PhDeac
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Good quick Hollinger read about how the top prospects are bigs but the league needs big wings along with his top 20 and 3 sleepers. Jake is #20.
https://theathletic.com/3317217/2022/05/18/nba-draft-2022-top-20-prospects/
https://theathletic.com/3317217/2022/05/18/nba-draft-2022-top-20-prospects/
The top three players in this draft are bigs, with one being a true rim-protecting five. At least two other traditional centers are on every lottery board, and if you made a consensus mock draft right now, you’d see a generous sprinkling of players shorter than 6-5 as well. With centers in particular, we run into issues of diminishing returns. You can play one center, but never more; meanwhile, you can play as many 6-7 guys as you want in today’s NBA, provided at least one of them can dribble.
Despite that, teams continue to overvalue taking big centers at the top of the draft. We’ve had 18 centers drafted in the top six picks since 2002; only three of them have played in an All-Star Game, and in the case of Chris Kaman, we’re defining this term extremely broadly. Should Mobley and Deandre Ayton eventually make it, we’ll be at five. Woohoo.
Mobley proves the exception to the rule — a 7-foot center who plays as a perimeter player, particularly on defense. Meanwhile the best offensive center in the league (Nikola Jokić) was picked 46th, the best defensive center (Rudy Gobert) was picked 27th, and this year’s other 7-foot All-Stars (Jarrett Allen and Joel Embiid) were picked 22nd and thirdrespectively.
On the flip side, we’ve had a perimeter All-Star selected in the top five of every draft since 2010, if we assume one of Cunningham or Barnes breaks through soon. And we’re on a stretch of 20 straight drafts in the top six. A couple of them stretch the definition of “All-Star” a bit (Andrew Wiggins was voted in, and Devin Harris and D’Angelo Russell each made it once), but most were legit.
Overall, we’re talking about 27 All-Star perimeter players from 19 drafts, and 23 of them were no-doubt-about-it, All-Star-caliber players. Despite the zest for size at the top of the draft, most of these stars weren’t that big; only Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram were taller than 6-7.
20. Jake LaRavia | 6-9 junior | PF | Wake Forest
I originally had LaRavia in my “sleepers” section, but so many people have moved him up their draft boards lately that I feel like I’m not even ahead of the average on him anymore.
LaRavia is a relatively young junior, an unknown who transferred from Indiana State before the season and then blew up for the Demon Deacons. While his teammate Williams won ACC Player of the Year, I’m more encouraged by the pro prospects of LaRavia.
Defensively, in particular, he shows multi-positional potential. He has size and strength but also had the feet to comfortably stay with guards. His strong lower body and good balance help him pester dribblers without overcommitting or getting pushed off stride. He rarely fouls but has active hands that swiped 2.7 steals per 100 possessions and is able to challenge shots without flying into shooters. Few players I saw on tape were more adept at forcing dribblers to beat them with contested 2s. There may be some quickness limitations that show against NBA athletes, but in the ACC, they switched him against everybody and he aced the test.
LaRavia’s shooting will be another topic of discussion, as he hit 38.4 percent this season but on very low volume. Career marks of 37.1 percent from 3 and 74.3 percent from the line should ease some concerns here. LaRavia checks out in other respects, as he’s a good passer and hit 61.6 percent of his shots inside the arc. Nitpickers will also note he’s not a great rebounder.