Pilchard
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- May 3, 2011
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You want a Quad 1 game?
Can you handle a Quad 1 game?
Well, Deacon fans, you got your Quad 1 game. No matter what happens tomorrow, WF could win by 100, and this will be a Quad 1 game tomorrow and when the NCAAT brackets are released in less than two months. Win this game and WF will do something that no other NCAA men's basketball team, including #4 in the NET Tennessee, has accomplished this year. Win on the road in Chapel Hill. Win this game, and a lot of (not all of) the NCAAT angst that haunts WF fans will have eased. WF has played lots of games where the win didn't mean a lot, but the loss would be devastating. Well, this one is the opposite; a win would be a massive, and a loss is expected. Let's do this.
Here is a quick Sunday take on the UNC:
North Carolina 15-3 (7-0) #7 KP #7 NET -- Credit to Hubert Davis for a bounce-back 2024 season, after a disasterous 2023 campaign; as you may recall, last season, UNC managed to start the season as the consenus #1, and finish the season unranked and without a NCAAT bid. This year UNC has three neutral court losses (#30 Villanova in OT, #6 UCONN and #16 KY); UNC has been perfect since the December 16 loss to the KY, beating #21 Oklahoma and running the table against 7 ACC opponents with no margin in a conference game less than 8 points. Most recently, UNC beat BC in Chestnut Hill by 10 on Saturday.
The Analytics -- ACC games only; ranks are out of the 15 ACC games.
A meeting of the irresitible force meeting the immovable object with WF's three shooting prowess against UNC's three point shooting defense:
TO BE POSTED IN A MESSAGE BELOW.
UNC has the more experienced roster (UNC is #5 in experinece, partially due to Armando Bacot playing his 28th year of college basketball; WF is #161)
The Roster:
Against BC, UNC started:
6-0 4th year RJ Davis: leads, UNC in scoring (20 ppg) and steals (1.5); 2nd in assists played in 119 college games; he knows how to win; Davis is the biggest reason; UNC has a turnaround season
6-1 1st year Elliot Cadeau: has started the last 13 games; leads team in assists (3.7 per game); Cadeau's insertion into the lineup has allowed Davis to focus on scoring; Cadaeu struggled from three (23%)
6-5 5th year Cormac Ryan: Stanford and ND transfer: shooting a career low 29% from three; scored 14 in each of the last two games;
6-7 3rd year Harrison Ingram: 5 star out of HS; struggled for two years at Stanford; has had a breakout season for the Heels; 12 ppg 8 rpg; shooting 41% from three, but only 57% from the line; three point numbers sceam unsustainability
6-11 5th year (at least) Armando Bacot: career best 124 O rating; 55% from two; 80% from the line (56% for his career); highest block rate of his career not much of threat from three; Bacot was always very good; he's the best he has been this season
The bench: 6-3 Seth Trimble (greatly improved O rating has jumped from 85 to 112; rarely shoots from three, but hitting 53%); 6-9 Jae'lyn Withers (L'ville transfer; played well recently; 11 ppg; 6 rpg last three); 6-10 Jalen Washington (kills me that he languishes on the UNC bench; very talented; 130 O rating 70% from two; 50% from three; hasn't scored last two games; he would be a beast in any ACC program except for Duke and UNC, where his talent is wasted)
The Projection:
KP:
UNC 82-72
Torvik:
UNC 83-72
The Heels (and similar teams like Duke and Kentucky) have failed to meet expectations in recent years, because of inexperienced guard play. Well, RJ Davis has stayed at UNC for four years, and unlike recent UNC teams, he won't let UNC suck; he knows how to run this team, and in ACC play, each time that opponent has challenged UNC late, Davis has scored or assisted on key baskets to stave off that challenge. UNC will always have horses (and actually, this team is not as uber-talented as some recent UNC teams - Cormac Ryan starts; he was a big reason ND was awful last year), but with experience to complement UNC's talent, this team is a tough out. That said, UNC has been super-fortunate in ACC play as most Heel opponents have struggled from three against the Heels:
So, UNC's somewhat fraudulent three point defensive numbers now face the ACC's best three point shooting team: WF; if it was not enough for the Deacons to have five different players shooting 38% or better from three, here comes the ACC's most deadly three point shooter since JJ Reddick. The man, the myth, the legend: Damari.
With no practice or prep, Damari hits 4 threes from the parking lot against L'ville, just time for tomorrow's trip to Chapel Hill. My god, if this was a movie, no one would believe it. When Damari's available, but not in the game, I spend half my time looking to see if Monsanto is getting ready to go in ('does he have his warm-up off'; is a coach motioning for him to go to the scorers table); when Monsanto's in the game, I only watch him; I think Parker hit two threes as soon as Monsanto got on the floor yeserday, but I didn't see them, I was watching Damari, because if he gets the ball anywhere, it's going up. Love watching opponets press up the defense on him, but its never far enough; even with a man on him; Monsanto is 6-6 with an instaneous release; un-fucking guardable.
Look, there a bunch of other matchup stuff that hugely favors the Heels:
Can you handle a Quad 1 game?
Well, Deacon fans, you got your Quad 1 game. No matter what happens tomorrow, WF could win by 100, and this will be a Quad 1 game tomorrow and when the NCAAT brackets are released in less than two months. Win this game and WF will do something that no other NCAA men's basketball team, including #4 in the NET Tennessee, has accomplished this year. Win on the road in Chapel Hill. Win this game, and a lot of (not all of) the NCAAT angst that haunts WF fans will have eased. WF has played lots of games where the win didn't mean a lot, but the loss would be devastating. Well, this one is the opposite; a win would be a massive, and a loss is expected. Let's do this.
Here is a quick Sunday take on the UNC:
North Carolina 15-3 (7-0) #7 KP #7 NET -- Credit to Hubert Davis for a bounce-back 2024 season, after a disasterous 2023 campaign; as you may recall, last season, UNC managed to start the season as the consenus #1, and finish the season unranked and without a NCAAT bid. This year UNC has three neutral court losses (#30 Villanova in OT, #6 UCONN and #16 KY); UNC has been perfect since the December 16 loss to the KY, beating #21 Oklahoma and running the table against 7 ACC opponents with no margin in a conference game less than 8 points. Most recently, UNC beat BC in Chestnut Hill by 10 on Saturday.
The Analytics -- ACC games only; ranks are out of the 15 ACC games.
A meeting of the irresitible force meeting the immovable object with WF's three shooting prowess against UNC's three point shooting defense:
TO BE POSTED IN A MESSAGE BELOW.
UNC has the more experienced roster (UNC is #5 in experinece, partially due to Armando Bacot playing his 28th year of college basketball; WF is #161)
The Roster:
Against BC, UNC started:
6-0 4th year RJ Davis: leads, UNC in scoring (20 ppg) and steals (1.5); 2nd in assists played in 119 college games; he knows how to win; Davis is the biggest reason; UNC has a turnaround season
6-1 1st year Elliot Cadeau: has started the last 13 games; leads team in assists (3.7 per game); Cadeau's insertion into the lineup has allowed Davis to focus on scoring; Cadaeu struggled from three (23%)
6-5 5th year Cormac Ryan: Stanford and ND transfer: shooting a career low 29% from three; scored 14 in each of the last two games;
6-7 3rd year Harrison Ingram: 5 star out of HS; struggled for two years at Stanford; has had a breakout season for the Heels; 12 ppg 8 rpg; shooting 41% from three, but only 57% from the line; three point numbers sceam unsustainability
6-11 5th year (at least) Armando Bacot: career best 124 O rating; 55% from two; 80% from the line (56% for his career); highest block rate of his career not much of threat from three; Bacot was always very good; he's the best he has been this season
The bench: 6-3 Seth Trimble (greatly improved O rating has jumped from 85 to 112; rarely shoots from three, but hitting 53%); 6-9 Jae'lyn Withers (L'ville transfer; played well recently; 11 ppg; 6 rpg last three); 6-10 Jalen Washington (kills me that he languishes on the UNC bench; very talented; 130 O rating 70% from two; 50% from three; hasn't scored last two games; he would be a beast in any ACC program except for Duke and UNC, where his talent is wasted)
The Projection:
KP:
UNC 82-72
Torvik:
UNC 83-72
The Heels (and similar teams like Duke and Kentucky) have failed to meet expectations in recent years, because of inexperienced guard play. Well, RJ Davis has stayed at UNC for four years, and unlike recent UNC teams, he won't let UNC suck; he knows how to run this team, and in ACC play, each time that opponent has challenged UNC late, Davis has scored or assisted on key baskets to stave off that challenge. UNC will always have horses (and actually, this team is not as uber-talented as some recent UNC teams - Cormac Ryan starts; he was a big reason ND was awful last year), but with experience to complement UNC's talent, this team is a tough out. That said, UNC has been super-fortunate in ACC play as most Heel opponents have struggled from three against the Heels:
- Pitt 17% from three
- Clemson 6% from three
- NC State 10% from three
- Cuse 21% from three
- BC 18% from three
So, UNC's somewhat fraudulent three point defensive numbers now face the ACC's best three point shooting team: WF; if it was not enough for the Deacons to have five different players shooting 38% or better from three, here comes the ACC's most deadly three point shooter since JJ Reddick. The man, the myth, the legend: Damari.
With no practice or prep, Damari hits 4 threes from the parking lot against L'ville, just time for tomorrow's trip to Chapel Hill. My god, if this was a movie, no one would believe it. When Damari's available, but not in the game, I spend half my time looking to see if Monsanto is getting ready to go in ('does he have his warm-up off'; is a coach motioning for him to go to the scorers table); when Monsanto's in the game, I only watch him; I think Parker hit two threes as soon as Monsanto got on the floor yeserday, but I didn't see them, I was watching Damari, because if he gets the ball anywhere, it's going up. Love watching opponets press up the defense on him, but its never far enough; even with a man on him; Monsanto is 6-6 with an instaneous release; un-fucking guardable.
Look, there a bunch of other matchup stuff that hugely favors the Heels:
- of course, UNC is first in the ACC in % of points from the line; WF is in the bottom half of the ACC in defensive foul rate; it's on the road (Reid will have been called for two shooting fouls on Bacot before the opening tip)
- WF has struggled on the road this (1-3); UNC is 8-0 at home
- UNC plays great two point defense
- UNC doesn't allow offensive boards
