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MBB Game 30: GT - LJVM - Tuesday 9 pm - ACCN

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Man, did the perspective on the WF MBB basketball season shift over the week.

WF basketball and its fans were feeling themselves after beating Duke on February 24. Then, after two solid first halves, the Deacs lost the two 2nd halves at ND and at VT by a collective score of 82-50....

200w.gif


Now, WF needs to sweep its last two regular season games, starting with tomorrow night against the Jackets.

GT Update:

GT 13-16 (6-12 T12 in the ACC).
Four weeks ago, the Deacs played their best road game of the season annhilating GT 80-51; the game wasn't that close as WF led 35-6 and 70-32. The link to the thread on that game.

Coach Stoudamire's succinct opening statement after WF win at McCammish:



Since WF thrashed the Jackets, GT has gone 3-3:
  • L @ L'ville 67-79
  • L @ ND 55-58
  • W Cuse 65-60
  • L Clemson 57-81
  • W @ Miami 80-76
  • W FSU 85-75
Analytics

Torvik rates GT and WF since the Deacs won in Atlanta:

GT
#123 in the nation
Offensive efficiency: 105.5 #197
Defensive efficiency: 101.1 #77

WF
#34 in the nation
Offensive efficiency: 120.4 #24
Defensive efficiency: 101.9 #84

Both WF and GT have averaged 67 possessions per game (#213) since the Febrary 6 tilt in Atlanta.

The Projection:
KP and Torvik both pick WF to win 82-68.

"Must win games" have been talked about on this Board for months. As WF sits squarely on the bubble today, in retrospect, none of WF's previous 29 games were 'must win' as WF can still play its way in or out of the bubble. This game is different. WF must win this game tomorrow, or its only path to the NCAAT would be to win the ACCT (something WF hasn't done in 28 years). So, for once, 'the must win' designation applies, unless you are counting on WF cutting down the nets in DC next week.

We all know how dominant WF has been at home this year, with a perfect 15-0 home mark, 5 home conference wins by 19 or more points and the 4th best home court advantage out of the 362 college teams according to KP. So, in addition to WF's talent edge, the venue heavily favors our Deacs. Plus, WF toyed with the Jackets at Atlanta 4 weeks ago.

KP puts WF's win % at 89%, and given the foregoing numbers, the Deacs win probability is higher than that. Even so, can't recommend taking WF giving 14+ points. GT was embarrassed last time out, and they have played two of their better games recently winning in Miami and crusing against FSU (GT never trailed in the 2nd half). Not saying that the Deacs are in trouble tomorrow against the Jackets, just think this game may stay tight for awhile. Do like the under 150 as WF doesn't have much of a bench right now, more minutes for MMM and fewer minutes (or zero minutes) for Damari means less O and better D, and also think the tempo will be slower than WF's recent home tilts. Just win baby.
 
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This would be a "wheels are coming off" type loss. I was at this game last year and it ended up being a nail biter. With that said, I think we win big. I imagine we'll have a slim crowd with students on break, 9pm tip, and two losses. Hopefully we get a big lead and confidence back up going into Clemson on Saturday.

Correction- students are not on break
 
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Losing this would be similar to our home loss to BC last year. Gotta avoid it but sadly can't say I would be surprised if we failed to.
 
ProbationDeac said:
This would be a "wheels are coming off" type loss. I was at this game last year and it ended up being a nail biter. With that said, I think we win big. I imagine we'll have a slim crowd with students on break, 9pm tip, and two losses. Hopefully we get a big lead and confidence back up going into Clemson on Saturday.
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Students aren’t on break yet
 
We have had at least 2 times we felt the team was imploding and they came fighting back. This time the team looks different - I think they are cooked and GT ends our season. Good news is I called for the end of the season after the Carolina loss so I’m 0-1.
 
We have lost how many road games in the same manner this year? And we have lost how many home games following those road debacles? Sign me up for a dominating 2-0 this week.

But once we hit a neutral court next week, all bets are off.
 
ProbationDeac said:
This would be a "wheels are coming off" type loss. I was at this game last year and it ended up being a nail biter. With that said, I think we win big. I imagine we'll have a slim crowd with students on break, 9pm tip, and two losses. Hopefully we get a big lead and confidence back up going into Clemson on Saturday.
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If anyone has tickets they aren't going to use, I'll be happy to take them off your hands.
 
deacz said:
We have lost how many road games in the same manner this year? And we have lost how many home games following those road debacles? Sign me up for a dominating 2-0 this week.

But once we hit a neutral court next week, all bets are off.
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Technically we haven't seen this team on a neutral court without Efton, Damari or Marsh LOL.

Just hoping for the best at this point. Please fucking win - this is the same feeling when my ex led me on for 3 years in college. Even she wasn't this cruel
 
I expect us to do what we have done at home all year - beat the hell out of inferior teams. Deacs by 10+ at least setting up a huge game on Saturday.

For all the consternation, if we were given this scenario to start the season then we would all 100% take it. Obviously we should be a 23-24 win team instead of an 18 win team, but you are what your record says you are, and we've just choked on our apple sauce 6 times on the road this season.

Shit happens - let's grab these two games and make the tournament.
 
I'll believe this isn't a trap game we we walk out with a double digit win. Hopefully we wouldn't get trapped twice within a week's time.
 
Complacent Deac said:
Forbes looked and sounded really stressed on that ACC Zoom call.
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I agree. I don't think he handled the zoom call questions well or the post VT questions well.

Maybe I am biased by my frustration with the last two games, but he does not seem to be suggesting that he is working towards some kind of resolution to our second half road game problems. It just kind of feels like he is throwing his hands up at the problem at this point.
 
Lunardi has us as the last team in this am. Feel like we win these next two at home and we are in the tournament.
 
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