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MBB Game XXVI: Georgia Tech @ LJVM - Saturday 5pm - ACCN

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Late Saturday afternoon our Deacs host the Rambling Wreck. Beating GT won't do much for WF's NCAAT credentials, but a loss would be devastating. Here is the rundown on Josh Pastner's struggling squad:

2022-23 GT 9-15 (#210): Hard to believe, but two years ago, the Jackets won the ACC title in a COVID-truncated ACCT with a 80-75 win over FSU. GT won its last 8 games of that season heading into the NCAAT. Since that ACC title, Josh Pastner's team is 7-28 against ACC teams. Bad. This season, the Jackets have two home conference wins: a impossible to explain 76-70 win over Miami, and last night, GT edged a horrible Notre Dame team on a tip in at the buzzer. The Rambling Wreck is 0-6 on the ACC road, and 1 -7 overall on the road (the one win was by two over #246 GA State). If not for L'ville's historically dreadful season, the talk would be how far GT has fallen.

Conference Analytics:

Offense (ugly for the Jackets, there are 15 ACC teams):

Efficiency: GT 92.1 (#15) - WF 111.9 (#2)
TO Rate: GT 18.6% (#13) - WF 13.7% (#3)
2 PT FG%: 45.5% (#14) - WF 52.6% (#6)
3 PT FG%: 30.5% (#14) - WF 37.7% (#2)
FT%: 66% (#15) - WF 74% (#8)
Effective FG%: 45.6% (#15) - WF 54% (#2)
FTA/FGA: 19.4% (#15) - 36.6% (#1)

Defense (not has horrendous, but still woeful):

Efficiency: GT 110.5 (#13) - WF 107.1 (#9)
TO Rate: GT 14.9% (#13) - WF 16.6% (#7)
2 PT FG%: GT 54.2% (#14) - WF 51.5% (#10)
3 PT FG%: GT 34.1% (#7) - WF 35.4% (#11)
Effective FG%: GT 53.1% (#11) - 52.1% (#10)
FTA/FGA: GT 30.7% (#11) - 28.7% (#9)

GT is among the youngest teams in the conference with an average 1.53 years of D1 experience. GT has a lot of similar 'meh' players; so, they do they use their bench extensively. GT is among the slowest teams in the conference averaging 66.7 possessions a game. WF is now #1 in the ACC tempo.

Roster:
In the rousing win over ND, GT started:

6-2 Lance Terry: Gardner-Webb transfer; missed 4 ACC games in late Jan early Feb; full strength now; 40 minutes 19 points (3 for 6 from three) in the win over ND; 33% from deep; tipped in the game winner to beat ND (see below)
6-3 Kyle Sturdivant: USC transfer; 7 ppg 2 rpg; 31% from three; 2nd in assists
6-6 Dallan Coleman: 96 O rating; 11 points and 4 boards against ND: 31% from three; 9 ppg
6-6 Miles Kelly: leading scorer; only GT player averaging double figures; 12 ppg; more turnovers than assists;
6-7 Ja'von Franklin: leading rebounder (6 rpg); 119 O rating (best on the team); 58% from 2; can't shoot the three;

Off the bench:

6-1 Devion Smith: Miss State transfer; plays starter's minutes (32 last night against ND); leads team in assits; 26% from 3; good rebounder for his size; 2nd on GT in rebounding
6-7 Jalon Moore: started 15 games; 5 points total in the last four games; 13% from three; 8 ppg; 5 rpg
6-11 Rodney Howard: started 16 games; doesn't shoot threes; 5 ppg 5 rpg; no points in the last two games



Projection: KP -- 80-67 WF in 69 possessions; Torvik -- 81-67 WF. GT is a historically bad offensive team. Their current offensive efficiency rating of 92.1 is the worst of any ACC team over the last 5 years (and that's saying something as there have been some pathetic offensive teams in recent years, but the Jackets are worse than all of them). GT's defense isn't much better. WF has a recent history of blowing out bad teams at home. That said, this is not a great spot for WF as the Deacs are coming off a big win over UNC, and have a massive game against Miami on deck (granted with a week off before the Miami game).

Bad teams beat good teams in flat spots often in college basketball (e.g., BC beat VT in Blacksburg last night after VT beat their arch rival UVA on Saturday). Even so, GT is just so horrendous offensively (they are averaging 60 ppg on the ACC road; they lost at L'ville); even if WF is sleep-walking, hard to see GT generating enough offense to beat WF at the LJVM; except for UVA, WF has scored 77 or more in every ACC home game. Even so, not interested in laying 13+ points in a flat spot for WF (and can't put money on GT), but lean under if the total is 147 or more as GT is incapable of a big offensive game, and think WF may not have its foot on the gas pedal for 40 minutes. Win this one, rest and get ready for a big one in Miami.
 
Wow their lineup is really small. Wouldn’t mind going small and putting our 5 best offensive players on the floor and just piling up points.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Let's get a comfy 80-58 type win
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let's go 90-60 and flash this up on the video board when it goes final

5861072.jpeg
 
Grobe telling Gattis: "always be closing". Something that Josh took to heart....
 
I'd like. a 30 point blowout before the week off personally.
 
WTF - I get its a bad gt team vs a mediocre (record) wake but 5 PM ACCNet lists Syracuse vs Virginia (from 1/27) at 5 pm. Better be a mistake.
 
Have heard Forbes commenting recently on the good teams separating themselves at this point in the season.

The gist of it being that if you consider yourself a good team, then these are games where you jump out to a big lead early and never look back.

I'd expect us to win this one bigly... By 20+.
 
Would love to get Appleby some rest in this game if possible. Statistically we're really bad when he's off the floor (Daivien just isn't a point guard and his back limits him even further), but if we can build a healthy lead I'd love to seem him play 35 in a blowout rather than 40 in a grinder. Then we have a full week to prep for the biggest game of the season at Miami.

I think we start with a small lineup but if they're not shooting the ball well I'd love to see us go 1-3-1 with Marsh on the baseline and just throw lob after lob to him at the rim on offense.
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Would love to get Appleby some rest in this game if possible. Statistically we're really bad when he's off the floor (Daivien just isn't a point guard and his back limits him even further), but if we can build a healthy lead I'd love to seem him play 35 in a blowout rather than 40 in a grinder. Then we have a full week to prep for the biggest game of the season at Miami.

I think we start with a small lineup but if they're not shooting the ball well I'd love to see us go 1-3-1 with Marsh on the baseline and just throw lob after lob to him at the rim on offense.
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He should be able to get some. With that said, we get a week off until our next game. We should win big in this one.
 
Appleby has played 25 games and is averaging 36.2 min/game. Jayson Tatum has played 51 games and is averaging 37.4 min/game. LeBron James is 38 years old and has played 44 games and is averaging more min/game than Appleby. I don't worry much about Appleby's minutes.
 
Rafi said:
Appleby has played 25 games and is averaging 36.2 min/game. Jayson Tatum has played 51 games and is averaging 37.4 min/game. LeBron James is 38 years old and has played 44 games and is averaging more min/game than Appleby. I don't worry much about Appleby's minutes.
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Those guys are also professional athletes with professional training staffs and professional rest and recovery routines, diets, and supplements. Totally noncomparable. High usage college players get worn out all the time.
 
37 minutes in a 4 quarter game is a lot different than 37 minutes in a 2 half game
 
Good points by NJ and BeachBum, but playing half the number of games and fewer minutes per game than 38 year old LeBron makes me not worry about 24 year old Tyree. Plus, Forbes said the same in his radio show - he's a 24 year old kid playing two games per week, so he's not worried.
 
I’d also hope our nutrition/strength program for at least the revenue sports is pretty comparable to a professional program. If not, we are doing it wrong.
 
Ty's 3-point shooting vs. the ACC + Wisconsin and Rutgers, in 5-game stretches*:

1st 5, Wisc/Clem/Rut/Duke/VT: 13-24, 54.2%
2nd 5, NC/UL/FSU/BC/Clem: 13-34, 38.2%
3rd 6, VA/Pitt/NCSU/Duke/ND/UNC: 8-40, 20.0%

*we have played 16 such games so I grouped 5/5/6. All 3 groupings have 3 road games

I think he is tiring and it is impacting his shot.
 
thatguy2016 said:
Ty's 3-point shooting vs. the ACC + Wisconsin and Rutgers, in 5-game stretches*:

1st 5, Wisc/Clem/Rut/Duke/VT: 13-24, 54.2%
2nd 5, NC/UL/FSU/BC/Clem: 13-34, 38.2%
3rd 6, VA/Pitt/NCSU/Duke/ND/UNC: 8-40, 20.0%

*we have played 16 such games so I grouped 5/5/6. All 3 groupings have 3 road games

I think he is tiring and it is impacting his shot.
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Maybe he has become the focal point for all defenses at this point?

First half of the game vs second might be interesting. Free throw percentage, since it is such a standardized shot, might be informative, too.
 
Others have also pointed out that he historically has not been as good a shooter as he showed early in the season. So probably some regression to the mean, some being the focal point of defenses, some forcing bad shots at the end of the clock, some fatigue.
 
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