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MBB Game 35: Deacs @ A&M -- Wednesday 7 pm - ESPN 2

Pilchard

Pilchard

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This Wednesday, our Deacs invade Reed Arena in College Station to face the Aggies with a MSG trip on the line.

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Here's the rundown on Buzz Williams' squad:

2021-22 Season: 25-12 #48. The Aggie season can be divided into 3 segments:

Started the season hot: 15-2 with wins over #39 Notre Dame (by 6) and #18 Arkansas (by 5)

Mid-season swoon: losing 8 straight and 9 of 10 between January 19 and February 19, including ugly home losses to #99 S. Carolina and #140 Mizzou.

Closed on a roll: currently on a 9-1 run with wins over #30 Bama by 16, #13 Auburn by 5, #18 Arkansas by 18. In the NIT, A&M has beaten #262 Alcorn State by 12 and #81 Oregon by 15.

WF and A&M played 3 common opponents: both beat ND and Oregon State; both lost to LSU (A&M lost to LSU twice)

Analytics: KP rates the Aggies as the #64 team on offense and the #39 team on defense. Offensively, A&M pounds on offensive glass (#20 in the nation; #3 in SEC in offensive rebounding %) and draws fouls (#48 in FT rate). A&M has been a poor shooting team for most of the season #215 in 3 PT % and only 27% of their offense comes from 3s (#273), but A&M was smoking from deep during their SEC Tourney run (over 50% in each of their first 3 SECT games). Defensively, A&M applies max ball pressure as the Aggies are #3 in the nation in steal rate, and #9 in the country in TO rate (yikes for WF fans). Even though A&M excels at grabbing offensive boards, the Aggies struggle to rebound on defense (#345 in opponents' offensive rebound rate). A&M plays a moderate to slow tempo (66.5 possessions per game #211); in Saturday's Oregon game, Aggies were limited to 61 possessions. A&M is deep; #24 in bench minutes.

Roster:

In the win over the Ducks, the Aggies started:

G 6-0 Fr. Wade Taylor: On Feb. 22, Taylor started his 2nd game of the season, since then, A&M is 9-1; 2nd in assists; 28% from 3;
G 6-2 Jr. Tyrece Radford: Felon; transferred from VT; 42% from 3; 2nd in boards -- an incredible rebounder for his size
G/F 6-4 Fr. Manny Obaseki: also began starting on February 22; 28% from 3; 2nd double figure game of the season in the NIT win over Oregon
F 6-5 Sr. Quenton Jackson: leading scorer (14.5 ppg); 2nd in blocks; 36% from 3; leads team in steals and TOs;
C 6-8 So. Henry Coleman: Duke transfer (played against WF last year; don't remember him); leading rebounder; no threat from 3

Bench:

G 6-2 Jr. Andre Gordon: 3 year starter until Wade Taylor took over his spot in February; 38% from 3; active defensively
G/F 6-6 So. Hayden Hefner: 33% from 3; A&M started rolling when Hefner was added to the rotation
G 6-2 So. Hassan Darrra: 29% from 3; 6 ppg and 2 rpg
F 6-8 Sr. Ethan Henderson: started 14 games; minutes dwindling; leads team in blocks; doesn't shoot the 3

The Projection: KP projects a 76-73 Aggie win; Torvik projects 74-72 Aggies. WF is 17-2 at home this year, and 8-7 on the road or on a neutral court. Hard to believe: Wednesday's game at A&M's Reed Arena will be WF first road game in 4 weeks. The last one was the Clemson debacle. Deacs must be ready to play its best game in unfamiliar/angry surroundings. Like this past Saturday, the key will be TOs. WF had a +4 TO rate in Saturday's win; yes, VCU had more TOs than WF on Saturday. Helps WF to have played VCU this past Saturday as both opponents apply max ball pressure. If WF can limit TOs, WF has a huge edge inside as WF has a height edge at every spot on the floor. Also, the reffs will be big in this game as A&M looks to get its points inside and at the line on offense and A&M pushes the limits on D when trying to force TOs. Should be a fun game; would love WF if the Deacs were hosting, but winning at A&M won't be easy.
 
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It's kind of a weird situation.

If we beat A&M @ A&M, I'm going to more than ever feel like we absolutely should have made the tourney and this is absolute bullshit.

But of course I want us to win.

I actually think we'll put up a good effort given there is really nothing to lose. The team might actually enjoy the road environment.

But if we lose... Oh well. On to the offseason, which is also entertaining for me.
 
A&M is offering free parking and admission to this game per Twitter. Should be a big crowd.
 
deachus said:
A&M is offering free parking and admission to this game per Twitter. Should be a big crowd.
Click to expand...

Wake said the NIT required them to charge admission, which is why Currie and Forbes were donating tickets for students. How is A&M doing the free admission?
 
So I'm assuming the school and the NIT splits the proceeds. I wonder how much you get for advancing to New York and winning there
 
Got to see some of A&M versus Oregon.

They are small, it's all spread the floor, dribble drive; cut off a screen, catch, dribble into paint and go to the rim --- trying to get our bigs in foul trouble. Go bananas when you don't get the call at the rim...you know...that junk and we've seen this before from BC recently with Grant getting that T.

Forbes will need to do his very best job for us to win. If we are very patient, and our bigs are patient, we completely outclass them in the paint. Issue is their style is like Miami, spread us out, dribble drive. We don't do so well against that.

Oh, and they have a nice fast break, with a nice secondary break, if they force a TURNOVER.

Be Very Patient on offense, take care of the ball, try to win 74-72. Walton needs to be large and have cement feet - do not leave the floor for blocks, just play position basketball and not try to win 100-50 and outrun them. He will be matched up with Henry Coleman and should be able to outplay him, in theory.

Mucius needs to play his best game and use his size to grab boards at both ends, as he will have a legit size differential. Boards - extra possessions, patient with those possessions. He will be matched up with a 6'4 FR, Obesaki, again, in theory, we should have an advantage.

Jake - he should be able to get any shot he wants in this game, if patient with the ball and not over-dribbling. Could hit lots of those baby hooks in the lane. On defense, they will spread it out, which could be an issue for him, no question.

We can definitely win. But based on BC and Miami stylistically, and Buzz going nuts every time they drive the paint ad nauseum, and a nice home court crowd and advantage --- it's going to be tough.
 
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ChrisL68 said:
So I'm assuming the school and the NIT splits the proceeds. I wonder how much you get for advancing to New York and winning there
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Yeah. A standard SEC wad of cash probably addressed any NIT concerns about admission.
 
Good point about wad of cash.

I've never been on the receiving end of that, but assume it is in excess of 20 grand?
 
deachus said:
A&M is offering free parking and admission to this game per Twitter. Should be a big crowd.
Click to expand...

It is open seating as well, but you have to move for any season ticket holder that attends.

I am taking my two kids, but leaving my Aggie wife at home. Is anyone else going? With the open seating we should try to sit in the same section. I am not sure when doors open.
 
Watched the Buzz Williams press conference where he complained about the NCAAT and wondered - when did my dude grow hair? Wasn't he bald as a cue ball when he was coaching VT? Maybe my memory is incorrect - lots of strands and also this was the BZ/Manning era when I'd largely checked out of college basketball.
 
Man, what if Forbes left for the SEC and grew hair ?
 
I see the comparison to Miami, but looks like they are not nearly the shooting team they are. They turn the ball over quite a bit, as well. They are excellent defensively and rebound extremely well for a small team. Don't take many 3PA.

Would be one of our best wins this season. If we get past A&M, looks like we would be favored against any of the remaining opponent on a neutral floor.

We haven't had a sub 70 posession game since @Clemson. We are one of the fastest teams in the nation, they are quite slow. If we speed the game up, they may struggle. Wondering how much they try to press us.
 
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Say Hey Deac said:
Watched the Buzz Williams press conference where he complained about the NCAAT and wondered - when did my dude grow hair? Wasn't he bald as a cue ball when he was coaching VT? Maybe my memory is incorrect - lots of strands and also this was the BZ/Manning era when I'd largely checked out of college basketball.
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2664_500.jpg
 
PaddyWF said:
I see the comparison to Miami, but looks like they are not nearly the shooting team they are. They turn the ball over quite a bit, as well. They are excellent defensively and rebound extremely well for a small team. Don't take many 3PA.

Would be one of our best wins this season. If we get past A&M, looks like we would be favored against any of the remaining opponent on a neutral floor.
Click to expand...

at the end of the day, they're in the NIT so I'm not scared of them. we beat the shit out of Carolina, and almost (should've?) beat Duke on the road.
 
Hey we are heading down tomorrow. Anyone know any good steak houses in town?
 
Say Hey Deac said:
Watched the Buzz Williams press conference where he complained about the NCAAT and wondered - when did my dude grow hair? Wasn't he bald as a cue ball when he was coaching VT? Maybe my memory is incorrect - lots of strands and also this was the BZ/Manning era when I'd largely checked out of college basketball.
Click to expand...

dude is definitely one of those guys that had some hair procedure one offseason and showed up like no one would notice
 
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