Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

[Deacs9394]

Odom, Miller, Kelsey, et al have done good jobs at their schools and are good candidates to move up to mid major schools, like when Kelsey considered UMass and Miller was in the running for the UNCW gig. But none are high caliber candidates for an ACC school and the only reason they are in discussion is because of previous ties (pretty loose, at that) to Wake.

We've already established, with evidence, that mid-major hires (out of the MAC in particular) don't always = success and low-major hires have sometimes
equaled success. Again, a silly delineation, imo.

To your second point, exactly! That is exactly why I like someone like Odom...ties to Wake. My point over and over has been that maybe someone like Oats stands out as an obvious slam dunk. I'm not sure that's true, but I will grant that he is an outstanding candidate and we should get him if we can. But when you start getting past "slam dunk" territory, it is absolutely a crap-shoot.

Over and over it feels like folks are dismissing guys with Wake ties as if it is a negative. Someone called it "cronysim". Good gracious. Programs much more impressive than ours have done this over and over with success. It is an added positive, imo. Do I think we should hire someone solely due to ties...absolutely not. But a guys who has proven it AND has ties to the most successful coach in the past 50 years of the program...I don't know, but that might be an added bonus.

 

[Deaconblue]

If I'm hiring the next Wake basketball coach, I am going through the coaches at every P6 school. Most will be put into the "won't come to Wake" and/or "not a good fit" categories. There should be a few who both might move and have the background to fit at Wake. I would put Shaka in this category. He just might be looking for a way out of Texas.

I would also look at top assistants. There might be a few with prior head coaching experience who took P6 assistant job as a stepping stone back to P6 head coaching job. Key issues would include (but not be limited to) why and how they got where they are. What were the reasons for them not being at the P6 HC job?

Need to look really hard at mid major and low major head coaches who have no prior association with any P6 program. It seems that recruiting "top 100" guys is different from recruiting the rest. Most of the mid major coaches who have done well after moving up to P6 have had some time in P6 programs. Seems that some experience in P6 programs is helpful in being head coach of a P6 program. (It may not be enough, though.)

 

[netflixnchildres]

Blasphemy being spewed across these boards! Heretics!
https://imgflip.com/memegenerator

 

[NCDomer]

Why do we keep overlooking Wojo? He's mentioned as a home run hire, but then it's back to Matta and Oats. Is it because Wojo probably isn't attainable? I'd think he'd want to leave the BE for the right opportunity, which means we're thinking Wake has lost too much luster after Bz buried the program and DM laid the sod.

 

[Deacfreak07]

I would rather not have a team than have Wojo.

 

[Frosty]

Why do we keep overlooking Wojo? He's mentioned as a home run hire, but then it's back to Matta and Oats. Is it because Wojo probably isn't attainable? I'd think he'd want to leave the BE for the right opportunity, which means we're thinking Wake has lost too much luster after Bz buried the program and DM laid the sod.

He’s likely not attainable at this point. I doubt Wojo comes back to the ACC unless it’s for the Duke job when K retires. I have zero evidence to back up this take.

 

[Deacfreak07]

Fuck Wojo.

 

[wsc8521s]

This attitude is just silly. We need the Coach that can achieve the most 2020-2050. Not the one who has achieved the most 1990-2020. Debate who that is. But don’t pretend that is based exclusively on resume. Bob Knight has the best resume.

Sure, but there's a balance. And I see no reason why Oats can't achieve the most 2020-2050.

Your logic is starting to sound dangerously close to Ron's, going off feelings and ties to the area/school as reasons as opposed to who the best/most deserving candidate is

 

[Deacs9394]

If he had the KenPom ranking of 26 with it like he does a UT, then yes. It seems like Shaka has lost a ton of close games while at UT. He has had pretty good talent the bulk of his time at UT, but seemed to always be missing a player for a critical position most of the time. I also think that being at UT and being able to recruit at a higher level has caused him to recruit based more on talent than on schematic fit. Some guys simply don't fit the style of play he's known for. Plus, some talented guys don't like to play or aren't good at playing his style of defense, which also hurts his teams because they lose confidence and get tired out on defense making their offense suffer. It's kind of like when Roy Williams' talent resides in big, lumbering guys, yet he still tries to play up tempo rather than dominating play in slow, half-court contests.

I'm sorry, but this is the problem. You would be happy if our next coach had a high KenPom but lacked actual success in the win-loss column and in the NCAA's? I don't know how to respond to that.

The ironic part is you then spend the rest of the time here explaining it away. Losing close games, not having the right players to fit schematically...yada, yada, yada. This is ironic...you are clearly a KenPom fan and the data end of it, but then spend most of your time explaining away actual success with unmeasurable intangibles.

 

[wsc8521s]

Over and over it feels like folks are dismissing guys with Wake ties as if it is a negative. Someone called it "cronysim". Good gracious. Programs much more impressive than ours have done this over and over with success

Is this true? Genuine question, not a ton of examples pop immediately to my mind. And don't give me Roy who had already proven he could win large @ Kansas. Gary Williams? He had held three jobs with varying success (including BC and Ohio State) before he got the Maryland job. Bill Self's one year as a KU assistant? He was a slam-dunk hire when Kansas got him.

I can't shake the distinct feeling that you like Odom because he's Dave's son, and you are then building your case off of that. I prefer to go off the evidence first and then develop my opinion from there

 

[netflixnchildres]

Sure, but there's a balance. And I see no reason why Oats can't achieve the most 2020-2050.

Your logic is starting to sound dangerously close to Ron's, going off feelings and ties to the area/school as reasons as opposed to who the best/most deserving candidate is

Ron's subliminal programming of the Deacon Club is working. It began over a decade ago after he returned from a trip to St. Petersburg, where he was instructed by the world's leading experts.

 

[Frosty]

Sure, but there's a balance. And I see no reason why Oats can't achieve the most 2020-2050.

Your logic is starting to sound dangerously close to Ron's, going off feelings and ties to the area/school as reasons as opposed to who the best/most deserving candidate is

I agree that Oats can be this guy and if this is the criteria then he’s the best fit. He’s 44. If he stays on his current trajectory he will be a HC somewhere for at least the next 25 years. I would like for that to be at Wake since it presumes success.

 

[NCDomer]

While we're at it, RW better put out feelers to Howland as well. I don't care if he's 60+. Wake needs someone to get the program off the floor.

 

[Ayo]

If you don't know who Jairus Lyles is without having to go to Google, then shut the heck up about Ryan Odom.

 

[NCDomer]

I'm sorry, but this is the problem. You would be happy if our next coach had a high KenPom but lacked actual success in the win-loss column and in the NCAA's? I don't know how to respond to that.

The ironic part is you then spend the rest of the time here explaining it away. Losing close games, not having the right players to fit schematically...yada, yada, yada. This is ironic...you are clearly a KenPom fan and the data end of it, but then spend most of your time explaining away actual success with unmeasurable intangibles.

What I was arguing is that Shaka didn't do a good job during his first few years of figuring out how to reconcile being able to recruit higher level talent and ensuring that that talent fits the style of play he uses in games. It's the same thing Roy Williams tends to do at UNC. With that said, I think Shaka is turning the corner and has come to realize such flawed recruiting he had initially that resulted in poor performance. That's where data is helpful in evaluating the quality of a team beyond what a W-L might indicate.

KenPom is just one data point (that is based off a bunch of data points). W-L matters, but if you're playing .500 ball because you're playing strong competition, .500 is respectable. For example, Radford is considered a "bad" loss for UT this year, but Radford is a tournament team albeit an at-large bid sub-100 Kenpom one. And it was merely a 1-possession loss. UT has several quality wins over the year and has been competitive in all of its losses. The only have two losses by double digits, and those were 10-point losses. One to UGA and one to MichSt. Couple that with wins over Purdue, UNC, and Kansas.

Going back to data. KenPom suggests UT is a quality team this year. UT played a top 15ish SOS. 25-1 Houston otoh has played a sub 100 SOS. I'd put my $ on UT to best Houston in a best of 7. Same goes for 23-5 UNCG. Beating a bunch of weak competition doesn't tell me how good you are. It simply tells me you're better than bad teams. If you consistently beat a variety of good teams, then a better record suggests you have a good team. UT has had mixed results against good teams suggesting it is a good team that's a bit schizo.

 

[knowell]

If I'm hiring the next Wake basketball coach, I am going through the coaches at every P6 school. Most will be put into the "won't come to Wake" and/or "not a good fit" categories. There should be a few who both might move and have the background to fit at Wake. I would put Shaka in this category. He just might be looking for a way out of Texas.

I would also look at top assistants. There might be a few with prior head coaching experience who took P6 assistant job as a stepping stone back to P6 head coaching job. Key issues would include (but not be limited to) why and how they got where they are. What were the reasons for them not being at the P6 HC job?

Need to look really hard at mid major and low major head coaches who have no prior association with any P6 program. It seems that recruiting "top 100" guys is different from recruiting the rest. Most of the mid major coaches who have done well after moving up to P6 have had some time in P6 programs. Seems that some experience in P6 programs is helpful in being head coach of a P6 program. (It may not be enough, though.)

I am glad you are not making that decision. You will find no one in the P6 that will want to come to Wake that I would want.

Either someone on the way down or a tired retread.

Look for someone on the way up and get him before he becomes unattainable.

Are you Ron Wellman?

 

[knowell]

While we're at it, RW better put out feelers to Howland as well. I don't care if he's 60+. Wake needs someone to get the program off the floor.

A 60 year old taking a step back at this point in his career??

WTF?

 

[knowell]

What I was arguing is that Shaka didn't do a good job during his first few years of figuring out how to reconcile being able to recruit higher level talent and ensuring that that talent fits the style of play he uses in games. It's the same thing Roy Williams tends to do at UNC. With that said, I think Shaka is turning the corner and has come to realize such flawed recruiting he had initially that resulted in poor performance. That's where data is helpful in evaluating the quality of a team beyond what a W-L might indicate.

KenPom is just one data point (that is based off a bunch of data points). W-L matters, but if you're playing .500 ball because you're playing strong competition, .500 is respectable. For example, Radford is considered a "bad" loss for UT this year, but Radford is a tournament team albeit an at-large bid sub-100 Kenpom one. And it was merely a 1-possession loss. UT has several quality wins over the year and has been competitive in all of its losses. The only have two losses by double digits, and those were 10-point losses. One to UGA and one to MichSt. Couple that with wins over Purdue, UNC, and Kansas.

Going back to data. KenPom suggests UT is a quality team this year. UT played a top 15ish SOS. 25-1 Houston otoh has played a sub 100 SOS. I'd put my $ on UT to best Houston in a best of 7. Same goes for 23-5 UNCG. Beating a bunch of weak competition doesn't tell me how good you are. It simply tells me you're better than bad teams. If you consistently beat a variety of good teams, then a better record suggests you have a good team. UT has had mixed results against good teams suggesting it is a good team that's a bit schizo.

Except Roy wins championships. Kenpom has some value but is hardly a great metric. Unless, of course, you feel Manning has had a couple of pretty good years at Wake.

Are you Rchild?

 

[Deacs9394]

Is this true? Genuine question, not a ton of examples pop immediately to my mind. And don't give me Roy who had already proven he could win large @ Kansas. Gary Williams? He had held three jobs with varying success (including BC and Ohio State) before he got the Maryland job. Bill Self's one year as a KU assistant? He was a slam-dunk hire when Kansas got him.

I can't shake the distinct feeling that you like Odom because he's Dave's son, and you are then building your case off of that. I prefer to go off the evidence first and then develop my opinion from there

Of course Odom pops to mind initially because of his connection to Dave. Again, that is a GOOD thing. But then I researched it a bit and I think you'd see he's very good. And it his resume, in addition to Wake ties, that makes him, imo, a legit candidate. He has Power 6 assistant coaching experience for 7 seasons, interim HC at Charlotte, turned around a DII school in one year, and turned around UMBC immediately. And that doesn't even include the historic thrashing of UVA. He's a viable candidate.

Although I don't agree that you can dismiss Roy or Gary Williams from my point, there are others that come to mind. Do Jamie Dixon and Bob Huggins count? If not, how about everyone who is promoted from within? That's many examples...right? I mean they only get the job over other viable candidates because of their connection to the program. Every coach ever, it seems, at Xavier fits this as do Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Michigan State, etc. So if you won't give me that either, what about Connecticut - Kevin Ollie, Villanova - Jay Wright, St. John's - Chris Mullin and Frank Mcguire, Georgetown - John Thompson III and Patrick Ewing, Cincinnati - Mick Cronin, Purdue - Matt Painter, Iowa State - Fred Hoiberg...I'm sure there are more.

 

[Deac83]

Performance at UT is relative. Barnes won 20 games in 15 of his 17 years there, yet they ran him out of town. Two year's of rebuilding at the other UT and he's got them rolling. Given the resources and his predecessor, I'd say the natives are restless. If you have the advantages and resources of a Texas, starting to figure it out in year 4 is not very good for a P6 coach.