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Offical Sports Betting Thread

Lots of steam on it, but still like Charleston -2.
Also, Holy Cross +17
Manhattan +10
Iona -1

Can't figure out what is going on with the Alcorn/GW total. KP has the total at 166. Both teams play max tempo on offense, and Alcorn plays no D. Yet, the total has dropped 7.5 points. That is massive. Really curious because I was looking over, but now there are either massive injuries or the fix is on.

Also, really windy conditions and Schrader is out at QB tonight. Total dropping like a rock.
 
Today will be an interesting test for us. Should we cover? Yes. I still think we’re undervalued. Will we? Idk. I know games like this don’t mean a whole lot, but I’d really like to see if we gear up against a team we should smoke, even after a big win. There are 3 or 4 teams in the ACC this year we need to be able to wake up for and crush too. No days off.
 
Really good teams always have at least a couple of games of year when they absolutely crush a weak opponent. Realize that one of the criticism of some of the analytical systems is that it will give a boost to at team for beating a crap opponent by 40, but there is some validity that elite teams just decimate bad teams. Look at the scores of some of UVA's games in 2018 and 2019 when they went 66-6 and won a Natty:

93-49
78-47
80-48
73-42
97-40
83-45
72-40
100-64

That's in games with low 60s possessions. Domination.

The point is, starting think this WF team is really good. Not, Natty good, but best WF team in a long time good, that said, WF hasn't really showed that it can destroy a weak opponent. Think some of that evidence may come today.
 
Along the same lines, I posted about it last year but scoring margin is (obviously) a really good indicator of potential national title hopes. Of the last like 20 champs, everybody but one or two (I think it was UConn both times) had been top 10 in the nation in scoring margin.
 
Hit half a unit to start the day on Sacred Heart -3.5 (gotta get the juices flowing at 11:30 AM on a Thursday obviously). Riding the over on Alcorn/GW with @Deacsfan27 because we're absolute sickos.
 
I obviously do not believe Nevada is going to win the national title, but you can get them at 500-1 odds on MGM and they're 41st in KenPom. They have the same odds to win the title right now as Georgia Tech, Georgia, LSU, Stanford, Penn State, and Oklahoma State. Some of those teams aren't even in the top 100.

The "danger" I guess on Nevada (other than they aren't winning the title haha) is that they can lose a handful of MWC games and miss out on the tournament way more easily than bigger conference teams can. But they're going to have some Q1 chances.
 
Yeah, I took the Blue Hose +22. Not really a bad beat considering we were up 26 with 6 to play.

I obviously have no idea what a Tarleton State is, but UVA beat them by 30, which is essentially 60 by any other team metric. They’re 22.5 point dogs to Tennessee tonight, so sure…let’s do UT to cover. Although, it’s -115 and I’d rather tease it to even for 24 or 25, but that’s not an option.

They also lost to Bradley by 23.
 
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Ok, so apparently Tarleton State is actually the best team in the WAC. Just spent the last 20 minutes going down a Tarleton State rabbit hole. Apparently they’re some sort of Texas A&M spinoff? Recently jumped up to D1, but still has a ton of D2 games on their schedule. Oh the places gambling will take you…

ETA: I realize I'm probably the only person here or maybe anywhere who watched that game from start to finish, but UT wins by 19. Gambling is hard.
 
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Hit SC, ILL & San Fran in hoops tonight and GT in the bowl game. Make up a little I had in Cuse before QB went out.
Like Utah St a lot on Saturday.
 
Doofus and I ran it up today to a 5-0 record

Over tcu-Nevada 150.5
BYU -27.5
Colorado state -4.5
Marist +5.5
Illinois -6.5

The season long NCAAB finally creeping to 54% but above that vaunted 53-53.5% location
 

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Got to lean towards Air Force today vs JMU with all the crap & movement going on in Harrisonburg. Interim coach, lost their OC & DC and had to hire 5 temporary coaches just to fill in for this bowl game. On top of that they have 11 starters in the portal who “say” they will play but who knows.
Service academies usually do well in bowl games and AF has won & covered their last 4
 
I haven't bet on bowl games at all because with varying motivations, players opting out, etc. I don't know that I'm able to ascertain any value at all.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Doofus and I ran it up today to a 5-0 record

Over tcu-Nevada 150.5
BYU -27.5
Colorado state -4.5
Marist +5.5
Illinois -6.5

The season long NCAAB finally creeping to 54% but above that vaunted 53-53.5% location
Click to expand...

Is that the BettingPros app?
 
It is. The best functionality to me is that it aggregates the best lines for the books that I have an account linked with. It takes some time to sync and sometimes requires me to log back in on individual books but it's free so I can't really complain. It also sometimes randomly just puts bets in the "prop" category. So randomly the Colorado State bet was not in the college basketball group but these are minor gripes
 
Can NC State beat Detroit by 23 today at home? Seems possible
 
State burned me (no pun intended) a couple times earlier in the season. Not sure what they’ve looked like lately.
 
Fired today:

Providence -6 (thank you overtime)
Buttgers ML (loss)
Buttgers over 129.5 (15 points in final 1:21 to hit)
Over 154.5 WVU (hit)
Arizona -6.5
Santa Clara -3
Villanova -11

3-1 so far, let’s run the table
 
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