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MBB Game 20: UVA @ LJVM - Saturday 2pm - ESPNU

Pilchard

Pilchard

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This Saturday afternoon, our Deacs face the top rated KP ACC team: #10 UVA. Here's a report on the Hoos:

UVA's 2022-23 Season: After missing out on an NCAAT invite last season (for the first time since 2013), Tony Bennett has led his Cavs to another strong season. The Hoos are 14-3 with wins over #17 Baylor, #18 Illinois and #53 Michigan. UVA's only losses are to #1 Houston by 8, @ #42 Miami by 2 and @ #60 Pitt by 3. So, UVA has been in every game this year, and are a couple of three points shots from a 16-1 record. Last night, the Hoos wore down desperate VT in an impressive 78-68 win. KP projects UVA to finish the regular season 15-5 (in a first place tie with Clemson). If UVA wins on Saturday, think that UVA wins the ACC regular season as they will be favored in all, but maybe one of their remaining games. While UVA is coming off a rivalry game with VT and has one less day of rest than WF, UVA does have a week off after visiting WF on Saturday.

The Analytic Matchup (ACC games and ranks only):

On Tuesday, WF played the #1 ACC defense against Clemson (WF scored 87). Saturday, WF faces the #2 ACC defense.

Offense:
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): UVA: 107.8 (#6) - WF 112.9 (#1)
Effective FG%: UVA 51.6 (#7) - WF: 55.5 (#1)
TO%: UVA 14.4 (#3) - WF 15.1 (#4)
3PT%: UVA 38.3 (#3) - WF 39.8 (#1)
2PT%: 47.8 (#13) - WF 52.1 (#5)
FTA/FGA: 27.4 (#11) - 35.8 35.8 (#2)

Defense:
Efficiency: UVA 97.8 (#2) - 106 (#8)
Effective FG%: UVA 48.3 (#4) - WF 53.4 (#12)
TO%: UVA 19.9 (#1) - WF 19.7 (#2)
3PT%: UVA 37% (#12) - WF 33% (#10)
2PT%: UVA 43.9% (#2) - WF 56.1% (#14)
FTA/FGA: UVA 24.1 (#3) - WF 31.8 (#12)

Team (national ranks):
Bench Minutes: UVA 29.2% (#234) - WF 26.6% (#292)
Experience: UVA 3.57 years (#4) - 2.51 years (#61) -- hard to believe that there are three NCAA teams MORE experienced than UVA.
Height: UVA 76.7" (#237)- WF 78" (#50)
Strength of Schedule: UVA #30 - WF #88

Roster:

Against VT, the Hoos started:

5-10 Kihei Clark: recruited by Terry Holland, Clark played at UVA with Wally Walker, Bryant Stith (love those Corey Alexander stories about Kihei as his backcourt mate); Saturday will be Clark's 145th game at UVA; 20 points 5 assists in VT win; averaging 11 ppg; leads UVA in assists and steals; 38% from three
6-3 Reece Beekman: elite defender; 48% from 3; 2nd in assists and steals; IMO, the most likely player on the current UVA roster to play in the NBA; leads UVA in O rating (114)
6-4 Armaan Franklin: IU transfer; leading scorer 12 ppg; 2nd in boards; 41% from 3; double figures in last 6 games; scoreless in the loss to Miami;
6-6 Jayden Gardner: Wake Forest, NC native: doesn't shoot 3s; 53% from 2; 61% from the line; leading rebounder
6-8 Ben Vander Plas: started the last 2; threat from 3 (33%); has hit 2 or more threes in each of the last four games; WF has had issues with bigs that can shoot the three; double figures in each of the last 3 games; 10 points 7 boards and 3 assists against VT

Bench:

6-8 Ryan Dunn: frosh #130 recruit in the 2022 class; 24 minutes, 3 points, 3 boards last night; 27% from three
6-4 Isaac McKneely: #63 rated recruit in the 2022 class; marksman; 41% from three (44% in ACC games); 80% of his points from behind the arc; can't help off of him
6-11 Kadin Shedrick: starter until the last week; limited minutes last two games; no threat from three; 71% from 2; 83% from the line

Projection: KP projects a 71-68 UVA win; Torvik 69-68 UVA.

Huge game for both teams as there is no rematch in C'ville. KP and Torvik both rank UVA has the top team on WF's schedule. As noted above, UVA has played a solid schedule and they either win or lose close. OTOH, WF has now won 15 straight home games.

Both teams look to get a huge part of their offense from behind the arc (WF is #2 and UVA is #3 in the ACC in the percentage of the scoring on three point shots). Defensively, UVA and WF are #1 and #2 in forcing TOs. So, the team that hits the threes and avoid TOs will likely win this game. As WF's record at LJVM demonstrates (which must pain DR -- he's been very quiet lately), WF plays better, and particularly, shoots better at home. So, I give WF a very small edge in a tight matchup. That said, UVA is so well coached and experienced this game will be a struggle until the end. Will take WF if the Deacs are getting 2 or more. While WF has been an "over" wagon at home lately (all four ACC home games have gone over the posted total), just can't take an over in an UVA game with a total in the high 130s.

Deacs win this one, and an ACC Regular season first place finish becomes a real possibility.
 
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Key match up will be Appleby vs. Clark and which one can stay out of foul trouble.
 
Pilch — Given their lack of size, feel like this is a game where we go small and play Carr at the 5 a good amount?
 
JOJESMA said:
Key match up will be Appleby vs. Clark and which one can stay out of foul trouble.
Click to expand...

Appleby gave a master class in savvy guard play to Clemson’s two young guys. Kihei Clark is a different animal altogether. Should be fun.
 
This game is going to be as enjoyable as a root canal. I don't mean that it will be ugly, I just mean that I expect it to be tight, physical, and stressful to watch.

If we win, I'll be super excited and optimistic.
If we lose, I'll lament a missed opportunity and replay a lot of the key moments in my head.

But, as Forbes says, the goal is to play meaningful games... This is clearly a meaningful game.
 
Don't see us winning this one but we've played well enough that we can absorb a loss and keep tourney hopes alive.
 
WRS said:
Pilch — Given their lack of size, feel like this is a game where we go small and play Carr at the 5 a good amount?
Click to expand...
When UVA plays Shedrick and/or Dunn, i can see Marsh and Bradford on the floor, but when UVA goes with Vander Plas and then 4 players 6-6 or under, agree that WF plays Carr at the 5.
 
I think this is a tough one. I know we just beat Clemson's defense but I think we struggle with Virginia's. UVA is so methodical and grinds away, limited possessions, we struggle to score.

As an aside, who else thought John Paul Jones Arena was named after the real John Paul Jones and not some alumni donor's dad?
 
Man I am so pumped for this game. I hope it's rockin in there. I won't be able to sleep friday night, thanks for bringing those feelings back steve!
 
Turd Ferguson said:
I think this is a tough one. I know we just beat Clemson's defense but I think we struggle with Virginia's. UVA is so methodical and grinds away, limited possessions, we struggle to score.

As an aside, who else thought John Paul Jones Arena was named after the real John Paul Jones and not some alumni donor's dad?
Click to expand...
not the Zeppelin bassist?
 
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