Not to mention that Fox paid a bunch of money for this product. They need people to watch. Trashing your own product would not serve that goal, so if it’s plausible to say something nice and keep up interest, they will do it.
lolIs it just me, or are the announcers and studio folks going out of their way to be pro Qatar? And they're talking about the great atmosphere when it's not loud, and there's a number of empty seats.
That's likely the case even if we lose to England Six nil unless Wales beats uk which is very highly unlikelyWhat? If we draw England all we have to do is beat Iran to get through. That game is not meaningless at all
Sure.That's likely the case even if we lose to England Six nil unless Wales beats uk which is very highly unlikely
I saw that Telemundo has not held back in discussing the issues with Qatar.Not to mention that Fox paid a bunch of money for this product. They need people to watch. Trashing your own product would not serve that goal, so if it’s plausible to say something nice and keep up interest, they will do it.
That's assuming that England already has the group and doesn't put in the effort against Wales.England is only -190 vs Wales. -210 vs us.
I wonder if that factors in the likelihood of England needing to push for a win to advance vs. having it wrapped up before the game startsEngland is only -190 vs Wales. -210 vs us.
I saw that Telemundo has not held back in discussing the issues with Qatar.
If so, could come down to a difference in audience loyalty. Fox is trying to convince a lot of folks who only tune in once every four years to stick around.
For sure. Iran is the only game that matters now.Gotta rest players on yellow today, right?
Yeah I dont love it but I also think we have to approach the Iran match 100%. CCV and Scally you could argue is a better fit against England too. Aaronson or Reyna for McKennie.resting the guys on yellow is probably the right move, but it's kinda lame
a win over england -- however improbable -- sets you up to only need a tie instead of a win vs. Iran and in good shape to win the group and likely avoid Netherlands
who are you starting today assuming none of the yellows play? CCV, Aaronson, and I'd like to see Scally get a shot over Yedlin
doing rough math:
we have a 55% chance of beating iran. wales has a 15% chance of beating england. based on the implied odds of todays game, we probably have at least a 2/3 chance of winning the differential tiebreak. so would basically say we have a ~5% of not advancing with a win over iran that would go away with a draw today. not getting blown out has about the same impact. but at the end of the day, roughly 50%.
we also have a ~15% of beating england, which opens up some other weird things, but we are estimated at about 78% to at least draw vs iran. if we lose, we’d probably need wales to beat england (15%, so about 3% total probability).
so if i’m doing the math right, beating england makes up about 1/4 of all the different paths we could take to qualify (because there is about a 50% we either don’t beat iran or lose via tiebreaker to wales). which based on vegas moneylines, is about 65%.
eta: i now realize this is a horribly written post, but it was fun for me damnit.