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Ongoing Dem Debacle Thread: Commander will kill us all

 
Ongoing Dem Debacle Thread: debacle 69% of the time, every time

Can you elaborate on your point?

(For Townie)
 
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Ongoing Dem Debacle Thread: debacle 69% of the time, every time

This was interesting.

“Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who announced he is exploring a run for the presidency on the Libertarian ticket, is unknown to 80% of Americans, and is viewed more unfavorably (13%) than favorably (8%).”

The only Republican to stand up against Trump only has about 20% name recognition. That’s how well they’ve silenced dissent within the party.

The battleground part of the poll was an oversample of 302 people in the 15 states that were decided by 8 points or less in 2016. That’s not much to go on. I’d like to see more state polls.
 
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PhDeac said:
Can you elaborate on your point?

(For Townie)
Click to expand...

The reference in the tweet is that Bernie was the twitter candidate. If you only believe twitter, socialism will win. But the common refrain from media is that Twitter isn’t real life. And nobody really thinks it is. But the rj chorus of scolds is a perfect overlap.
 
Gotcha. Like it or not, this race is going to take place on social media so every candidate needs to take clues from candidates who have a strong following on social media.
 
CNN should be ashamed for hyping up these results.

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf
A total of 1,112adults, including an oversample of 302 adults living in 15 battleground states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Oversampled states have been weighted to represent their proper share of the adult population.Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Among the entire sample, 34% described themselves as Democrats, 26% described themselves as Republicans, and 40% described themselves as independents or members of another party.
Click to expand...

Here are the most recent April and May polls from those 15 states:

Arizona (4/8) - Biden 52-43, N=600, +/- 4% https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/bidenextendslead/
Colorado (5/3) - Biden 55-36, N=600, +/- 4% https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com...topline-results-all-questions-for-release.pdf
Florida (5/12) - Biden 53-47, N=928, +/-3.1% https://business.fau.edu/department...i-polls-2020/biden-leads-trump-in-florida.php
Georgia (5/13) - Trump 48-46, N=700, +/- 3.7% https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6890619/RSLC-Georgia-Memo-May-2020.pdf
--Note this is a Republican State Leadership Committee poll. A less recent poll had Biden up 47-46.
Maine (none since March)
Michigan (4/19) Biden 50-42, N=1270 https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Lake-Effect-Poll-April.pdf
Minnesota (none since March)
Nevada (4/30) Biden 49-45, N=763, +/- 3.6% https://thenevadaindependent.com/ar...pite-shutdown-biden-has-small-lead-over-trump
New Hampshire (4/27) Biden 50-42, N=820, +/- 3.4% https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/April 2020 Survey.pdf
New Mexico (4/21) Biden 52-40, N=1009, +/- 3.1% https://majorityinstitute.com/latest/lujan-grisham-bests-trump-51-points-coronavirus-response
North Carolina (5/9) Trump 46-43, N=1111, +/- 3.4% https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportab...igh-approval-for-state-s-coronavirus-response
Ohio (5/10) Trump 51-49, N=725, +/- 3.5% http://emersonpolling.com/2020/05/1...s-widespread-expectation-of-being-re-elected/
Pennsylvania (4/26) Biden 49-43, N=644, +/- 3.9% http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/d...20-04-harper-polling-pa-statewide-results.pdf
Virginia (4/8) Biden 51-41, N=663, +/- 4.5% https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AqGAm2-OgF5nP6--TsNavnVAgas55jTJ/view
Wisconsin (5/7) Biden 46-43, N=811 https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/MLSP60Toplines.pdf
 
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myDeaconmyhand said:
yes, it's fucking gross to call a rape accuser a liar when you don't know that she's lying. Full stop.
Click to expand...

Just catching up on this trainwreck. Haven't you and others been calling Biden a rapist? Isn't it fucking gross to call someone a rapist when you don't know if he raped anyone? Full stop? Isn't it worse than calling someone a liar?
 
PhDeac said:
CNN should be ashamed for hyping up these results.

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf


Here are the most recent April and May polls from those 15 states:

Arizona (4/8) - Biden 52-43, N=600, +/- 4% https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/bidenextendslead/
Colorado (5/3) - Biden 55-36, N=600, +/- 4% https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com...topline-results-all-questions-for-release.pdf
Florida (5/12) - Biden 53-47, N=928, +/-3.1% https://business.fau.edu/department...i-polls-2020/biden-leads-trump-in-florida.php
Georgia (5/13) - Trump 48-46, N=700, +/- 3.7% https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6890619/RSLC-Georgia-Memo-May-2020.pdf
--Note this is a Republican State Leadership Committee poll. A less recent poll had Biden up 47-46.
Maine (none since March)
Michigan (4/19) Biden 50-42, N=1270 https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Lake-Effect-Poll-April.pdf
Minnesota (none since March)
Nevada (4/30) Biden 49-45, N=763, +/- 3.6% https://thenevadaindependent.com/ar...pite-shutdown-biden-has-small-lead-over-trump
New Hampshire (4/27) Biden 50-42, N=820, +/- 3.4% https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/April 2020 Survey.pdf
New Mexico (4/21) Biden 52-40, N=1009, +/- 3.1% https://majorityinstitute.com/latest/lujan-grisham-bests-trump-51-points-coronavirus-response
North Carolina (5/9) Trump 46-43, N=1111, +/- 3.4% https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportab...igh-approval-for-state-s-coronavirus-response
Ohio (5/10) Trump 51-49, N=725, +/- 3.5% http://emersonpolling.com/2020/05/1...s-widespread-expectation-of-being-re-elected/
Pennsylvania (4/26) Biden 49-43, N=644, +/- 3.9% http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/d...20-04-harper-polling-pa-statewide-results.pdf
Virginia (4/8) Biden 51-41, N=663, +/- 4.5% https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AqGAm2-OgF5nP6--TsNavnVAgas55jTJ/view
Wisconsin (5/7) Biden 46-43, N=811 https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/MLSP60Toplines.pdf
Click to expand...

Yes, looking at a cross section 300 person poll across 10 plus states isn't going to be nearly as instructive as multiple state level polls.

But this election is going to be close. I am sure that the favored candidate(s) of the progressive complainers here would be doing much better all evidence to the contrary aside.
 
Shooshmoo said:
Just catching up on this trainwreck. Haven't you and others been calling Biden a rapist? Isn't it fucking gross to call someone a rapist when you don't know if he raped anyone? Full stop? Isn't it worse than calling someone a liar?
Click to expand...

Definitively calling someone a rapist undeservedly isn’t cool AND all allegations should be received seriously and not dismissed.

But, I think it is worse to call a rape victim a liar than to call someone a rapist (neither are good). The former compounds a lot of trauma.
 
Calling someone a rapist implies that they should be in prison. Our legal system considers it a very serious felony. And obviously a complete moral failing.
 
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Shooshmoo said:
Just catching up on this trainwreck. Haven't you and others been calling Biden a rapist? Isn't it fucking gross to call someone a rapist when you don't know if he raped anyone? Full stop? Isn't it worse than calling someone a liar?
Click to expand...
Since you're just catching up - no. I haven't called him a rapist.
 
To try and get us away from this disaster of a conversation, let's turn back to the unity task force. I think that the "climate change" and "economic" task forces are particularly strong.

I was expecting Biden to be pretty good on climate stuff, so the fact that AOC and Kerry are co-chairs strikes me as a no-brainer and a good move. Same goes for Varshini Prakash (Sunrise) and Catherine Flowers (Center for Rural Enterprise and Environmental Justice), bringing in two really talented EJ activists in the game right now (on Sanders's recommendation). McEachin and McCarthy have been good political advocates on environmental policy for a long time and have legislative and executive experience, respectively. Perhaps Ph can fill me in on Castor. I know that progressive climate activists don't love her, but her record seems decent. Duggan is a head scratcher, but is a token centrist on the committee and who currently works for the villain Tom Ridge.

Some names that stand out to me on the economic task force are Sara Nelson (International President of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, AFL-CIO) and Darrick Hamilton (an economist at tOSU). Nelson is a badass labor activist and Hamilton is one of the consistent advocates for racial and economic justice in the field of Economics; both picks fill me with some hope for the Biden administration's economic policy. Jared Bernstein is a good name, too, and has some experience as a critical economic policy voice in the Obama Administration. Likewise, I'm into Kelton as a heterodox economist, but won't pretend like I really understand MMT all that well. Karen Bass is my Senator and generally a good progressive in congress. I don't know much about Lee Saunders, but two labor people on this task force representing public and private sector unions seems like it adds a nice balance. Two names I don't really like here are Sonal Shah and Ben Harris, but 75% cool is fine by me.

I don't think I'm qualified to evaluate Health Care (but I like that there is a nice M4A contingent), Education (meh? Ph, Brasky, mako - any thoughts?), and Immigration (big fan of Valdes and Franco and Roybal-Allard is good, but idk the others), but I'd like to hear folks' thoughts.

I have to say that I'm pretty disappointed in Biden's picks for the Criminal Justice task force, especially given Biden's platform. I understand that Holder has experience, but not all experience is good experience and he's been a thorn in the side of judicial reformers on CJ issues for awhile now. I'm open to alternative substantive interpretations though.

What do y'all think?
 
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Don't know much about the Education group. Two teachers union heads makes sense. I think I've read Alejandro Alder's work at some point. Name seems familiar. Sara Goldrick-Rab would be a great fit for that slot. Her work within the realm of student well-being seems more relevant than Alder's. She was Bernie's education advisor, but may have pissed off the Bernie people with tweets like this:

 
PhDeac said:
Don't know much about the Education group. Two teachers union heads makes sense. I think I've read Alejandro Alder's work at some point. Name seems familiar. Sara Goldrick-Rab would be a great fit for that slot. Her work within the realm of student well-being seems more relevant than Alder's. She was Bernie's education advisor, but may have pissed off the Bernie people with tweets like this:

Click to expand...

I've never met her but I admire her work. I had no idea she was with the Sanders campaign. That's awesome. Between Warren (or her people) outing herself/themselves as regular Contexts-readers and this news, Sociology appears to be gaining some influence in the public sphere!

What's your take on Castor? She's a Tampa Dem, right?
 
Last time I saw Sara was at the meetings in Philly. She only went because she’s at Temple now. She doesn’t really do conferences anymore. Her plate is pretty full with speaking engagements and TV appearances and the like. Maybe that will change post-COVID.

Castor is pretty generic Dem. She’s been my rep pretty much my whole time here and I don’t remember a legitimate challenger from the left or right. It’s a solid Dem district that doesn’t include most of the rural part of the country. Still she doesn’t ruffle many feathers. As far as I can tell she’s not as involved with the local progressive groups as much as city and county politicians. I’ll put it like this. I’ve met almost every local Dem at the city and county level just in the last few years but I’ve never met Castor. Yet the progressive activist crowd seems fine with her. I’ve never heard calls to primary her even though there is a solid bench of local officials emerging.


I’ll throw out the name Fentrice Driskell. She’s my FL House Rep and she’s fantastic. She’s someone who would ordinarily challenge for a Congressional seat at some point if not for Castor.
 
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