RJ, if scoring first will lead to a victory 67% of the time, why not lead off with players that can score with one swing of the bat?
Or someone with a 19% BB rate and a .422 OBP.
RJ, if scoring first will lead to a victory 67% of the time, why not lead off with players that can score with one swing of the bat?
Some interesting extensions this spring. Obviously, Altuve gets the mega deal for being elite but DeJong, Suarez, and now Kingery provide new watermarks. My Braves would be smart to ink Albies to the DeJong deal before he puts up a 4+ WAR season. DeJong and the Reds intent to play Senzel at 2B/SS show that teams are valuing infield defense less due to shifts, strikeouts, and players hitting the ball in the air more.
Because he will produce more runs batting behind someone who gets on base at .333-.400+ rate.
Even at .333 OBP and Judge playing 150 games, he will bat for the first time with a runner on base 50 times. He hits a HR about every 13 PAs. This will give the Yankees a 2-0 lead at least two more times per season (this is low and assuming that two of those are hit at home and while behind -this is very unlikely but is very conservative).
That number doesn't include the other times he drives that guy in or the added runs created by having another power hitter behind the leadoff guy and Judge.
As I showed earlier, the difference between batting first and second is only 19 PAs.
Further, with all the stats we have today, it has to be inferred that starting pitchers are much more effective from the wind-up rather than from a stretch. If it was even relatively equal, a number of starters would be pitching exclusively from the stretch. I can't think of any of the 150+ rotation who do this. Thus, batting with a man on base 50+ more times than he would leading off would give him better pitches to hit in those PAs than he would have leading off.
I'm not saying put a Punch and Judy hitter second. This is only about Judge.
So simple, direct and basic numbers don't work?
Why? Batting second he will appear at least 50 times with a man on base that he wouldn't have batting first. He hit a HR every 13 PA. That would be 4 HR's with a man on. He knocked in a run every 6 PA. This could create another 8 RBI.
This is simple and direct. To not accept them is to pick and choose what to accept and not accept.
I think that Stephen Strasburg of the Nats pitches from the stretch all the time.
You're assuming that the "replacement" player wouldn't knock any of those guys in, and are focusing solely on Judge and his RBIs (presumably his runs scored would increase) without thinking about how it would affect the team as a whole. Essentially, you said "this is only about Judge" when it's not. You could still be correct looking at it that from the whole team aspect as well, I don't have the data to argue it either way (I'm assuming someone does), but it's an interesting thought experiment.