Nothing about the UK Elections?

[Biff Tannen]

My hot take:

The US will probably have to go back and conquer Europe again and drive the Moors out of Spain someday. We should probably colonize it at that point.

 

[ONW]

My hot take:

The US will probably have to go back and conquer Europe again and drive the Moors out of Spain someday. We should probably colonize it at that point.

F that. We take Scandinavia, their hot gals, and steer clear of the mainland. Let them sort it out.

 

[deacvision7]

People in Europe are pissed because immigrants are working too hard and singing too loudly in church. It has nothing to do with the spike in violent crime or the disproportionate use of public resources.

[h=2]The share of asylum seekers in the local population is related to a 1.1% rise in property crime but no change in violent crime. A rise in A8 migrants as a share of the population is associated with a 0.4% fall in property crime and has no relationship to violent crime[/h]

The research showed that it is possible to derive causal estimates for both migrant groups and found that the share of asylum seekers in the local population was related to a rise in property crime, while a rise in A8 migrants was associated with a fall in property crime. Neither group was associated with statistically significant changes in violent crime. Estimates suggest that a one percentage point increase in the asylum seeker share of the local population is associated with a 1.1% rise in property crime. Since asylum seekers accounted for only around 0.1% of the population, the macro effects were small. A one percentage point increase in the share of the population that was born in the A8 countries leads to 0.4% fall in property crime.

International evidence from studies using similar methodologies to Bell et al. (2013) include Bianchi at al. (2012) using Italian provincial data and Spenkuch (2011) across US counties. The Italian evidence finds zero overall impact of migrants on either violent or property crime.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox....ion-and-crime-evidence-uk-and-other-countries

The evidence suggests it is less simple than Mr Farage might imply. Researchers at the London School of Economics and University College London have studied the effect on crime of two large migration flows to Britain. One was the arrival of large numbers of economic migrants from eastern European after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Rates of violent crime in the parts of England and Wales where they settled remained stable and property crime fell. Franco Fasani, one of the researchers, argues that such immigrants are eager to work, have social networks of some kind and might well have studied English. Economic migrants are likely to arrange jobs before they arrive. Few are unemployed. Studies in America have shown similar trends: the crime rate among first-generation immigrants is lower than the overall crime rate, even for those in their teens and early 20s, the most common age for criminal activity.

The second group were asylum seekers who fled to Britain in large numbers in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Again, their presence had no impact on the prevalence of violent crime. Property crime did, however, rise slightly.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/12/economist-explains-10




You don't know what the hell you are talking about, UNCG Deac.

 

[ONW]

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox....ion-and-crime-evidence-uk-and-other-countries






http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/12/economist-explains-10




You don't know what the hell you are talking about, UNCG Deac.

That has to sting.

 

[sailordeac]

Legal immigration is one thing but there is a problem with people crossing into the European Union without permission. In Italy they are coming by boat and in Hungary they are simply walking across the southern border from the Balkans. The countries of the European Union are gradually losing control over their frontiers. That could prove to be quite dangerous. Furthermore, there is no end in sight. How many more refugees can Europe absorb? And what should be the criteria for granting asylum.? The European Union does not appear to know what to do.

 

[vadimivich]

People in Europe are pissed because immigrants are working too hard and singing too loudly in church. It has nothing to do with the spike in violent crime or the disproportionate use of public resources.

Except they don't use public resources - they are young, and thus they contribute. The olds are the ones who are giant drains on public resources, and those are almost entirely native born. Did you even glance at the study I linked?

And the violent crime spike is laughable (and non-existent).

 

[UNCG Deac]

You don't know what the hell you are talking about, UNCG Deac.

You are just manipulating statistics and cherry-picking sources. Even your chart is misleading because it compares overall crime to the rise of one small group, while never actually breaking down crime by immigration status... you know, basic statistics.

A good starting point to learn about the crime associated with immigration is the Rotherham child abuse scandal. 1,400 children were sexually abused by gangs of Pakistani Muslim men, and the authorities refused to do anything for over a decade because they wanted to prevent a backlash of political correctness.

Widespread organised child sexual abuse took place in Rotherham, South Yorkshire, England, between 1997 and 2013. Local investigations into the abuse began in the 1990s, although some reports were never finalised or made public by the authorities.[1] In 2010, five men of Pakistani heritage were found guilty of a series of sexual offences against girls as young as twelve.[2] A subsequent investigation by The Times reported that the child sex exploitation was much more widespread, and the Home Affairs Select Committee criticised the South Yorkshire Police force and Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council for their handling of the abuse.

Members of the British-Pakistani community condemned the sexual abuses and the cover-up by authorities out of fear of "giving oxygen" to racism.[7] Denis MacShane, MP for Rotherham between 1994 and his resignation in 2012, said in a BBC radio interview that that no-one had come to him with child abuse allegations during that period, but commented he should have "burrowed into" the issue. He admitted that although he had argued with a local MP and members of the local council who had objected to the press investigation into the child abuse, as a "Guardian reader, and liberal leftie" he had avoided confronting the Muslim community, explaining: "I think there was a culture of not wanting to rock the multicultural community boat if I may put it like that."[10]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotherham_child_sexual_exploitation_scandal
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogersc...ing-rotherham-children-political-correctness/

You are also arguing that Muslims immigrants in the UK are net contributors to the general fund. How can that be when they have the poorest health, the most disability, the fewest educational qualifications, the highest unemployment, etc.? It is because the statistics you are using paint a rosy picture by including legal EU-origin immigrants. 60% of those hold a BA or higher, favorably skewing the averages for everyone else.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2004/oct/12/religion.news

Another big problem with your post is that many immigrant communities take the law into their own hands, and the crimes that members commit are usually not reported. According to police chief Tom Winsor:

There are some communities born under other skies who will not involve the police at all. I am reluctant to name the communities in question, but there are communities from other cultures who would prefer to police themselves. There are cities in the Midlands where the police never go because they are never called. They never hear of any trouble because the community deals with that on its own. It’s not that the police are afraid to go into these areas or don’t want to go into those areas. But if the police don’t get calls for help then, of course, they won’t know what’s going on.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/18/communities-law-police-chief-winsor


I am personally pro-legal immigration. My big fear is that politicians burying their heads in the sand is going to create a backlash that is going to be ugly. The seeds of fascism still exist in Europe, and the problems surrounding this issue could eventually come to a head and cause the election of an extremist far-right or far-left government. Politicians on both sides of the pond (and aisle) need to come together and enforce the law.

 

[Biff Tannen]

You cry for statistics and then throw out anecdotes.

 

[deacvision7]

You are just manipulating statistics and cherry-picking sources.

And you cherry-picked anecdotes. Which is far, far worse and borderline dishonest.


But since you would like more sources, please allow to oblige you:

We then review the empirical literature on crime and migration. We argue that the more convincing studies show little consistent relationship between crime and migration, with most studies finding small and insignificant effects. However,where the stock can be disaggregated into separate immigrant groups, the evidence is generally consistent with the standard economic model of crime–groups with poor labour market opportunities are more associated with property crime. Models of individual crime participation tend to show that migrants are less likely to commit crime than observably similar natives.

We focus on two groups of immigrants in this section. First, the large inflow of migrants from the A8 accession countries. Second, the stock of migrants that arrived as work permit or Tier 2 migrants post-2008. This second group is obviously of most interest to the MAC given their remit with regard to Tier 2 migrants. In both cases, we find no evidence of any link between migration and violent crime but both flows appear to be significantly negatively related to property crime rates. In other words, rising shares of A8 or work permit and Tier 2 migrants in an area are associated with reduced property crime rates. We interpret these results as consistent with the economic model of crime since both flows had strong labour market attachment.

In the tradition of social disorganization theory, Stowell (2007) explores the pattern of violent crime and immigration across the neighbourhoods of three US cities using 2000 census data. He allows for a direct effect of immigrant stocks on violent crime rates and an indirect effect working through the impact of immigrants on measures of social disruption in the neighbourhood. As with much previous research on violent crime and immigration in the U.S. (e.g. Lee, Martinez and Rosenfeld (2001)), he finds a negative direct effect of immigrant stocks on violent crime.

Bell, Fasani and Machin (2010) (hereafter BFM) estimate versions of (3) for England and Wales over the period 2001-2008. They examine the impact on violent and property crime of two large immigrant flows that occurred over the period. The first was associated with a large increase in asylum seekers as a result of dislocations in many countries during the late 1990s and early 2000s (e.g. Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Former Yugoslavia). The second flow resulted from the expansion of the European Union in 2004 to include Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania–the so-called A8. The UK decided to grant citizens from these countries immediate and unrestricted access to the UK labour market. BFM argue that tighter identification of the impact of immigration on crime can be achieved by focusing on specific and large immigrant flows. Fixed-effect estimates of (3) show that neither asylum seekers nor A8 immigrants had much effect on violent crime.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/257233/lse-consulting.pdf
Feel free to read the rest of the report to see if I was just "cherry-picking" and quote the parts that you think back up your argument.


More? Ok!

http://www.coll.mpg.de/economix/2009/Bianchi.pdf
(sorry, I couldn't copy/paste from this pdf easily, but please do read this report for yourself.)

However it is mentioned in the next cited source here:

For example, Bianchi, Buonanno and Pinotti (2012) study crime and immigration across Italian areas, finding no significant empirical connection. Bell, Fasani and Machin (2013) conclude the same studying two large immigration waves in the UK.

When we are able to implement a credible research design with statistical power, we find no evidence of an average causal impact of immigration on crime, nor do we when we consider A8 and Non-A8 immigration separately.

The last column of Table A1 in the Appendix shows that the crime rate for all the country decreased from 103 per 1,000 population in 2002 to 65 per 1,000 population in 2011. London also experienced the same trend, but in higher levels: the crime count decreased from 134 per 1,000 population to 87 per 1,000 population in the same period. The downward trend was common to both property and violent crimes.

http://personal.lse.ac.uk/machin/pdf/lj%20sm%20iza%2019%20OCT%202013.pdf

Again, feel free to read that study in full to see if I am cherry-picking or not.
Or, additionally, feel free to show actual studies that link immigration to crime across an entire nation and/or region and not just one-off incidences where it is true in one community or one neighborhood.

Or, conversely, I guess you can come up with individual articles that pertain to just one situation at one moment in time in order to make your point. It's a terrible way to win the argument, in my opinion, but have at it if you wish.

I guess some like to look at the whole picture to determine the truth and others like to determine the "truth" and then look for tidbits that confirm their preconceived personal biases.

The world keeps on spinnin'.