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Midterm election predictions

Who will win Congress?

  • Dems retain House & Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Dems win House / Pubs win Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Pubs win House / Dems win Senate

    Votes: 22 40.0%

  • Pubs win House & Senate

    Votes: 29 52.7%
  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
Phew. Shapiro beat the insurrectionist.
 
dartsndeacs said:
So are we seeing a strategy here of tons of R leaning polls leaking prior to the election to give cover for the voter fraud narrative if/when they lose one?
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Maybe some of that, but also Republicans (all Americans, really, but more so Pubs) seem to be very invested in winning. So if it looks like their candidate will win, they are more likely to go out and vote so they can say they voted for the winner.
 
Was that huge gap between PA gov and senate expected? There's a lot of split ticket voting in GA and PA.

Not sure about NC. Look at WaPo, Wake County only has 55% of votes in so that could help swing for Beasley. Most counties are at 99%.
 
PhDeac said:
Was that huge gap between PA gov and senate expected? There's a lot of split ticket voting in GA and PA.
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Even as a Republican, I had Shapiro as a safe win. I still expect Oz to win. Pennsylvania is known to split ticket vote.
 
Since the US apparently thinks celebrity makes a person fit to govern, why are all the celebs shitty Pubs? Who was the last celeb Dem that ran for major office? Franken? It isn't like they need to be qualified... being famous is like a 20 point boost.
 
Dems seem to like politicians who become celebrities not the other way around.
 
redwing42 said:
Since the US apparently thinks celebrity makes a person fit to govern, why are all the celebs shitty Pubs? Who was the last celeb Dem that ran for major office? Franken? It isn't like they need to be qualified... being famous is like a 20 point boost.
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And at least he has a degree in political science from Harvard and was very politically active his entire career.

The only other notable dem examples I can think of are Clay Aiken and Heath Shuler, with the latter actually winning elections.
 
The only thing wrong with people's analysis of voters decisions for Republican candidates on this thread is that you assume those Republican voters are rational.

The only things that matter to them are their money and basically keeping things the same. It's a party of tropes. God, originalism, country music songs, patriotism.

They aren't concerned with nuanced policy discussions.
 
dems are outperforming in the house didn't expec that.
 
JD Vance wins Ohio. Currently by 8 points. Absolutely stunning. Tim Ryan ran as good of a campaign as possible, stuck to the center, and was just common sense. And Ohio chose an elite who hates elites Trump backed candidate who was a never Trumper.

Goodbye Ohio.
 
Man the Senate is going to come down to a Georgia runoff again isn’t it. Pickup PA, lose NV, here comes the nonstop ads.
 
MSNBC shitting all over Dems for focusing on lost causes like OH and FL and not NC. Maybe if they had sent Obama here and spent a little money Beasley coulda won.
 
BarcaDeac said:
MSNBC shitting all over Dems for focusing on lost causes like OH and FL and not NC. Maybe if they had sent Obama here and spent a little money Beasley coulda won.
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That narrative isn't true. Per CNN

In the third quarter of 2022, Ryan raised a sizable $17.2 million, compared to Vance’s $6.9 million. In the second quarter, the gap was even more dramatic: Ryan raised $9.1 million to Vance’s roughly $1 million.

Still, because of Democratic skepticism about their chances in Ohio, Ryan had to largely go it alone in the state, pouring all the money he raised into a slate of television ads. Vance, by contrast, received considerable outside help – including from the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, which announced in August it planned to spend at least $28 million in the state.
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But didn't Tim Ryan get a lot of press for complaining Dems weren't spending enough on him? He lost big to JD Vance. At least focusing on FL made some sense based on past elections, but FL has been a lost cause that money won't help.
 
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