• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Official ACC Basketball Thread: UVA beats Maryland in overtime!

2-2 would be solid. 3-1 or better would show they are legit and probably lock up a bid
 
Wonder if this was small sample size for UVA.....

Then again... RJ doesn't know about that either
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Agreed, expected win total in those four games (before tonight's game) is 1.99 games. So if they go 2-2 that's expected. This includes an 83% chance at home against GT, other three games are 49% at UNC, 23% at Miami, 44% at home against Duke.

That's a tough stretch for any team. Two top 10 teams and a road game against a top 50 team.
Click to expand...

If they go 0-3 when they play good teams, what will your excuse be?
 
If they go 1-2 in that stretch and take care of business in the games they are favored they will be in good shape. I think I read they are 6-0 against the top 100 thus far.
 
RJKarl said:
If they go 0-3 when they play good teams, what will your excuse be?
Click to expand...

I would say that they lost to three good teams, including two road losses. There's around an eight point swing this year between playing at home and playing on the road. They need to win one of those three games though to be in good shape.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
People keep complaining about it being boring to watch Virginia basketball and say that it's a "terrible brand" but I think this really misses what UVA is accomplishing. A lot of teams who play a slow pace do it by running a Princeton style offense where you get lulled to sleep and then get backdoored. In other words the team slows the game down on the offensive end. UVA certainly does that to some extent, but it's oversimplifying what they're doing. Their prowess is at running the packline defense exceptionally well. They press really high up on the perimeter on the ball handler and make it difficult to get down the lane as they collapse other guys off the ball handler. The defense when run well makes it hard for the team to penetrate off the dribble and clogs the inside making motion hard if not nearly impossible when trying to get it inside. Combined the defense will then force other offenses to run time off the clock passing it around the outside, force up bad jumpers which are low percentage shots, and really wreak havoc with a team's confidence as they start to fork up more and more shots due to frustration over not being able to get it inside.

This drives the tempo way down as teams are taking a lot of time off the shot clock. It's a great defense to run with a solidly efficient offense on the other end, particularly with a team like UVA which nobody would accuse of being overly athletic. Bennett is doing one hell of a job and it's a disservice that they're not viewed as a better team this year by a lot of people because they're really playing an interesting and solid brand of basketball.
Click to expand...

I have no problem watching that kind of ball.

One of my favorite games ever was when they played us @ the Joel during the 2000-2010. We out-grinded the grinders (that sounds dirty somehow). It was awesome.
 
Last edited:
TBR said:
I have no problem watching that kind of ball.

One of my favorite games ever was when they played us @ the Joel during the 2010-2011. We out-grinded the grinders (that sounds dirty somehow). It was awesome.
Click to expand...

They were playing their second game in less than 48 hours.
 
Most people reassess when new information disputes their original assessment.

RJ retrenches.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
People keep complaining about it being boring to watch Virginia basketball and say that it's a "terrible brand" but I think this really misses what UVA is accomplishing. A lot of teams who play a slow pace do it by running a Princeton style offense where you get lulled to sleep and then get backdoored. In other words the team slows the game down on the offensive end. UVA certainly does that to some extent, but it's oversimplifying what they're doing. Their prowess is at running the packline defense exceptionally well. They press really high up on the perimeter on the ball handler and make it difficult to get down the lane as they collapse other guys off the ball handler. The defense when run well makes it hard for the team to penetrate off the dribble and clogs the inside making motion hard if not nearly impossible when trying to get it inside. Combined the defense will then force other offenses to run time off the clock passing it around the outside, force up bad jumpers which are low percentage shots, and really wreak havoc with a team's confidence as they start to fork up more and more shots due to frustration over not being able to get it inside.

This drives the tempo way down as teams are taking a lot of time off the shot clock. It's a great defense to run with a solidly efficient offense on the other end, particularly with a team like UVA which nobody would accuse of being overly athletic. Bennett is doing one hell of a job and it's a disservice that they're not viewed as a better team this year by a lot of people because they're really playing an interesting and solid brand of basketball.
Click to expand...

I agree with you. I love the way UVA plays defense. And a packline man is really the best type of D to run in today's college hoops, where you have a lot of early NBA entrants and not a lot of great shooting and fundamentals. The packline is designed to make it difficult to get points inside and make the other team's 4th or 5th option shoot the ball. That slows down the game. But I like to watch good defense, so I'm fine with it. They're also a little offensively challenged, so they often use up a lot of the shot clock, and you end up with halfcourt trench warfare ala Holland/Odom/Jeff Jones.

That might change a bit next year. They only lose Jontel Evans, who can't hit a pig's ass with a banjo, and have 2 PGs coming in and hopefully have Brogdon back, if his career isn't ended. And they have another solid big sitting out this year transferring in from South Carolina. If they get any decent PG play, they'll be more dangerous offensively and may look to push it more. And remember that this team has been decimated this year. Brogdon is redshirting, Evans missed 1-2 months, Atkins has missed most of the last month, and Tobey is probably done for the year.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Most people reassess when new information disputes their original assessment.

RJ retrenches.
Click to expand...

Wrong again. I didn't think Miami would be anything nearly as good as they are. Now I think they are the best team in the country. I didn't think FL was as good as they are.

Just because UVA hasn't proven anything by beating a succession of bad teams doesn't prove your point. In fact if you look at the spread of the experts, they bolster my point. RPI has UVA not being in The Dance. As of last week, Lunardi has them out. As of last week even Pomeroy has them out. BPI has them out or at best struggling to be on the bubble.

I think to be accurate you could say, "more and more experts are coming around to RJ's earlier position.
 
RJKarl said:
Wrong again. I didn't think Miami would be anything nearly as good as they are. Now I think they are the best team in the country. I didn't think FL was as good as they are.

Just because UVA hasn't proven anything by beating a succession of bad teams doesn't prove your point. In fact if you look at the spread of the experts, they bolster my point. RPI has UVA not being in The Dance. As of last week, Lunardi has them out. As of last week even Pomeroy has them out. BPI has them out or at best struggling to be on the bubble.

I think to be accurate you could say, "more and more experts are coming around to RJ's earlier position.
Click to expand...

This is just...awful. Writing off UVA's success because they've played "a succession of bad teams" is laughable. Besides beating UNC earlier this year, they've also beaten NCSt and Maryland (@Maryland) on their latest winning streak.

RPI is a pathetic tool for evaluating teams. Lunardi's bracket is a reflection of the RPI, and he has them in now anyway, so not sure what your point is.

BPI has them 42nd, which would clearly be in the tournament field.

KenPom does not project the tournament field, so I really have no idea what you are talking about re: the bold, but UVA has been at-large quality, according to the KenPom rankings, since around Thanksgiving.

Reading your last line again makes me think you are just trolling at this point.
 
Anyway, today's schedule:

7:00 espn3 #135 Wake Forest @ #117 Boston College (-6)
7:00 espn2 #8 Miami @ #112 Florida St (+10)
9:00 ESPN #46 North Carolina @ #6 Duke (-15)
 
stonz said:
This is just...awful. Writing off UVA's success because they've played "a succession of bad teams" is laughable. Besides beating UNC earlier this year, they've also beaten NCSt and Maryland (@Maryland) on their latest winning streak.

RPI is a pathetic tool for evaluating teams. Lunardi's bracket is a reflection of the RPI, and he has them in now anyway, so not sure what your point is.

BPI has them 42nd, which would clearly be in the tournament field.

KenPom does not project the tournament field, so I really have no idea what you are talking about re: the bold, but UVA has been at-large quality, according to the KenPom rankings, since around Thanksgiving.

Reading your last line again makes me think you are just trolling at this point.
Click to expand...

42 is not necessarily in due to automatic bids.

Someone posted KenPom's stating that UVA was among his last four out.

RE:RPI, you think it's pathetic. I guess that's all that's important.

I give you multiple sources. You try to use one. Hmmm....
 
RJKarl said:
42 is not necessarily in due to automatic bids. I'm not going to take the time to fill out the S-Curve, but 42 gets in. I promise.

Someone posted KenPom's stating that UVA was among his last four out. No

RE:RPI, you think it's pathetic. I guess that's all that's important. Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics thinks its pathetic. Fun research project for you: Vegas knows the most, right? Compare the Vegas line to the KenPom line to what the RPI line would be, and report your findings. Shouldn't take you long to recognize the difference.

I give you multiple sources. You try to use one. Hmmm....
Click to expand...

Answers in bold. Remember, you originally said that UVA was not a top 100 team, that would be lucky to approach 9 conference wins. So I'd hesitate to say that the experts are "coming around" to your position.
 
42 definitely gets in. As an 11 seed in fact. 50/51 is the cutoff line for the last at-large team in a normal year. Under the most extenuating circumstances possible, that number could be as low as 47/48.

The RPI was a basic construct that was originally calculated with pen and paper. I could point you to 50 better systems. But someone from the NCAA back office invented it 30 years ago, so the NCAA won't get rid of it until the tide of public opinion forces them to.

For what it's worth, BPI more closely aligns with who gets in and who doesn't than Kenpom, but it's also largely based on the Kenpom system as a starting point, so both are pretty solidly aligned with Vegas.
 
Miami going to hang on versus Florida St.

Time for Duke / UNC.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top