

T-Rank Player Stats - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
www.barttorvik.com
 
We are 20-2 since the start of last season in games we were at least 7 point favorites in. 14-8 against the spread in those games.

Obviously some of the outright wins are bolstered by wins as 15-25+ point favs, but we do not usually lose games that we are strong favorites in.

We are 11-1 in games we are favored between 7-13 points.

Worst loss is to BC as a -10 in the ACCT last year (bleh).
 
Deacsfan27 said:
We are 20-2 since the start of last season in games we were at least 7 point favorites in. 14-8 against the spread in those games.

Obviously some of the outright wins are bolstered by wins as 15-25+ point favs, but we do not usually lose games that we are strong favorites in.

We are 11-1 in games we are favored between 7-13 points.

Worst loss is to BC as a -10 in the ACCT last year (bleh).
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This gives me some comfort, but, I don't think we would be favored by nearly as much if FSU had been playing with their current lineup all year - in other words, I don't think the metrics reflect the current reality of this matchup. Hopefully we play well and that won't matter!
 
I don't think a lot of people are realizing how much better FSU is than their record and their metrics. A lot of their awful losses were with injured players, and today they get an absolute stud freshman on the court for the first time after a bc NCAA suspension kept him sidelined. I think 7.5 point favorites is probably a decent line, but if we don't take care of the ball and have guys in foul trouble we could be in for a serious fight.
 
It's kind of worst case scenario game for WF.

FSU has sucked all year so the analytics and power ratings which don't take into account injuries or suspensions have FSU pegged as playing at a Cal Baptist level, when their current roster is much better than that. Glad WF doesn't play FSU in Tallahassee. Hope WF wins, and then, FSU's wins later on to help WF. Just sucks that so many ACC teams got off to horrid starts, but are now playing at a higher level. Then again, some teams like ND just continue to suck.
 
I don't think a lot of people are realizing how much better FSU is than their record and their metrics. A lot of their awful losses were with injured players, and today they get an absolute stud freshman on the court for the first time after a bc NCAA suspension kept him sidelined. I think 7.5 point favorites is probably a decent line, but if we don't take care of the ball and have guys in foul trouble we could be in for a serious fight.
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i for one am shocked that you're feeling negative
 
I mean, they've dropped 15 spots in the last month despite going 4-2 in that stretch.

At this point you kinda are who you are. Miller coming in helps certainly for the rest of the year, as does getting guys back who have been injured.

Anything can happen in a one game sample size, but I personally think Baba being back tonight will be more questions than answers for FSU. He is obviously talented, but jumping into the roster in the middle of the ACC schedule and heading to a road environment where the hosts have won 13 games in a row, and 26/28, is not a recipe for success.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I mean, they've dropped 15 spots in the last month despite going 4-2 in that stretch.

At this point you kinda are who you are. Miller coming in helps certainly for the rest of the year, as does getting guys back who have been injured.

Anything can happen in a one game sample size, but I personally think Baba being back tonight will be more questions than answers for FSU. He is obviously talented, but jumping into the roster in the middle of the ACC schedule and heading to a road environment where the hosts have won 13 games in a row, and 26/28, is not a recipe for success.
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Yeah I mean in their last four games stretching back to a week before Christmas they:

Put up a 29 game score against St. Johns and lost by 14 despite having a guy go for 30
Beat a bottom three ACC team at home by one
Lost to Duke by 20
Beat a bottom five ACC team at home by 11 (progress!)

It doesn't strike me as a team "putting it together" but rather looks like a team that's bottom 3 in the ACC and well outside a top 100 team. I mean even if they're a few points better tonight than they have been, they're still on the road against a team that's obviously better which is a tough ask for anybody.
 
DeacDiggler said:
i for one am shocked that you're feeling negative
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Not being negative, I just really don't want the board to go up in flames if it's a close game tonight. I expect a 10 point win that gets hairy for a second but is put away with FT shooting.
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Not being negative, I just really don't want the board to go up in flames if it's a close game tonight. I expect a 10 point win that gets hairy for a second but is put away with FT shooting.
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LOL. So you expect Wake to cover at home.
 
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