Initial analysis would indicate that Clinton couldn't turn out the base. Turnout was down across the board, but up in rural white America. One candidate excited the ideological reaches of their base, and the other offended them. She ran in the middle, he grabbed the right. It was a winning strategy. KellyAnne Conway better actually get paid, because she finally got him to follow directions enough to not lose too much of the middle. The GOP has done an outstanding job of spinning their outsider status to gain control of everything despite low approval ratings. It will be interesting to see if they keep that up over the next 4 years. I would guess that yes they will continue to paint us commielibs as the establishment.
It's very easy to confuse victory with vindication (I know a local Republican Party who made that mistake...). The Dem coalition didn't have room for poor white people, so it kicked them out. It took finding a candidate who noticed that was unclaimed territory to bring them back in.
She was a dreadful candidate who just kept springing leaks. It was truly the death of 1,000 cuts, and try as they might her surrogates couldn't patch the holes fast enough. As bad as she was, the absence of her message was worse and proved to be her undoing.
Trump won not because he had the right answers, but because he had the right questions. You're not going to get turnout with the thrust of your message being "It's my turn, the other guy is raciost, and if you don't vote for me, you probably are too." I know that many will deny that was the message, but just watch the Facebook hand-wringing gold. Person A's sense of entitlement or Person B's raciosm is not a solution for Person's C problems (and thus, small incentive for Person C to go vote). We can call Person C a name if it makes us feel better, but promising to bring more Syrian refugees isn't going to lower Person C's health care premiums or grow the economy a fourth percentage point.
For all of his many faults, Trump counted the people who no longer counted to either major party. He spoke to the so-called deplorables and the lesson of 2016 is that the 2020 winner will also.
Do I think Trump will magically fix this? No, of course not. But if you want him to win again, keep blaming other people's alleged hatred for this loss, rather than a lack of credible solutions.