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MBB Game 25: UNC-CH at the LJVM - Tuesday -- 7 pm ESPN

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Deacs make their 2nd appearance on ESPN in a week, when the Deacs host the Heels on tomorrow (Tuesday) at 7 pm.

Here is the link to the previous report on UNC when WF lost at Chapel Hill 88-79 (UNC's starting lineup remains the same).

In the one month since these teams last played WF is 5-4 (#48 Torvik) UNC is 5-3 (#44 Torvik).

Updated ACC ranks:

Offense
Efficiency: UNC 106.3 (#8) - WF 112 (#2)
TO%: UNC 14.7% - WF 14.4% (#3)
2 PT FG%: UNC 50.7% (#8) - WF 52.2% (#6)
3 PT FG%: UNC 29.6% (#15) - WF 38.3% (#1)
Effective FG%: UNC 48.4% (#14) - WF54.6% (#1)

Defense
Efficiency: UNC 98.7 (#2) - WF 107.5 (#10)
TO%: UNC 15.8 (#9) - 16.8 (#5)
2 PT FG%: UNC 50.3% - WF 52.2% (#12)
3 PT FG%: UNC 32.4 (#4) - WF 36.1% (#12)
Effective FG%: UNC 49.8% (#6) - WF 53% (#10)

Projection: KP 78-77; Torvik 79-77

Deacs catch UNC off back to back losses, including Saturday's over-hyped UNC 63-57 loss to Duke. UNC's offense has struggled over the last two games, particularly from three: 12 for 54 (22%). That said, UNC's best offensive performance in an ACC game this season (yes, a better offensive performance than when UNC played weaklings Notre Dame and L'ville) was its 88 point (1.24 points possession) output against WF. So, facing the soft WF D may help the UNC offense get back on track.

WF was unbeaten at home (10-0) until the last two close losses to UVA and NC State. While UNC needs a win, this is almost an elimination game for WF as the Deacs are already on the wrong side of the bubble (that said, a UNC loss would nudge the Heels to the bubble as well). So, with UNC off the Duke game and given WF greater need for a win, the Deacs have a motivational edge.

The metrics suggest a tight high-scoring contest. Think this game will be played at a slower tempo as both teams have shortened their bench as the season has continued. Would love a blowout, like the Deacs 98-76 beatdown over UNC last year, but think this game will be tight and decided in WF's favor by a missed Caleb Love 3 pointer in the final seconds.
 
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Did Duke slow the pace down? Low scoring game.

UNC likes to get out and get easy baskets (since about 1972), and especially Davis/Love backcourt --- make them play in the half court???
 
I think this is an exact replica of the ND game. Bad at first, close at half, busts wide open in the second.
 
I had a thought last night that this feels very similar to the UNC game in Winston last year.

Need Damari to get hot and hope Love shoots them out of it (which he very well can).
 
Normally it worries me when a team is coming off a close loss since you figure they'll follow it up with a better performance, but Duke pretty much played like ass and still beat them. The endless announcer hype and the fact that the game was close really disguised what was a low quality game on both sides. If we can just get a reasonable performance from our bigs defensively and on the boards I think we can get this one.
 
Forbes is saying we should avoid the "atomic bombs" where we throw the ball to UNC on the perimeter and they take it down and get layup or dunk.

Good strategy.
 
Complacent Deac said:
Did Duke slow the pace down? Low scoring game.

UNC likes to get out and get easy baskets (since about 1972), and especially Davis/Love backcourt --- make them play in the half court???
Click to expand...
66 possessions which is a little closer to Duke’s pace (65.5) than UNC’s (68) but largely just some bad offense
 
I’d say we should figure out how to front the post if we go small with Carr at the 5, but Bacot is going to drop 15-20 regardless. He’s very effective in the painted area. Bradford may actually be our best bet.

And I know the jury is still out on some of the zone we have played this year, but I’d love to mix some of that in to limit touches inside. I don’t trust UNC to light us up from deep and that seems like a worthwhile trade off.

This is going to be a tough game. We need Ty to play one of his best games of the year. Limit TOs and run our offense. UNC really sped us up the last time we played and points off turnovers were a killer.
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
I’d say we should figure out how to front the post if we go small with Carr at the 5, but Bacot is going to drop 15-20 regardless. He’s very effective in the painted area. Bradford may actually be our best bet.

And I know the jury is still out on some of the zone we have played this year, but I’d love to mix some of that in to limit touches inside. I don’t trust UNC to light us up from deep and that seems like a worthwhile trade off.

This is going to be a tough game. We need Ty to play one of his best games of the year. Limit TOs and run our offense. UNC really sped us up the last time we played and points off turnovers were a killer.
Click to expand...
I'd like to see some 1-3-1 too, especially when Bacot is not in. Their best offense is Bacot grabbing offensive rebounds, which becomes easier for them in a zone.
 
Rafi said:
I'd like to see some 1-3-1 too, especially when Bacot is not in. Their best offense is Bacot grabbing offensive rebounds, which becomes easier for them in a zone.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's the one downside. I'd still like to see Bacot have to work to grab offensive rebounds instead of getting fed in the post and lighting us up (a la Burns vs. Marsh).
 
Complacent Deac said:
Did Duke slow the pace down? Low scoring game.

UNC likes to get out and get easy baskets (since about 1972), and especially Davis/Love backcourt --- make them play in the half court???
Click to expand...
Both teams shot like crap.
 
UNC has shot like crap all season. They are DFL (and there are some horrible shooting ACC teams) in three point % in the conference.
 
Since Wake is at home the Deacs need to take it to the heels like Miami is schooling Duke this evening.
 
Give them looks from 3 early. If they are missing, let them fire away. If they are hitting early, have to trust our bigs to limit Bacot
 
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