Pilchard
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Kind of a big game coming up against Duke this weekend. Might want to watch and/or attend.
This is game #2 against the Devils (WF lost 77-69 at Cameron on February 12; as an FYI, the FT disparity in that game was 25-13 in Dook's favor). Here is KP's take on WF and Duke looking at ACC games only (all ranks are out of the 15 conference teams):
ACC Analytics:
Duke Offense ----- WF Defense
Eff.: 115 #1 ---------- 99 #3
Eff. FG%: 54 #2 --------- 48 #3
TO%: 15.2 #6 -------- 14.8 #11
3 PT%: 38 #2 ---------- 31 #3
2 PT% 52 #6 ---------- 48 #5
WF Offense ------ Duke Defense
Eff.: 111 #4 --------- 101 #5
Eff. FG%: 54 #3 ------- 49 #4
TO%: 16 #9 ------- 16 #8
3 PT%: 37 #3 -------- 31 #2
2 PT% 52 #4 -------- 50 #8
In ACC play, Duke is the slightly better offensive team, and WF is the slightly better defensive team. Duke struggles to defend the paint. WF shoots FTs better than Duke (81 to 71). Both teams shoot and defend the three well; playing at home seems to mean a lot in three point shot department as WF is shooting 42% from three at home and 29% on the road. Duke has been on fire from three in its last two ACC wins over FSU and Miami (23 for 45 51%). Perhaps, the Devils are due for shooting regression.
While these metrics generally track with Torvik, the impact of multiple ACC blowouts for WF has Torvik's power rating the Deacs as the #1 team in the ACC in ACC games only (UNC is #2 and Duke is #3). Do the Deacs get anything if WF finishes 4th in the ACC, but holds the title of the best power rating in conference games?
Not all of the news from Torvik is great however as WF's power rating against "quality" opponents (both ACC and OOC) is #72 and WF is 1-6 in quality games (which is slightly worse than WF current 1-5 Q1 record). To further beat the dead horse, WF needs a quality win regardless of the metric used.
Projection:
KP Duke 76-75
Torvik WF 75-74
Deacs are the only ACC home unbeaten. Duke is 6-2 on the ACC road (the Devils lost their ACC opener at GT, and lost at UNC). This is Duke's third straight roadie after comfortable road wins at FSU and Miami. Duke has won 5 straight games since losing at UNC. Like WF, Duke has a number of different players that can score. Against Miami, Duke had 5 players in double figures, while frosh Jared McCain scored 7. In the previous game against FSU, McCain went off for 35, including 8 for 11 from three. This game will be tough, but Deacs are overdue to breakthrough against a quality opponent, and by any measure, Duke is a quality opponent. Also, would look at the over in this game (if the total is around 150 as projected), in WF's last 4 ACC home games, WF has scored 91, 83, 99 and 90. Except for the home win over UVA, WF has scored at least 83 points in every ACC home game. In the previous game at Cameron, Duke and WF combined for 146 points despite WF shooting 6 for 26 (23% from three) and Duke shooting 7 for 25 (28% from three). Would expect both teams to have more success from deep.
Huge opportunity. Let's grab it. You ready?
This is game #2 against the Devils (WF lost 77-69 at Cameron on February 12; as an FYI, the FT disparity in that game was 25-13 in Dook's favor). Here is KP's take on WF and Duke looking at ACC games only (all ranks are out of the 15 conference teams):
ACC Analytics:
Duke Offense ----- WF Defense
Eff.: 115 #1 ---------- 99 #3
Eff. FG%: 54 #2 --------- 48 #3
TO%: 15.2 #6 -------- 14.8 #11
3 PT%: 38 #2 ---------- 31 #3
2 PT% 52 #6 ---------- 48 #5
WF Offense ------ Duke Defense
Eff.: 111 #4 --------- 101 #5
Eff. FG%: 54 #3 ------- 49 #4
TO%: 16 #9 ------- 16 #8
3 PT%: 37 #3 -------- 31 #2
2 PT% 52 #4 -------- 50 #8
In ACC play, Duke is the slightly better offensive team, and WF is the slightly better defensive team. Duke struggles to defend the paint. WF shoots FTs better than Duke (81 to 71). Both teams shoot and defend the three well; playing at home seems to mean a lot in three point shot department as WF is shooting 42% from three at home and 29% on the road. Duke has been on fire from three in its last two ACC wins over FSU and Miami (23 for 45 51%). Perhaps, the Devils are due for shooting regression.
While these metrics generally track with Torvik, the impact of multiple ACC blowouts for WF has Torvik's power rating the Deacs as the #1 team in the ACC in ACC games only (UNC is #2 and Duke is #3). Do the Deacs get anything if WF finishes 4th in the ACC, but holds the title of the best power rating in conference games?
Not all of the news from Torvik is great however as WF's power rating against "quality" opponents (both ACC and OOC) is #72 and WF is 1-6 in quality games (which is slightly worse than WF current 1-5 Q1 record). To further beat the dead horse, WF needs a quality win regardless of the metric used.
Projection:
KP Duke 76-75
Torvik WF 75-74
Deacs are the only ACC home unbeaten. Duke is 6-2 on the ACC road (the Devils lost their ACC opener at GT, and lost at UNC). This is Duke's third straight roadie after comfortable road wins at FSU and Miami. Duke has won 5 straight games since losing at UNC. Like WF, Duke has a number of different players that can score. Against Miami, Duke had 5 players in double figures, while frosh Jared McCain scored 7. In the previous game against FSU, McCain went off for 35, including 8 for 11 from three. This game will be tough, but Deacs are overdue to breakthrough against a quality opponent, and by any measure, Duke is a quality opponent. Also, would look at the over in this game (if the total is around 150 as projected), in WF's last 4 ACC home games, WF has scored 91, 83, 99 and 90. Except for the home win over UVA, WF has scored at least 83 points in every ACC home game. In the previous game at Cameron, Duke and WF combined for 146 points despite WF shooting 6 for 26 (23% from three) and Duke shooting 7 for 25 (28% from three). Would expect both teams to have more success from deep.
Huge opportunity. Let's grab it. You ready?
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