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Non-Political Coronavirus Thread

Our daycare is open for everyone now (previously only essential workers) and we have to pay to keep our spots regardless of whether we send them. Which we are not. So we get the double whammy of lighter wallet and crazy little kids breaking things while we work.
 
06deacon said:
Our daycare is open for everyone now (previously only essential workers) and we have to pay to keep our spots regardless of whether we send them. Which we are not. So we get the double whammy of lighter wallet and crazy little kids breaking things while we work.
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That's the price of the incline.

(That sucks)
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I don't have kids. I was responding to HTTD.
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Okay, confusing for sure.

Deacsfan27 said:
Forsyth is very much headed the wrong way. It sucks you basically have to make a decision by June 1st for the rest of the summer.

I've been pretty obviously conservative in how I've viewed all this, so I wouldn't feel comfortable sending my kids to daycare yet.

I know the risk of them getting it is very low, but if they do all this then they basically can't see grandparents/older folks for a long time.
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probably bad of me that I'm hoping that the 'rona can get our kid off the waiting list at the daycare we want him to be at.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Ambiguous reference for sure on my part.

"If I had kids I would not send them to daycare yet unless if I had to".
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Fair enough, noted.

Per the CDC stats I linked on the last page, out of the thousands of alleged US Covid deaths, only twelve were kids under 14 years old. So the risk of them dying from it is unbelievably low. Understood about the risk of transmitting it to grandparents, but my point is that the one thing probably everyone can agree on is that they shouldn't be seeing grandparents at this time anyway.
 
I am fully aware of the stats for children.

Once again, the biggest concern is the transmission of the disease, and children at day cares are one of the best transmitters of disease in America.

Joe Schmoe works at a packaging plants, contracts COVID, sends his son to the daycare with HTTD's son, who brings it home and transmits it to HTTD/awar, who travel to the grocery store and transmit it to 5/10/15 people, including the elderly person ringing up groceries who then dies because of it.

Right now we have no capability to test this or track it at anywhere near a level that we need to be able to if this type of thing happened.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I am fully aware of the stats for children.

Once again, the biggest concern is the transmission of the disease, and children at day cares are one of the best transmitters of disease in America.

Joe Schmoe works at a packaging plants, contracts COVID, sends his son to the daycare with HTTD's son, who brings it home and transmits it to HTTD/awar, who travel to the grocery store and transmit it to 5/10/15 people, including the elderly person ringing up groceries who then dies because of it.

Right now we have no capability to test this or track it at anywhere near a level that we need to be able to if this type of thing happened.
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Correct, but we also have no reliable, trustworthy vaccine for it, and in my opinion won't have one for several years. And in this scenario, because of their respective ages Schmoe, Schmoe Jr., HTTD/awar, and HTTD/awar II are likely all extremely low risk for serious effect. While we have collectively repeatedly stepped on our own dick over the past few months, the one thing we are reasonably confident of are the age stratifications and other high risk factors.

So in the absence of a vaccine, isolate the grandparents and morbidly obese and let it ride with everyone else, then you can unisolate the grandparents and fatties faster. It's like when I was a kid and had the chicken pox, neighbors bringing their kids over to get it. You can get to the 60-70% herd immunity pretty fast that way.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
The models still have another 50k-80k deaths in the next three months or so. People just have a short attention span and get bored
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When do the models have us hitting herd immunity at the current rate of "return to normal?" People start packing football stadiums this fall and I might not have to wait for a vaccine.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Correct, but we also have no reliable, trustworthy vaccine for it, and in my opinion won't have one for several years. And in this scenario, because of their respective ages Schmoe, Schmoe Jr., HTTD/awar, and HTTD/awar II are likely all extremely low risk for serious effect. While we have collectively repeatedly stepped on our own dick over the past few months, the one thing we are reasonably confident of are the age stratifications and other high risk factors.

So in the absence of a vaccine, isolate the grandparents and morbidly obese and let it ride with everyone else, then you can unisolate the grandparents and fatties faster. It's like when I was a kid and had the chicken pox, neighbors bringing their kids over to get it. You can get to the 60-70% herd immunity pretty fast that way.
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Once again, it’s more than just dying that matters. High numbers of cases consumes hospital resources. Is there a reason you’re so defiantly obtuse? This has been explained repeatedly.
 
KennyRogersRoast said:
When do the models have us hitting herd immunity at the current rate of "return to normal?" People start packing football stadiums this fall and I might not have to wait for a vaccine.
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Depends on what herd immunity is. The range that was initially proposed was 50% to 90%. Let's call it 70% to get there.

There are approximately 330M people in the USA. That requires 231M to get it before we reach that. If the fatality rate is 0.5% then that would be approximately 1.1M people dying to get there.

Assuming there are 10x the amount of cases in the USA as confirmed cases (I actually have no idea what that number is, nor does anybody else since we don't have good testing), there are approximately 15M people who have COVID so far (and 94K who have died, so right now we are atcually at a 0.6% mortality rate.

Long story short, unless if way more people than 15M have it, we are roughly at 6-10% of the number needed to reach 70% of the population.

Not even close.

If you believe that this is the same as the seasonal flu from a mortality standpoint, then 230M cases equates to 230K dead. Once again, we are nearing 100K, and will be there within the next week in all likelihood, so the 0.1% mortality rate is pretty unlikely in my opinion.
 
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2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Correct, but we also have no reliable, trustworthy vaccine for it, and in my opinion won't have one for several years. And in this scenario, because of their respective ages Schmoe, Schmoe Jr., HTTD/awar, and HTTD/awar II are likely all extremely low risk for serious effect. While we have collectively repeatedly stepped on our own dick over the past few months, the one thing we are reasonably confident of are the age stratifications and other high risk factors.

So in the absence of a vaccine, isolate the grandparents and morbidly obese and let it ride with everyone else, then you can unisolate the grandparents and fatties faster. It's like when I was a kid and had the chicken pox, neighbors bringing their kids over to get it. You can get to the 60-70% herd immunity pretty fast that way.
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It's not just people dying.

It's extreme overuse of hospitals and resources at one time that cause other severe shortages to treat routine surgeries/things that currently are "simple" to us.

The fact that we have no idea who has it and no plan to figure that out in the future is going to vastly inhibit our ability to get back to normal.

If Trump really wanted to get us back as soon as possible then he would be all in on testing and contact tracing. I would assume most people, myself included, are not going to go back to anywhere near normal until they know that they are not at risk to get COVID simply by going out of their house a lot.
 
KennyRogersRoast said:
I could see cases really taking off if we are talking about football with fans, church, concerts, school, etc. You would think if we started having exponential growth those things would stop, but who knows. At the same time you will still have a certain percentage of people who will continue to be vigilante in distancing.
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lol this is 100% what we are trying to avoid though.

This is what will absolutely cause hospitals to be overrun. It will kill way more people than we need to, and needlessly endangers the lives of our frontline workers.

We already had exponential growth before the lockdown, which was supposed to give us time to test, contact trace, develop a plan

The exponential growth factor is why we started the lockdown to begin with.

We failed, and we are just back to where we were when we started.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
It's not just people dying.

It's extreme overuse of hospitals and resources at one time that cause other severe shortages to treat routine surgeries/things that currently are "simple" to us.

The fact that we have no idea who has it and no plan to figure that out in the future is going to vastly inhibit our ability to get back to normal.

If Trump really wanted to get us back as soon as possible then he would be all in on testing and contact tracing. I would assume most people, myself included, are not going to go back to anywhere near normal until they know that they are not at risk to get COVID simply by going out of their house a lot.
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Have you gotten tested? Lots of opportunities in Charleston right now.
 
DeaconBrews said:
Have you gotten tested? Lots of opportunities in Charleston right now.
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Nope - I haven't left my apartment complex in like a month aside from driving to pickup groceries/people putting them in my car.

Going up to NC this weekend to move some of my GF's stuff out/bring back down here. She's got a graduation ceremony thing in Burke County (dumbest thing ever right now) that she's attending as a teacher. We will both get tested when she gets back before we move up to Pawleys in the first part of June.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
lol this is 100% what we are trying to avoid though.

This is what will absolutely cause hospitals to be overrun. It will kill way more people than we need to, and needlessly endangers the lives of our frontline workers.

We already had exponential growth before the lockdown, which was supposed to give us time to test, contact trace, develop a plan

The exponential growth factor is why we started the lockdown to begin with.

We failed, and we are just back to where we were when we started.
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I am not disagreeing with any of that. There was not much benefit to the past two months if we end up in the same place. I am just thinking about potential scenarios.
 
KennyRogersRoast said:
I am not disagreeing with any of that. There was not much benefit to the past two months if we end up in the same place. I am just thinking about potential scenarios.
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It's been 100% clear what needs to be done to get out of where we are - we just aren't doing it.

You're damn right there wasn't much benefit the past two months.

There are three paths we can take:

1. Just say "fuck it" and live our lives again, accepting that a lot of people will needlessly die.
2. Hedge between lockdown and full living, but don't expand testing/tracing enough to know who really has it.
3. Do what countries like South Korea have done and get testing/tracing available for everybody (not just "we have testing", but actually enough).

Almost everybody thinks No. 1 is unacceptable...hell I'm sure 2and2 is even against this.

We have made it clear that we aren't going to do No. 3.

So No. 2 is what we are going to do, which will not sustain businesses like restaurants, entertainment, or basically anything that is not essential for human beings. It will also lead to a lot of deaths as a second spike comes and we get back to where we are.

It's a very clear path forward - No. 3...but for "some unknown reason" we just aren't doing it.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Nope - I haven't left my apartment complex in like a month aside from driving to pickup groceries/people putting them in my car.

Going up to NC this weekend to move some of my GF's stuff out/bring back down here. She's got a graduation ceremony thing in Burke County (dumbest thing ever right now) that she's attending as a teacher. We will both get tested when she gets back before we move up to Pawleys in the first part of June.
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I would recommend getting tested one of the next two weekends at the Convention Center since it's free and drive-thru.

https://www.scdhec.gov/infectious-d...019-covid-19/covid-19-screening-testing-sites

I've already been tested via a questionable antibodies test but will get the brain swab once it is free in the grand strand (right after the tourists have come and given COVID-19 to us, along with no tips)
 
Deacsfan27 said:
It's been 100% clear what needs to be done to get out of where we are - we just aren't doing it.

You're damn right there wasn't much benefit the past two months.

There are three paths we can take:

1. Just say "fuck it" and live our lives again, accepting that a lot of people will needlessly die.
2. Hedge between lockdown and full living, but don't expand testing/tracing enough to know who really has it.
3. Do what countries like South Korea have done and get testing/tracing available for everybody (not just "we have testing", but actually enough).

Almost everybody thinks No. 1 is unacceptable...hell I'm sure 2and2 is even against this.

We have made it clear that we aren't going to do No. 3.

So No. 2 is what we are going to do, which will not sustain businesses like restaurants, entertainment, or basically anything that is not essential for human beings. It will also lead to a lot of deaths as a second spike comes and we get back to where we are.

It's a very clear path forward - No. 3...but for "some unknown reason" we just aren't doing it.
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I agree that #3 does not look like it is going happen. In fact there seems to be a rise in support for #1. Or something as close to #1 as #2.
 
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