Pilchard
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Fresh off a nice little win over Duke, our Deacs head to northern Indiana (nothing says 'Atlantic Coast' like northern Indiana) for a classic trap game.
ND 10-17 (5-11) #136. Heading into this season, the Irish looked to have a historically awful ACC roster. ND had lost over 95% of its scoring and minutes from a team that went 3-17 in the ACC in 2023. Further, the new Irish coach Micah Shrewsberry got the job in the Spring; so there was a limited chance to rebuild the roster, resulting in an exceptionally young team. ND's season bottomed out on December 19, when SOCON cellar dwellar Citadel crushed the Irish by 19 in South Bend. To give an idea how awful the Citadel loss was, Citadel beat the Irish by a larger margin than it beat North Greenville, a bad DII team. At that point, ND had dropped to #226 in the nation, and it looked like the Irish might be the worst power conference team, yes, worse than Depaul.
The thing is, Micah Shrewsberry can coach. It took him just two years to build an NCAAT team (and they won a game) at perenially sub-par Penn State. Shrewsberry will win at Notre Dame, probably sooner than it presently appears. Since the Citadel embarassment, Notre Dame has improved the level of play as ND is now up to #136. In fact, since the Citadel loss, according to Torvik, ND has played better basketball than BC, GT and L'ville. The Irish have won 5 ACC games (which was unthinkable when the season started), including beating UVA and VT in South Bend. The point is that ND is not talented, but they are well-coached, they play hard and they can beat teams that aren't ready for a fight.
Analytics. You think UVA plays slow? ND plays slower. Yes, slower. The Irish have the longest offensive average possession length in the ACC. Only one ACC opponent has scored more than 67 points at South Bend this year. Many struggle to crack 60 (UVA - 54, NC State - 54, Duke - 67, BC - 61, VT - 66, GT - 55). In addition, to playing slow, ND plays elite defense. As ND ranks 2nd in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency as set forth below.
Expect a rock fight (ACC games only; rank out of the 15 ACC teams):
WF Offense ------------- ND Defense
Eff. 112 #2 ------------------ 100 #2
Eff. FG% 55% #1 -------------- 47 #2
TO % 16 #8 ------------------ 15 #10
3 PT% 38 #2 ----------------- 34 #6
2 PT% 53 #3 ---------------- 46 #1
ND Offense ----------- WF Defense
Eff. 97 #15 ------------------ 101 #4
Eff. FG% 48 #15 ------------- 48 #3
TO % 20 #15 ---------------- 15 #11
3 PT% 34 #9 ----------------- 32 #3
2 PT% 46 # 15 -------------- 48 #6
Notre Dame is #357 (out of 362) in experience, and ND (#129) plays its bench far more extensively than WF (#326). ND's offense is massively three point reliant as 38% of their offense in ACC games comes from three; makes sense as the three point shot brings in more variance to the final result; if ND hits threes, with the way the Irish defend, they can beat better teams.
Roster:
In this weekend's 88-85 loss at Cuse (ND somehow scored 56 points in the 2nd half), the Irish started;
5-11 1st year Markus Burton: ND was Burton's only power conference offer, but he's had a huge freshman year; leads the Irish in scoring (17 ppg), assists (4) and steals (2+); scored 28 at Cuse; double figures in 25 of 27 games
6-3 1st year Braden Shrewsberry: Coach's kid; was horrid to start the season, but has come on; 45% from three in ACC play; 13 for 20 from deep in his last two games; 10 ppg
6-9 2nd year Tae Davis: Seton Hall transfer; 2nd in boards (5 rpg); can't shoot 15% from three; 8 ppg
6-10 1st year Casey Booth: top rated 2024 ND recruit; son of NBA player Calvin Booth; 26% from threes 62% from two; hasn't scored in double figures in 2024
6-10 2nd year Kebba Njie: Penn State transfer; leads team in rebounds and blocks;
Bench: 6-4 Julian Roper (NW transfer; 6 ppg; 32% from three; 4 rpg); 6-7 JR Konieczeny (starter for most of the season; 9 ppg; 5 rpg).
The Projection:
KP: WF 71-63
Torvik: WF 69-63
This is WF's toughest situational spot of the season. WF is coming a season-altering win over rival Duke. Notre Dame is as bland a foe as there is in the conference, the game is a late start (9 pm), the crowd won't be paying attention and the Irish style of play of grinding out posessions and playing good defense, limits WF's talent edge. There will be overwhelming smart money on the Irish, and fully expect the line to move in ND's favor after this game opens. Think this a prime under spot as well as Shrewsberry will implore his team to play as slow as possible, as a track meet would end this game early. Think this game will be tight, low-scoring and the Deacs win by less than the spread and the game goes under. Have to mention that Damari Monsanto had 28 points in 30 minutes at ND last year; so, he apparently likes the rims in South Bend. Also, Parker F initially committed to ND; so, this game will have particular significance to him.
Will be happy with any win, but don't be surprised if this game 27-26 at halftime and in the low 60s at the final buzzer. Just survive this game.
ND 10-17 (5-11) #136. Heading into this season, the Irish looked to have a historically awful ACC roster. ND had lost over 95% of its scoring and minutes from a team that went 3-17 in the ACC in 2023. Further, the new Irish coach Micah Shrewsberry got the job in the Spring; so there was a limited chance to rebuild the roster, resulting in an exceptionally young team. ND's season bottomed out on December 19, when SOCON cellar dwellar Citadel crushed the Irish by 19 in South Bend. To give an idea how awful the Citadel loss was, Citadel beat the Irish by a larger margin than it beat North Greenville, a bad DII team. At that point, ND had dropped to #226 in the nation, and it looked like the Irish might be the worst power conference team, yes, worse than Depaul.
The thing is, Micah Shrewsberry can coach. It took him just two years to build an NCAAT team (and they won a game) at perenially sub-par Penn State. Shrewsberry will win at Notre Dame, probably sooner than it presently appears. Since the Citadel embarassment, Notre Dame has improved the level of play as ND is now up to #136. In fact, since the Citadel loss, according to Torvik, ND has played better basketball than BC, GT and L'ville. The Irish have won 5 ACC games (which was unthinkable when the season started), including beating UVA and VT in South Bend. The point is that ND is not talented, but they are well-coached, they play hard and they can beat teams that aren't ready for a fight.
Analytics. You think UVA plays slow? ND plays slower. Yes, slower. The Irish have the longest offensive average possession length in the ACC. Only one ACC opponent has scored more than 67 points at South Bend this year. Many struggle to crack 60 (UVA - 54, NC State - 54, Duke - 67, BC - 61, VT - 66, GT - 55). In addition, to playing slow, ND plays elite defense. As ND ranks 2nd in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency as set forth below.
Expect a rock fight (ACC games only; rank out of the 15 ACC teams):
WF Offense ------------- ND Defense
Eff. 112 #2 ------------------ 100 #2
Eff. FG% 55% #1 -------------- 47 #2
TO % 16 #8 ------------------ 15 #10
3 PT% 38 #2 ----------------- 34 #6
2 PT% 53 #3 ---------------- 46 #1
ND Offense ----------- WF Defense
Eff. 97 #15 ------------------ 101 #4
Eff. FG% 48 #15 ------------- 48 #3
TO % 20 #15 ---------------- 15 #11
3 PT% 34 #9 ----------------- 32 #3
2 PT% 46 # 15 -------------- 48 #6
Notre Dame is #357 (out of 362) in experience, and ND (#129) plays its bench far more extensively than WF (#326). ND's offense is massively three point reliant as 38% of their offense in ACC games comes from three; makes sense as the three point shot brings in more variance to the final result; if ND hits threes, with the way the Irish defend, they can beat better teams.
Roster:
In this weekend's 88-85 loss at Cuse (ND somehow scored 56 points in the 2nd half), the Irish started;
5-11 1st year Markus Burton: ND was Burton's only power conference offer, but he's had a huge freshman year; leads the Irish in scoring (17 ppg), assists (4) and steals (2+); scored 28 at Cuse; double figures in 25 of 27 games
6-3 1st year Braden Shrewsberry: Coach's kid; was horrid to start the season, but has come on; 45% from three in ACC play; 13 for 20 from deep in his last two games; 10 ppg
6-9 2nd year Tae Davis: Seton Hall transfer; 2nd in boards (5 rpg); can't shoot 15% from three; 8 ppg
6-10 1st year Casey Booth: top rated 2024 ND recruit; son of NBA player Calvin Booth; 26% from threes 62% from two; hasn't scored in double figures in 2024
6-10 2nd year Kebba Njie: Penn State transfer; leads team in rebounds and blocks;
Bench: 6-4 Julian Roper (NW transfer; 6 ppg; 32% from three; 4 rpg); 6-7 JR Konieczeny (starter for most of the season; 9 ppg; 5 rpg).
The Projection:
KP: WF 71-63
Torvik: WF 69-63
This is WF's toughest situational spot of the season. WF is coming a season-altering win over rival Duke. Notre Dame is as bland a foe as there is in the conference, the game is a late start (9 pm), the crowd won't be paying attention and the Irish style of play of grinding out posessions and playing good defense, limits WF's talent edge. There will be overwhelming smart money on the Irish, and fully expect the line to move in ND's favor after this game opens. Think this a prime under spot as well as Shrewsberry will implore his team to play as slow as possible, as a track meet would end this game early. Think this game will be tight, low-scoring and the Deacs win by less than the spread and the game goes under. Have to mention that Damari Monsanto had 28 points in 30 minutes at ND last year; so, he apparently likes the rims in South Bend. Also, Parker F initially committed to ND; so, this game will have particular significance to him.
Will be happy with any win, but don't be surprised if this game 27-26 at halftime and in the low 60s at the final buzzer. Just survive this game.
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