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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

wsc8521s said:
We can hire candidates that have proven so much more than Odom has. Let him move up the ladder and prove himself further. No need to settle for cronyism
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From what I can tell from some of your posts you seem to be an Oats guy. I think Oats would be a great hire too. My only push back is that you've dismissed other suggestions with a similar refrain...prove more. Yet Oats is your guy. He has been a college head coach for all of 3 1/2 years, before that he was an assistant at a mid-major, and before that a high school coach. No experience at any level above mid-major at all. And he didn't turn a program around, just has continued the momentum started by Hurley. And I'm trying to find where the great win is in his 3 1/2 years. Arizona last year? I think that's it. Literally not a single other victory over a Top 25 team in his career.

With all that said, the eye test tells me Oats is a good choice. But the argument for him absolutely cannot be "he's proven" while others need to prove more...he too has a small sample size, with just one signature win...and therefore he too is a gamble.

I'm not saying I prefer Odom, but to dismiss him as a legit candidate out of hand is silly. And to say he has more to prove is not any more true than a number of folks mentioned throughout this spread...Oats included. He wasn't a high school coach 7 years ago. Instead, he was a D1 assistant in the ACC for 7 years, interim head coach @ Charlotte, and turned around two programs in a row. And rather than calling it "cronyism", I'd embrace it...as he has a coaching pedigree that we should be embracing rather than dismissing, imo.
 
Buffalo is a top 25 team according to almost all metrics, not to mention the polls themselves. That is an unbelievable accomplishment at a MAC school, not to mention how he waxed Arizona in the tourney last year, won @ WVU this year and won easily @ Syracuse. It's not like he's played that many top 25 teams to have oodles of opportunities to beat them. Yes, Hurley did a good job there, but Oats has unquestionably elevated the program. He's had four years, it's not like he's winning off of Hurley's recruits at this point. And you discount his HS experience, but he was a fantastic HS head coach too.

America East is a low major, it's too big of a leap to an ACC job. There are only a couple serious programs in the conference and yet Odom has yet to have the best team (per metrics or round-robin regular season record) in the conference. Odom needs to prove himself further. It's too big of a risk given the shitshow we've endured the last decade
 
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wsc8521s said:
Buffalo is a top 25 team according to almost all metrics, not to mention the polls themselves. That is an unbelievable accomplishment at a MAC school, not to mention how he waxed Arizona in the tourney last year, won @ WVU this year and won easily @ Syracuse. It's not like he's played that many top 25 teams to have oodles of opportunities to beat them. Yes, Hurley did a good job there, but Oats has unquestionably elevated the program. He's had four years, it's not like he's winning off of Hurley's recruits at this point. And you discount his HS experience, but he was a fantastic HS head coach too.

America East is a low major, it's too big of a leap to an ACC job. There are only a couple serious programs in the conference and yet Odom has yet to have the best team (per metrics or round-robin regular season record) in the conference. Odom needs to prove himself further. It's too big of a risk given the shitshow we've endured the last decade
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Look, one of my points is simple...if we have qualms about any of these mid-major coaches it should be all of them, Oats included. WVU is terrible and Syracuse is schizophrenic...I think they've lost at home to Old Dominion and GT. So it remains that they have one signature win in 3 1/2 years. I'm not dismissing his HS coaching at all...I coached high school basketball for over 10 years, so I respect that. However, he has 3 1/2 years of HC experience at the mid-major level and two years as an assistant before that and a bunch of high school years. No major coaching experience at all. And therefore the coronation talk and the talk that this is a "homerun hire" on the scale of Thad Matta or someone like that is premature. I feel like we've been down this road before. Shaka Smart was a can't miss too.

My other point then is if any of these guys are gambles, admittedly more than others, then scoffing at Odom is silly. Sure the America East is lower down the list than the MAC, but he still has a more impressive win than Oats does on his resume. And he has done more of a turnaround job than Oats has too. Do I lean towards Oats? Absolutely. Should I not be comparing the two? Maybe not. But, again, beyond Oats, Odom is as legitimate an option as some of the other ones I've heard folks pull out of their asses on here.

No matter what you think about Odom as a candidate, check this out as Wake Forest fan. Move forward to 19:40 or so when they start talking to John Feinstein...great talk about Duke and Wake and an awesome Arnold Palmer anecdote.

https://www.umbcretrievers.com/sports/mbkb/2018-19/videos/20181204-5gesmgyq
 
Deacs9394 said:
Look, one of my points is simple...if we have qualms about any of these mid-major coaches it should be all of them, Oats included. WVU is terrible and Syracuse is schizophrenic...I think they've lost at home to Old Dominion and GT. So it remains that they have one signature win in 3 1/2 years. I'm not dismissing his HS coaching at all...I coached high school basketball for over 10 years, so I respect that. However, he has 3 1/2 years of HC experience at the mid-major level and two years as an assistant before that and a bunch of high school years. No major coaching experience at all. And therefore the coronation talk and the talk that this is a "homerun hire" on the scale of Thad Matta or someone like that is premature. I feel like we've been down this road before. Shaka Smart was a can't miss too.

My other point then is if any of these guys are gambles, admittedly more than others, then scoffing at Odom is silly. Sure the America East is lower down the list than the MAC, but he still has a more impressive win than Oats does on his resume. And he has done more of a turnaround job than Oats has too. Do I lean towards Oats? Absolutely. Should I not be comparing the two? Maybe not. But, again, beyond Oats, Odom is as legitimate an option as some of the other ones I've heard folks pull out of their asses on here.

No matter what you think about Odom as a candidate, check this out as Wake Forest fan. Move forward to 19:40 or so when they start talking to John Feinstein...great talk about Duke and Wake and an awesome Arnold Palmer anecdote.

https://www.umbcretrievers.com/sports/mbkb/2018-19/videos/20181204-5gesmgyq
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Shaka is still a home run hire imo and still pretty close to a can't miss hire. UT has a lot of built in advantages, but good coaches still struggle to win at a high level there. Barnes got ran out of town for the mediocre play his last few years there. Now, Barnes moved on to UTenn and had them as the #1 this year. In other words, I'm not convinced Shaka's mediocre results at UT are necessarily indicative of his coaching ability.
 
NCDomer said:
Shaka is still a home run hire imo and still pretty close to a can't miss hire. UT has a lot of built in advantages, but good coaches still struggle to win at a high level there. Barnes got ran out of town for the mediocre play his last few years there. Now, Barnes moved on to UTenn and had them as the #1 this year. In other words, I'm not convinced Shaka's mediocre results at UT are necessarily indicative of his coaching ability.
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I'm not convinced either. And I think he could see success here...maybe having learned from the Texas situation. But the facts are the facts...he's barely above .500 at a school that has at least more advantages than we do and is a better job. I love WF, but it is not as good a job as Texas. And the point being, he was a "homerun" and a "can't miss" and the evidence right now indicates he's mediocre at the highest level. If we hired him 5 years ago and were barely above .500 do you think our fan base would currently be happy?
 
wsc8521s said:
We can hire candidates that have proven so much more than Odom has. Let him move up the ladder and prove himself further. No need to settle for cronyism
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This attitude is just silly. We need the Coach that can achieve the most 2020-2050. Not the one who has achieved the most 1990-2020. Debate who that is. But don’t pretend that is based exclusively on resume. Bob Knight has the best resume.
 
donaldross said:
This attitude is just silly. We need the Coach that can achieve the most 2020-2050. Not the one who has achieved the most 1990-2020. Debate who that is. But don’t pretend that is based exclusively on resume. Bob Knight has the best resume.
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When you're right, you're right. DR is right.
 
We don't NEED a coach to be here 30 years. Would it be great to find that home run hire? Sure. But getting a coach to turn this around and head off to a different job means they earned it competing in the acc. Only looking at candidates with duke or wake ties is short sighted. It also does not guarantee they stick around for 30 years.
 
wsc8521s said:
America East is a low major, it's too big of a leap to an ACC job. There are only a couple serious programs in the conference and yet Odom has yet to have the best team (per metrics or round-robin regular season record) in the conference. Odom needs to prove himself further. It's too big of a risk given the shitshow we've endured the last decade
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So I was intrigued by this "low-major" v. "mid-major" idea. I've heard this before at times in this forum against others that the league they're in somehow is too far a leap to the ACC and that coaches from these "low-majors" need to prove more. But the MAC is just the right leap apparently. Somehow Oats in the MAC proves more than Odom in the AEC. I went back and checked which coaches over the last 20 years jumped from the MAC to a big-time job and who from the AEC in that same period of time. I think you'll find that the evidence indicates the MAC is not a better situation that the AEC in setting up future Power 6 success.

Coaches who have jumped directly from the MAC to a power conference since 2000:
Bobby Hurley to Arizona State
John Groce to Illinois
Gary Waters to Rutgers
Jim Christian to BC
Stan Heath to Arkansas

Coaches who have jumped directly from the AEC to a power conference since 2000:
Pat Chambers to Penn State
Mike Brey to Notre Dame
Jay Wright to Villanova
Steve Pikiell to Rutgers
 
deaconson said:
We don't NEED a coach to be here 30 years. Would it be great to find that home run hire? Sure. But getting a coach to turn this around and head off to a different job means they earned it competing in the acc. Only looking at candidates with duke or wake ties is short sighted. It also does not guarantee they stick around for 30 years.
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What he means here is don’t hire coaches with Wake ties. He’s being discriminatory and silly.
 
What he means is don't hire a candidate only because he has wake ties. That pool is way to small. Cast a larger net and that very well could/would include a person or people with wake ties. Evaluate all the pros and cons and narrow down from there.
 
Deacs9394 said:
So I was intrigued by this "low-major" v. "mid-major" idea. I've heard this before at times in this forum against others that the league they're in somehow is too far a leap to the ACC and that coaches from these "low-majors" need to prove more. But the MAC is just the right leap apparently. Somehow Oats in the MAC proves more than Odom in the AEC. I went back and checked which coaches over the last 20 years jumped from the MAC to a big-time job and who from the AEC in that same period of time. I think you'll find that the evidence indicates the MAC is not a better situation that the AEC in setting up future Power 6 success.

Coaches who have jumped directly from the MAC to a power conference since 2000:
Bobby Hurley to Arizona State
John Groce to Illinois
Gary Waters to Rutgers
Jim Christian to BC
Stan Heath to Arkansas

Coaches who have jumped directly from the AEC to a power conference since 2000:
Pat Chambers to Penn State
Mike Brey to Notre Dame
Jay Wright to Villanova
Steve Pikiell to Rutgers
Click to expand...

These lists are semi-deceptive. Brey had been an assistant at Duke for eight years. Jay Wright had been an assistant at Nova and UNLV (when they were a national power). Groce had been at NCSU, X and Ohio State. Heath had been at Michigan State. Chambers had been an assistant at Nova. Even Jim Christian had been at Pitt.

Very few have gone directly from a mid-major or below without any P6 experience whatsoever.
 
RJKarl said:
These lists are semi-deceptive. Brey had been an assistant at Duke for eight years. Jay Wright had been an assistant at Nova and UNLV (when they were a national power). Groce had been at NCSU, X and Ohio State. Heath had been at Michigan State. Chambers had been an assistant at Nova. Even Jim Christian had been at Pitt.

Very few have gone directly from a mid-major or below without any P6 experience whatsoever.
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Very few? You mean like Knight, Krzyzewski, Dean & Wooden? Folks like that?
 
donaldross said:
Wooden of course was hired in his 30s after 2 years on the Indiana state bench. That’s the home run hire. Someone you know to be smart, young and hungry.
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John Wooden had been NPOY, 3X consensus All-American, one of the first pro stars AND had taken his previous college coached team to a national championship game before taking over the disaster that was UCLA bball.

He had been at the top of college and pro basketball for nearly twenty years before getting the UCLA job (which was a terrible job at the time).

Tell the whole story once in a while.
 
RJKarl said:
These lists are semi-deceptive. Brey had been an assistant at Duke for eight years. Jay Wright had been an assistant at Nova and UNLV (when they were a national power). Groce had been at NCSU, X and Ohio State. Heath had been at Michigan State. Chambers had been an assistant at Nova. Even Jim Christian had been at Pitt.

Very few have gone directly from a mid-major or below without any P6 experience whatsoever.
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OK, but the contention by wsc8521s was that a coach from the AEC couldn't make the jump, but a MAC coach could because the MAC is more "mid-major". Your point seems to be that all of these guys had assistant coaching experience first, but what does that have to do with if the MAC is a better indicator of future P6 success than the AEC? So, I still don't see how that makes my list "semi-deceptive". Is there any evidence in your response that shows the MAC is a better launching pad than the AEC? No.
 
Deacs9394 said:
OK, but the contention by wsc8521s was that a coach from the AEC couldn't make the jump, but a MAC coach could because the MAC is more "mid-major". Your point seems to be that all of these guys had assistant coaching experience first, but what does that have to do with if the MAC is a better indicator of future P6 success than the AEC? So, I still don't see how that makes my list "semi-deceptive". Is there any evidence in your response that shows the MAC is a better launching pad than the AEC? No.
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All I was showing is that it wasn't about either of those conferences. Most of them had histories in the big time before becoming head coaches.

It's very, very difficult (and rare) to go from a lower conference to the P6 without having any P6 experience. It becomes who the person is not the lower conference where they started.
 
Deacs9394 said:
So I was intrigued by this "low-major" v. "mid-major" idea. I've heard this before at times in this forum against others that the league they're in somehow is too far a leap to the ACC and that coaches from these "low-majors" need to prove more. But the MAC is just the right leap apparently. Somehow Oats in the MAC proves more than Odom in the AEC. I went back and checked which coaches over the last 20 years jumped from the MAC to a big-time job and who from the AEC in that same period of time. I think you'll find that the evidence indicates the MAC is not a better situation that the AEC in setting up future Power 6 success.

Coaches who have jumped directly from the MAC to a power conference since 2000:
Bobby Hurley to Arizona State
John Groce to Illinois
Gary Waters to Rutgers
Jim Christian to BC
Stan Heath to Arkansas

Coaches who have jumped directly from the AEC to a power conference since 2000:
Pat Chambers to Penn State
Mike Brey to Notre Dame
Jay Wright to Villanova
Steve Pikiell to Rutgers
Click to expand...

Pat Chambers is the only one of those that didn’t have significantly more success in the AEC than Odom. In a few weeks he will be fired. If you want to use those guys as the template then Becker is the one we should hire.

What you are missing is that having a top 25 team in the MAC is something that does not happen. Hurley’s best team was 58th, Groce’s best team was 57th, Christian’s was 82nd, Heath’s was 14th but his tenure at Kent State was a single year with a team that Waters built. So, if Waters is the only one in the same territory as Oats, that’s not a bad sign because he has had the most successful stint at Rutgers of any coach since they have been in the Big East.
 
Deacs9394 said:
OK, but the contention by wsc8521s was that a coach from the AEC couldn't make the jump, but a MAC coach could because the MAC is more "mid-major". Your point seems to be that all of these guys had assistant coaching experience first, but what does that have to do with if the MAC is a better indicator of future P6 success than the AEC? So, I still don't see how that makes my list "semi-deceptive". Is there any evidence in your response that shows the MAC is a better launching pad than the AEC? No.
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Most of the schools you alluded aren’t in the AEC anymore. Hofstra and Delaware, for example, are in the far superior Colonial (VCU was in that league for a while). The AEC is pretty terrible these days. I think the main point isn’t to restrict certain conferences but rather that coaches who have never had truly good teams are probably far too risky.

Guys like Oats, Rhoades, etc. who’ve coached at better conferences have also had better teams. I think we should also be open to coaches at smaller conference who have had legitimately good teams (eg Richey at Furman).
 
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