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NIT hurdle.

pourdeac

pourdeac

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In a conversation with ChrisL68 on TOB, I looked at the NIT entrants from last season and the metrics.

If you look at the KenPom list, the first team out of either tourny last year was Pitt at 63. The next team was Ga St at 71. Then Illinois at 73. Both power conference teams missed because of conference records. Pitt went 5-13 that year in conference....22-17 overall. Illinois finish 6-12 in conference, 17-15 overall. Only 3 teams inside the Ken Pom 75 didn't make either tourny. I think going by that, if we're in the top 75 teams in Ken Pom next year we'll either be in or a near miss because of expansion and fewer than 7 conference wins.

The Big10 teams that made the NIT...Minnesota (49 KP, 6-12, 23-15), Iowa (86 KP, 8-10, 18-17), Northwestern (70 KP, 8-10, 19-14). The BigEast teams that made the NIT...Seton Hall (57 KP, 8-10, 21-13). SEC teams that made the NIT Miss St (89 KP, 8-8, 21-12), Miss (87 KP, 8-8, 20-14, LSU (97 KP, 7-9, 18-15). 7 power conference wins (18 game sched) and a KenPom of >97 (only 20 points better than our current ranking) appears to get you into the NIT. 6 wins got Minnesota into the NIT but they had a strong. I think only 5 wins killed Pitt. LSU is the "worst" team in with 7 wins and a KP of 97. I didn't look up their RPI.

We could've had 7 wins this year and had we not had the 4 bad OOC losses, our RPI would be well in the NIT range...this year. Winning those games....we would have ended say 7-11, 18-12 and just missing the NIT? The only wild card next year is expansion.

If we're next year's 2011 Pitt or Illinois because of expansion I'm not going to get upset but the hurdle to get into the NIT may not be as hard as people think from where we sit....KenPom of 116 is only 20 points lower than LSU who got in with 7 wins last year. If we go on a run at the end of this season and somehow improve our RPI (which is very doubtful but...) who knows. It's not impossible....very very unlikely.

I'm assuming the NIT hasn't changed the rules.
 
We could strive to be #69.....what a great goal to have!!!!
 
This year? There is no chance. The selection committee is going to look at RPI more anyway and ours will certainly be >100
 
How in the hell did we not only lose, but get our asses handed to us by fn Nebraska at home? Throw in the Ga Tech, Seton Hall and BC games, we would be sitting at 15-11 (7-7) if we didn't blow those last 3 when we lead late. Man I can't believe I'm saying what if for the NIT.
 
delusion.jpg
 
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Never seen a fan of a 4-9 team talk so much smack on another team's message board about how much better his team is.

SchoolConf.Pct.OverallPct.
Miami13-1.92922-4.846
Duke10-3.76923-3.885
North Carolina9-5.64319-8.704
Virginia8-5.61518-8.692
NC State8-6.57119-8.704
Maryland7-7.50019-8.704
Florida State6-7.46214-12.538
Clemson5-9.35713-13.500
Wake Forest5-9.35712-14.462
Georgia Tech4-9.30814-11.560
Boston College4-9.30812-14.462
Virginia Tech2-11.15411-15.423
 
ChrisL68 said:
Never seen a fan of a 4-9 team talk so much smack on another team's message board about how much better his team is.

SchoolConf.Pct.OverallPct.
Miami13-1.92922-4.846
Duke10-3.76923-3.885
North Carolina9-5.64319-8.704
Virginia8-5.61518-8.692
NC State8-6.57119-8.704
Maryland7-7.50019-8.704
Florida State6-7.46214-12.538
Clemson5-9.35713-13.500
Wake Forest5-9.35712-14.462
Georgia Tech4-9.30814-11.560
Boston College4-9.30812-14.462
Virginia Tech2-11.15411-15.423
Click to expand...

Oh, I'm incredibly fed up with GT hoops and our ridiculous coaching hire. But WFU fans looking down on anyone in the ACC or acting like any game was a "should win" is hilarious, and I love tweaking you all over it.
 
Looks to me like you are looking up at us in the standings.

Both teams stink and we did gift you that game last week or we would be well ahead of you.
 
TUA01576 said:
How in the hell did we not only lose, but get our asses handed to us by fn Nebraska at home? Throw in the Ga Tech, Seton Hall and BC games, we would be sitting at 15-11 (7-7) if we didn't blow those last 3 when we lead late. Man I can't believe I'm saying what if for the NIT.
Click to expand...

Culture change.
 
vadimivich said:
I love how everyone on this board constantly acts like you should have won a pair of games over a team that's 40 spots better than you in KP with no problem. It's hilariously cute.
Click to expand...

All 3 of those games the Deacs lead for most of the 2nd half. The Seton Hall game they lead nearly 30 minutes of it and by double digits. They were all games that they, by all accounts, should have won.
 
Letting those GT games get away is all everyone on the board is talking about!
 
vadimivich said:
I love how everyone on this board constantly acts like you should have won a pair of games over a team that's 40 spots better than you in KP with no problem. It's hilariously cute.
Click to expand...

And by no means am I speaking of the game at GT where we were killed. I am talking about 3 games we had won late only to piss down our legs.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Never seen a fan of a 4-9 team talk so much smack on another team's message board about how much better his team is.

SchoolConf.Pct.OverallPct.
Miami13-1.92922-4.846
Duke10-3.76923-3.885
North Carolina9-5.64319-8.704
Virginia8-5.61518-8.692
NC State8-6.57119-8.704
Maryland7-7.50019-8.704
Florida State6-7.46214-12.538
Clemson5-9.35713-13.500
Wake Forest5-9.35712-14.462
Georgia Tech4-9.30814-11.560
Boston College4-9.30812-14.462
Virginia Tech2-11.15411-15.423
Click to expand...

haha yeah. vad is really a shit poster
 
I'd say replacing CJ is a pretty big wild card too. I think our other guys will step up but they're going to have to.

pourdeac said:
In a conversation with ChrisL68 on TOB, I looked at the NIT entrants from last season and the metrics.

If you look at the KenPom list, the first team out of either tourny last year was Pitt at 63. The next team was Ga St at 71. Then Illinois at 73. Both power conference teams missed because of conference records. Pitt went 5-13 that year in conference....22-17 overall. Illinois finish 6-12 in conference, 17-15 overall. Only 3 teams inside the Ken Pom 75 didn't make either tourny. I think going by that, if we're in the top 75 teams in Ken Pom next year we'll either be in or a near miss because of expansion and fewer than 7 conference wins.

The Big10 teams that made the NIT...Minnesota (49 KP, 6-12, 23-15), Iowa (86 KP, 8-10, 18-17), Northwestern (70 KP, 8-10, 19-14). The BigEast teams that made the NIT...Seton Hall (57 KP, 8-10, 21-13). SEC teams that made the NIT Miss St (89 KP, 8-8, 21-12), Miss (87 KP, 8-8, 20-14, LSU (97 KP, 7-9, 18-15). 7 power conference wins (18 game sched) and a KenPom of >97 (only 20 points better than our current ranking) appears to get you into the NIT. 6 wins got Minnesota into the NIT but they had a strong. I think only 5 wins killed Pitt. LSU is the "worst" team in with 7 wins and a KP of 97. I didn't look up their RPI.

We could've had 7 wins this year and had we not had the 4 bad OOC losses, our RPI would be well in the NIT range...this year. Winning those games....we would have ended say 7-11, 18-12 and just missing the NIT? The only wild card next year is expansion.

If we're next year's 2011 Pitt or Illinois because of expansion I'm not going to get upset but the hurdle to get into the NIT may not be as hard as people think from where we sit....KenPom of 116 is only 20 points lower than LSU who got in with 7 wins last year. If we go on a run at the end of this season and somehow improve our RPI (which is very doubtful but...) who knows. It's not impossible....very very unlikely.

I'm assuming the NIT hasn't changed the rules.
Click to expand...
 
We've had a lot of tough losses in my time as a Wake fan, but the Tech loss last weekend ranks right up there.
 
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