Points left on Board

[dagreekdeac]

I have fiddled and made a spreadsheet that illustrates our red zone woes, IMO. The first set of leftmost columns are illustrating Red Zone Attempts per Game and the Right set of Columns are TDs per game. I ignored field goals for simplicity sake. The points left on the board column is assuming that you should get a TD each red zone trip so attempts X 7 minus Actual TDs x 7.

Obvious stats that misconstrue this number will be TDs from big plays i.e. Special Teams, Defense, and TDs from 40+Yards.

On this info, we rank rather high for points left on Board at about 10 a game.

 

[PhDeac]

The columns are poorly labeled. I assume the first set is red zone visits and the second is red zone TDs.

Also your "Points left on the board" measure ignores FGs.

Your formula should be:

Points left on the board = (Red zone attempts*7) - (TDs*7) - (FGs*3)


Red zone stats are among the most misleading, so this is an improvement. Red zone percentage equates TDs and FGs. I'd rather see what you're suggesting or a simple Points Per Red Zone attempt.

 

[dagreekdeac]

The columns are poorly labeled. I assume the first set is red zone visits and the second is red zone TDs.

Also your "Points left on the board" measure ignores FGs.

Your formula should be:

Points left on the board = (Red zone attempts*7) - (TDs*7) - (FGs*3)


Red zone stats are among the most misleading, so this is an improvement. Red zone percentage equates TDs and FGs. I'd rather see what you're suggesting or a simple Points Per Red Zone attempt.

OP notes that I am ignoring FGs and that the first set of columns are red zone visits and the second set are TDs. I guess I could have labeled them better, but I did on the side while I'm work so I was lazy.

 

[PhDeac]

You shouldn't ignore FGs. Where did you get your stats? I could do what I suggest rather simply with the right stats.

 

[dagreekdeac]

You shouldn't ignore FGs. Where did you get your stats? I could do what I suggest rather simply with the right stats.

Every team name in the spreadsheet is a hyperlink. Have at it! Would like to see.

 

[Neurodeac]

We are #2 in the ACC in Red zone scoring percentage per the ACC site:


Red Zone Touchdowns Field Goals Lost possession
RED ZONE OFFENSE G Scores-Chances Pct. TDs Rush-Pass Made-Att Fumb Int. Downs Other
1. Miami 4 11-12 91.7 8 5-3 3-3 0 0 1 0
2. Wake Forest 4 20-22 90.9 11 8-3 9-10 0 0 1 0
3. Virginia 5 18-20 90.0 12 10-2 6-7 0 0 0 1
4. Georgia Tech 5 24-27 88.9 21 20-1 3-4 1 0 1 0
5. Florida State 4 13-15 86.7 8 3-5 5-5 0 2 0 0
6. NC State 5 12-14 85.7 10 3-7 2-2 1 0 1 0
7. North Carolina 5 15-18 83.3 15 9-6 0-0 1 0 1 1
8. Boston College 5 10-13 76.9 6 4-2 4-6 1 0 0 0
9. Maryland 4 15-20 75.0 10 5-5 5-6 1 1 2 0
10. Clemson 5 14-19 73.7 12 6-6 2-3 1 0 1 2
11. Virginia Tech 5 19-26 73.1 14 11-3 5-8 0 1 3 0
12. Duke 5 14-20 70.0 12 11-1 2-5 0 1 1 1

 

[PhDeac]

Every team name in the spreadsheet is a hyperlink. Have at it! Would like to see.

Wake is tied for 23rd in Red Zone percentage. This is misleading because Wake has almost as many FGs in the red zone as TDs. In fact, Wake has the 4th highest FG% in the country at 41% and is 98th in Red Zone TD percentage at 50%.

We average 4.7 pts per Red Zone attempt, 74th in the country. We're leaving 2.3 points on the board per drive. At 22 drives total or 5.5 Red Zone drives a game, that's 12.5 points left on the board per game from the red zone.

Now obviously you can't get a TD every time, but by comparison, Stanford has 134 points in 22 drives this season, 30 more than Wake or just over a TD more a game in the same number of Red Zone attempts.

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

Wake is tied for 23rd in Red Zone percentage. This is misleading because Wake has almost as many FGs in the red zone as TDs. In fact, Wake has the 4th highest FG% in the country at 41% and is 98th in Red Zone TD percentage at 50%.

No spreadsheets needed: 98% in Red Zone TD%, against 4 mediocre/bad teams says it all.

 

[dagreekdeac]

Wake is tied for 23rd in Red Zone percentage. This is misleading because Wake has almost as many FGs in the red zone as TDs. In fact, Wake has the 4th highest FG% in the country at 41% and is 98th in Red Zone TD percentage at 50%.

We average 4.7 pts per Red Zone attempt, 74th in the country. We're leaving 2.3 points on the board per drive. At 22 drives total or 5.5 Red Zone drives a game, that's 12.5 points left on the board per game from the red zone.

Now obviously you can't get a TD every time, but by comparison, Stanford has 134 points in 22 drives this season, 30 more than Wake or just over a TD more a game in the same number of Red Zone attempts.

Yup... this is the information I was trying to get at... We would be so much better if we could finish these.

Here are the reasons I see for this:

1) Special teams. We are often getting in the red zone AFTER driving 40-50 yards. Look at the BC drive chart... If we were starting on the 35 or better I think this improves.

2) Weak running game. Limited room to run routes in the red zone forces an already poor running game to try and run where the run is more anticipated.

 

[dagreekdeac]

No spreadsheets needed: 98% in Red Zone TD%, against 4 mediocre/bad teams says it all.

I wish we were 98% in Red Zone TD%

 

[qcdeac]

Why haven't they come up with a Points Per Red Zone Visit stat yet? Hate during NFL games when they show red zone stats and league ranking, but you don't really know if 12 TDs and 4 FG's in 20 red zone visits is good.

Note: NBC SNF and ESPN MNF are great at pulling out bizarre stats, but Fox and CBS really seem to be lacking in that area.

 

[dagreekdeac]

Why haven't they come up with a Points Per Red Zone Visit stat yet? Hate during NFL games when they show red zone stats and league ranking, but you don't really know if 12 TDs and 4 FG's in 20 red zone visits is good.

Note: NBC SNF and ESPN MNF are great at pulling out bizarre stats, but Fox and CBS really seem to be lacking in that area.

Yeah... it's odd that this isn't shown more. I think an FG in the red zone is a failure so I don't see why you'd want to see red zone scoring %. 10 FGs in 10 trips still shows 100% even though that totally sucks.

 

[PhDeac]

We could have a big discussion about misleading statistics in football. This one is one of the worst. Along with Points per Red Zone Visit, I'd also like to see:

1. Median yards per carry - This would simply tell you what you can expect from your back on a given carry instead of inflated stats due to a few long runs. Most likely staring RBs would break out into 3, 4, or 5 median yard backs.

2. Median yards per pass attempt - Same principle. This should show if a QB is a dink and dunk guy or if he likes to take shots.

3. Yards after contact - It's used but not nearly often enough. Same with yards after catch.

4. Drops - There's an element similar to scoring an error, but it would make for more accurate statistics.

5. Points in Opponent Territory - Similar to Points per Red Zone Visit but broken out to crossing the 50. Here a FG would be a better outcome.

6. 3 and out percentage - Time of possession can be misleading. Even a 3 and out can take minutes of the clock even if they weren't productive minutes. First downs can be a product of a few good drives.

 

[Neurodeac]

Wake is tied for 23rd in Red Zone percentage. This is misleading because Wake has almost as many FGs in the red zone as TDs. In fact, Wake has the 4th highest FG% in the country at 41% and is 98th in Red Zone TD percentage at 50%.

We average 4.7 pts per Red Zone attempt, 74th in the country. We're leaving 2.3 points on the board per drive. At 22 drives total or 5.5 Red Zone drives a game, that's 12.5 points left on the board per game from the red zone.

Now obviously you can't get a TD every time, but by comparison, Stanford has 134 points in 22 drives this season, 30 more than Wake or just over a TD more a game in the same number of Red Zone attempts.

Ha ha, now who's being misleading? Comparing Wake to Stanford who has the best college QB and some are saying the best pro prospect ever at QB in Luck. Could be we be better in the red zone? Sure. But all this talk is about red zone PERCENTAGE is malarky. Look how many red zone attempts we have. Frankly I'm stunned that we have the same number of red zone attempts as Stanford. You slammed Lobo a couple of years ago when the offense was putting up yardage but points were lagging and said points are the only standard. Well, we are in a virtual tie for 2nd in the ACC with Clemson and FSU for scoring offense at nearly 35 ppg.

 

[PhDeac]

Are you serious? That's exactly what we're talking about. We're getting yards and getting into the red zone at a good clip, but not getting points on the board in the red zone.

Obviously our stats came against Gardner Webb and 3 bad teams, so take them for what they're worth. Regardless we know the offense struggles mightily closer to the endzone which is why we're a big play offense which is what I said we needed to be before the season started.

 

[lokisapocalypse]

 

[Lectro]

We are #2 in the ACC in Red zone scoring percentage per the ACC site:


Red Zone Touchdowns Field Goals Lost possession
RED ZONE OFFENSE G Scores-Chances Pct. TDs Rush-Pass Made-Att Fumb Int. Downs Other
1. Miami 4 11-12 91.7 8 5-3 3-3 0 0 1 0
2. Wake Forest 4 20-22 90.9 11 8-3 9-10 0 0 1 0
3. Virginia 5 18-20 90.0 12 10-2 6-7 0 0 0 1
4. Georgia Tech 5 24-27 88.9 21 20-1 3-4 1 0 1 0
5. Florida State 4 13-15 86.7 8 3-5 5-5 0 2 0 0
6. NC State 5 12-14 85.7 10 3-7 2-2 1 0 1 0
7. North Carolina 5 15-18 83.3 15 9-6 0-0 1 0 1 1
8. Boston College 5 10-13 76.9 6 4-2 4-6 1 0 0 0
9. Maryland 4 15-20 75.0 10 5-5 5-6 1 1 2 0
10. Clemson 5 14-19 73.7 12 6-6 2-3 1 0 1 2
11. Virginia Tech 5 19-26 73.1 14 11-3 5-8 0 1 3 0
12. Duke 5 14-20 70.0 12 11-1 2-5 0 1 1 1

Don't interupt the inept.

 

[Lectro]

Are you serious? That's exactly what we're talking about. We're getting yards and getting into the red zone at a good clip, but not getting points on the board in the red zone.

Obviously our stats came against Gardner Webb and 3 bad teams, so take them for what they're worth. Regardless we know the offense struggles mightily closer to the endzone which is why we're a big play offense which is what I said we needed to be before the season started.

Insert long farrrrrrrrrrrrrrrtttt here and now.

 

[PhDeac]

Don't interupt the inept.

So you're arguing that it doesn't matter how many points you score as long as you put anything on the board.

You're not arguing against me. You're arguing against math and common sense.

Lectro, let me give you some free advice. You're a reasonable poster when you just post straight up without making a broad attempt to call out a poster or blindly sacrifice players or good logic to defend the coaching staff.

Think about that and come back to this thread. The goal of the game is to score more points than the opponent. If you still think it's completely irrelevant that our offense only gets a TD in half of our red zone trips because they manage to get FGs, then please make that point logically and coherently without throwing around insults.

 

[Lectro]

So you're arguing that it doesn't matter how many points you score as long as you put anything on the board.

You're not arguing against me. You're arguing against math and common sense.

Lectro, let me give you some free advice. You're a reasonable poster when you just post straight up without making a broad attempt to call out a poster or blindly sacrifice players or good logic to defend the coaching staff.

Think about that and come back to this thread. The goal of the game is to score more points than the opponent. If you still think it's completely irrelevant that our offense only gets a TD in half of our red zone trips because they manage to get FGs, then please make that point logically and coherently without throwing around insults.

I am not as concerned with red zone stats...but if you are then you will likely have to adjust to the emerging thought of the zone's starting at the 30.

I am more concerned with consistency... If you want to compile some stats then put together the stat lines from each game's initial possession. Guage the D the same if you like. I am more focused on our club becoming a more thorough and consistent team throughout the game.