Pilchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 3, 2011
- Messages
- 17,191
- Reaction score
- 6,465
Circumstances (got to drive a kid back to school for Spring Semester) resulted in a truncated report on the Deacs' Saturday Game at UVA (the 2019 National Champs: UVA):
2021-22 Hoos: 10-6 (4-2) #64. Close ACC wins over Pitt (by 1), Cuse (by 5), Clemson (by 10), VT (by 2); blowout losses to Clemson (by 17) and UNC (by 16). UVA is the slowest tempo team in the country averaging only 60 possessions per game. Last night's win over VT was 54-52 slog. UVA's decline has been blamed on their poor offense (#9 in ACC offensive efficiency), but UVA's defense is what has really declined. Between 2014 through 2020, UVA defense was rated #4, #2, #7, #2, #1, #5, and #1 nationally. This season UVA is #50 nationally and #9 in the ACC in conference games. UVA has kept scoring down by playing a super slow tempo, not great defense. UVA is no longer a defensive juggernaut. UVA is last in the ACC in 3 point FG% defense and 13th in forcing turnovers. UVA still does excel at defending the paint (#2 in the ACC in 2 point defense). Offensively, UVA does not shoot well (2nd to last in the ACC in points generated on 3 point shots). UVA needs to score inside to generate offense.
Projection: KP projects a 66-63 UVA win in 63 possessions, giving WF a 41% chance at a win. Think our Deacs have a solid shot at the upset. WF has played solid interior D (#3 in the ACC in 2 PT defense). Also, WF has shot unusually poorly in conference games 29% from 3 in ACC games (LaRavia 38% from 3 overall; 27% in ACC games; only Mucius is shooting above his overall 3 point % in conference games). In particular, Davien will have a game under his belt, and think he will back in form on Saturday. WF has not won in C'ville since 2010; so, hard to be super-confident, but this WF team is simply better than UVA as WF will have the two best players on the court (Williams and LaRavia), and WF is due for a bust out offensive game.
2021-22 Hoos: 10-6 (4-2) #64. Close ACC wins over Pitt (by 1), Cuse (by 5), Clemson (by 10), VT (by 2); blowout losses to Clemson (by 17) and UNC (by 16). UVA is the slowest tempo team in the country averaging only 60 possessions per game. Last night's win over VT was 54-52 slog. UVA's decline has been blamed on their poor offense (#9 in ACC offensive efficiency), but UVA's defense is what has really declined. Between 2014 through 2020, UVA defense was rated #4, #2, #7, #2, #1, #5, and #1 nationally. This season UVA is #50 nationally and #9 in the ACC in conference games. UVA has kept scoring down by playing a super slow tempo, not great defense. UVA is no longer a defensive juggernaut. UVA is last in the ACC in 3 point FG% defense and 13th in forcing turnovers. UVA still does excel at defending the paint (#2 in the ACC in 2 point defense). Offensively, UVA does not shoot well (2nd to last in the ACC in points generated on 3 point shots). UVA needs to score inside to generate offense.
Projection: KP projects a 66-63 UVA win in 63 possessions, giving WF a 41% chance at a win. Think our Deacs have a solid shot at the upset. WF has played solid interior D (#3 in the ACC in 2 PT defense). Also, WF has shot unusually poorly in conference games 29% from 3 in ACC games (LaRavia 38% from 3 overall; 27% in ACC games; only Mucius is shooting above his overall 3 point % in conference games). In particular, Davien will have a game under his belt, and think he will back in form on Saturday. WF has not won in C'ville since 2010; so, hard to be super-confident, but this WF team is simply better than UVA as WF will have the two best players on the court (Williams and LaRavia), and WF is due for a bust out offensive game.
Last edited:
