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MBB Game 4: Towson Tigers CC Loser Round - 7 pm ESPNU

Pilchard

Pilchard

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The Deacs, now #76 in KP's ratings and #78 in Torvik, have to regroup tonight against the Towson Tigers in what is a "must win" game. Here is a very quick take on the Tigers:

2023-4 Towson (2-2 #136):
Towson results to date:

#18 Colorado L 75-57
#360 Coppin State W 70-49
#279 Robert Morris W 66-62
#2 Houston 65-49

The one analytic that sticks out for the Tigers is that they have played super-slow so far this season #358 in pace; #357 in length of offensive possession (21.1 seconds). Otherwise, Towson has been strong on the offensive boards (#44) and getting to the line on offense (#72). Defensively, Towson has been strong defending the 2 (#72), but has been hurt from deep (#307 in opponents 3 point FG%).

Roster:

Starting lineup in last night's loss to Houston:

6-0 Jr. Rahdir Hicks: doesn't score much (4 ppg) and has an alarming assist to TO ratio (4/5); 10 career starts
6-5 So. Christian May: leading scorer against Houston; 10 points; 3 for 19 from three on the season; 30% from the line; 94% last year; better shooter than he has played so far
6-6 Sr. Messiah Jones: Wofford transfer; leads team in O rating (122); 8 ppg; 4.5 rpg; 3 for 5 from three
6-7 Sr. Charles Thompson: 5th year player; two-time all CAA; known for his D; 10 ppg; 8 points; 9 boards; 2 assists against Houston
6-8 Fr. Taylor Tejada: leading three point shooter (7 for 12); 6 points and 6 boards against Houston

The Tigers also sought a waiver for transfer Nendah Tarke (Coppin State), as Tarke was expected to start, but to date he is not eligible.

The projection: KP projects a 70-65 WF in 64 possessions; Torvik 74-67 WF. The game opened at WF -5 141; and the sharps jumped on the under because of Towson's slow pace; the line is 4.5 and 137. Hard to play back to back with a 7 man rotation; agree with the action on the under as Towson plays slow, and given the Deacs lack of depth, WF doesn't have the roster to push the pace. Deacs should win, but expect a slow low-scoring slog.
 
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Kind of the classic case of "wow this team should suck" and "they're not as bad as people think they are." TLDR: just win the game
 
FWIW, Towson played at Clemson last year (and Clemson was pretty good), and Clemson won 80-75. As numbers stated, Towson is truly mediocre, but not terrible. They know how to hang in games.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Kind of the classic case of "wow this team should suck" and "they're not as bad as people think they are." TLDR: just win the game
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Yeah, it's the optics of it and Towson doesn't sound like a slouch, but it sure would be nice to just go out and bury somebody. It's kind of scary to think we're 1-2 and were down by what, 24 points at one time in the one game we've won? We came back and won going away, but that could've turned out much differently.
 
Is there any data on how teams generally do the game after they play Houston? Like, will our relative (and absolute) lack of defense make the basket seem 10 feet wide? Or do they typically have a prolonged hangover?
 
I love the write up as always! (Towson isn’t 4-0 is my only comment — I too need more coffee).

This board is not in a good head space this morning. And I can’t be the only one that is sort of dreading tonight’s game.
 
Haros said:
I love the write up as always! (Towson isn’t 4-0 is my only comment — I too need more coffee).

This board is not in a good head space this morning. And I can’t be the only one that is sort of dreading tonight’s game.
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Corrected. Thanks!
 
My primary concerns about this game are:

  • WF's mental state; Deacs played with great effort last night for 30+ minutes, but collapsed late largely because of injury/depth issues
    • Won't be easy to bounce back from the late loss when WF was so close to playing Final 4 favorite Houston
    • Now WF has to get up to play Towson
  • OTOH, Towson didn't expect to beat Houston and will play loose on the 2nd day as this tournament is likely the only time that Towson will play in nationally televised games this season (IIRC, the CAA plays their games on the FLO Network, which essentially means only their parents are watching the games)
  • Obviously, depth issues; WF's three best players (Cam, Sallis, Carr) went hard for 35+ minutes last night; Towson had only one guy play more than 27 minutes; they played a 10 man rotation
WF is obviously better, but Towson is a solid mid-major team that will play hard for 40 minutes. A lot to lose; not a lot to gain for WF tonight.
 
Pilchard said:
My primary concerns about this game are:

  • WF's mental state; Deacs played with great effort last night for 30+ minutes, but collapsed late largely because of injury/depth issues
    • Won't be easy to bounce back from the late loss when WF was so close to playing Final 4 favorite Houston
    • Now WF has to get up to play Towson
  • OTOH, Towson didn't expect to beat Houston and will play loose on the 2nd day as this tournament is likely the only time that Towson will play in nationally televised games this season (IIRC, the CAA plays their games on the FLO Network, which essentially means only their parents are watching the games)
  • Obviously, depth issues; WF's three best players (Cam, Sallis, Carr) went hard for 35+ minutes last night; Towson had only one guy play more than 27 minutes; they played a 10 man rotation
WF is obviously better, but Towson is a solid mid-major team that will play hard for 40 minutes. A lot to lose; not a lot to gain for WF tonight.
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Oh, I think all of us have seen this movie many times before. Cleveland State, Delaware State and Iona come to mind.

Too early to panic but we absolutely cannot lose this game.
 
Towson was dirty as fuck when we beat them in the NIT with Alondes. At the end of the game they basically beat up a freshman Hildreth. Plus, their coach is a tweaker and acts like he as Aspergers. I hope we beat the shit out of them
 
Based on lineup size of Towson, Wake bigs should have much better games. Carr won't have two 7 footers in his face all might.

Cam won't have those 7 foot guys in his way to the basket.
 
Early for a must win. But this is one of those. Tomorrow as well. What a catastrophic time to finally schedule tough early games. In other news, Georgia up on Miami early. Dayton smacking St John’s around
 
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