Obamacare...discussion

[Deacon923]

This is going to be a disaster, but that was the plan all along. In 20 years we'll be begging for a single payer system. Its a great slow con.

I don't think it's going to take 20 years. I think businesses are going to start dumping their employees on the exchanges and paying the penalty pretty quickly, and by the end of the decade the exchanges are going to be de facto single payer. Would be interested to hear what CHDeac is hearing in his industry about what big employers are going to do.

 

[CHDeac]

Employer dumping is the million $ question. And its really really hard to predict. For one, there are a lot of employers who believe in offering insurance. And the penalty can be steep (after taxes and grossed up for participation its over $4000 per employee). So employers will need to make employees whole, or partially whole, with the penalty. So the economics to dump aren't there.

That being said, medical trend is a killer. And there are no silver bullets in the ACA. None. In fact, costs are going up a lot. So some employers will have no choice but to dump and perhaps raise pay a little.

The disaster isn't everyone goes to the exchange. The exchange has a lot to like. Private carriers competing. Simplified buying (in theory). Subsidies. BUT, and this is the big but, the cost of the subsidy > penalty. And the CBO didn't forecast dumping. So if the subdues cost too much, they will go down and the consumer gets stuck.

Theres 0 chance we get single payer int he next 20 years. Hell, Obama only had 35 votes for a public option when he had a super majority. So, this thing could implode.

The other big what if is what if a few JUMBO employers dump. The flood gates will be open.

My gut says there is a lot of reticence to dump. We will see a movement towards defined contribution. But, the IRS/DOL just ruled employers can't go DC and send their employees to the exchanges. Oooops.

And when insurers make the ACA fees transparent, watch out.

Last, the feds have totally screwed implementation.

 

[DeaconCav06]

I don't know about identity fraud, but it is awesome when the IRS computers know your bank account information so those same computers can swoop right in and empty your account after they've erroneously alleged a tax deficiency and, even though 7 different IRS employees tell you the file is closed, nobody in their entire agency has the knowledge or ability to turn off the computer's automatic collection process. This should work out fantastic.

VA department of finance did this to me. Got them to reverse it but B of A refused to refund the $100 "Legal Papers" fee.

 

[BillBrasky]

Political suicide, which is why it wasn't done. Not only is it absolutely, indisputably government run health-care, but it's also a substantial tax increase. It also would put a lot of private sector insurance employees out of work.

See this is the part I'm actually cool with, those leeches do nothing for us.

That being said the rest of ELC's post is correct. Canadians flocking to America for health care doesn't help the argument.

 

[SkinsNDeacs]

I am still shocked that this shit bill/law was force fed to the country all in the name of getting something done. The "implement and fix it later" approach is wildly optimistic and ignorant of how government run programs work.