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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

Over the years, I've learned that intelligence should be measured not only by how many concepts you understand, but by your ability to realize which concepts simply don't make sense in your brain and learning how to STFU about them
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
A good example of this in the opposite way is Wake's 2016 team.

The start to the season we were 9-3 with narrow wins over UMBC, UCLA, Indiana, Arkansas, and Coastal.

The average margin of victory was +0.7. We then got run through in conference. You could tell our luck would run out eventually.

Against teams in the top 100 we were 4-3 with an average scoring margin of -3.29.

You could tell we were not as good as our winning record seemed to indicate.

We were 9-3 in OOC and 101st in Kenpom with wins over four good teams.
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That's just OOC games. Penn State has played 13 conference games as well as their OOC schedule.

Sorry, you can't be the 58th best team in the country if you have played 80% of your games, are 9-15 overall and 2-11 in your league. They have many more losses to mediocre or bad teams than good wins.

Any system that says you are that good has many flaws.
 
In two weeks Maryland plays Penn State in Happy Valley. Maryland is 19-6. What do you think the Vegas line will be RJ?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
In two weeks Maryland plays Penn State in Happy Valley. Maryland is 19-6. What do you think the Vegas line will be RJ?
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I don't care about the Vegas line. My position has less than nothing to do with that. Let me make this perfectly clear:

Any system that says Penn State is the 58th best team in the country (which by putting a number them it de facto does) is seriously flawed due to the totality of the results of games they have played.

That's it.
 
Deacs9394 said:
This is why Kelsey is the answer. The Prosser connection is good...Prosser himself plus Mack, Kelsey, Gaudio for 3 years here. I'm staying on the Kelsey train no matter how far he seems to have fallen from the conversation. His resume is better than Miller's and his enthusiasm is infectious. We need that desperately...the Joel would return as a fun and exciting place to play in.
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Skip was by all accounts a great guy and did a fantastic job bringing enthusiasm back to the Joel. But he was no John Wooden, particularly on defense. IMO, it doesn't matter if a potential coach with the right credentials has a Prosser connection.
 
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Buttermaker said:
Skip was by all accounts a great guy and did a fantastic job bringing enthusiasm back to the Joel. But he was no John Wooden, particularly on defense. IMO, I don't think it matters if a potential coach with the right credentials has a Prosser connection.
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Kelsey is a better choice than HOF Wes or many of the other second level candidates. Matta is clearly a better choice. Oats is likely better. If Wade doesn't have a stench, I'd take him over Pat as well.

Why Pat is a good choice is that he has had success at two P6 schools and helped recruit big time players for both. As a HC, he's done very well. Having Wake ties is next on the list. It's not on the top of the list.
 
RJKarl said:
I don't care about the Vegas line. My position has less than nothing to do with that. Let me make this perfectly clear:

Any system that says Penn State is the 58th best team in the country (which by putting a number them it de facto does) is seriously flawed due to the totality of the results of games they have played.

That's it.
Click to expand...

How about if you are trying to create a ranking system to predict the result of the next game? such as if you are setting Vegas lines with millions of dollars on the line?
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
A good example of this in the opposite way is Wake's 2016 team.

The start to the season we were 9-3 with narrow wins over UMBC, UCLA, Indiana, Arkansas, and Coastal.

The average margin of victory was +0.7. We then got run through in conference. You could tell our luck would run out eventually.

Against teams in the top 100 we were 4-3 with an average scoring margin of -3.29.

You could tell we were not as good as our winning record seemed to indicate.

We were 9-3 in OOC and 101st in Kenpom with wins over four good teams.
Click to expand...

For reference, Penn State was 6-6 in OOC with an average scoring margin of +4.5.

Wake's average ranking for their opponent was 129.41. Penn State's average opponent was 111.91.

One team had a record of 9-3, the other 6-6. Which team would you predict would've been better at the time?
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
For reference, Penn State was 6-6 in OOC with an average scoring margin of +4.5.

Wake's average ranking for their opponent was 129.41. Penn State's average opponent was 111.91.

One team had a record of 9-3, the other 6-6. Which team would you predict would've been better at the time?
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Without knowing who they would be playing, where and status of the team, that's an impossible question to answer.
 
Who they did play in OOC or who they would be playing the rest of the season? And what does the status of the team mean?
 
There's NOTHING about that. It's EXACTLY same as the "studies" that said there is no such thing as a hot hand. You can hand-pick numbers and specific opponents to "prove" anything.

None of Charlotte's Trumpian attempts to change the subject will deflect his or Numbers hypocrisy on this thread.

Keep changing the subject away Charlotte, you could a job on Faux News.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
Who they did play in OOC or who they would be playing the rest of the season? And what does the status of the team mean?
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Status of the team means who is available, injuries.

Who they played in the game in question matters. Are they playing a good team? A team the other team has already played? Are the conferences equal?

Questions like you are impossible to answer in the total abstract in which they are asked.
 
Buttermaker said:
Skip was by all accounts a great guy and did a fantastic job bringing enthusiasm back to the Joel. But he was no John Wooden, particularly on defense. IMO, it doesn't matter if a potential coach with the right credentials has a Prosser connection.
Click to expand...

The benefit of the Prosser connection is that Prosser was Kelsey’s mentor early in his career and Kelsey would take great pride and work harder than most to finish the job that his mentor died trying to do, restore Wake to the basketball program it once was. Admittedly it is just a theory, but the bonus is that Kelsey seems to be a pretty good coach and also has the passion and drive that Prosser had. I think he can pull it off but what do I know. Of course you could apply the same theory to Randolph except that Odom didn’t die trying to make Wake a great program.

Anyway, I’m pretty sure we are going to end up with a donk that no one is excited about. So I can’t get too excited about any of this speculation. #SteveLavinin
 
Kelsey is a close 2nd choice for me. Have loved his passion for nearly 20 years now. He brings energy. He’s smart, young, & hungry. X made a huge mistake passion on him. He well could be a 30 year get for us now that X is out of the picture.
 
donaldross said:
Kelsey is a close 2nd choice for me. Have loved his passion for nearly 20 years now. He brings energy. He’s smart, young, & hungry. X made a huge mistake passion on him. He well could be a 30 year get for us now that X is out of the picture.
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Second to whom?
 
Buttermaker said:
Skip was by all accounts a great guy and did a fantastic job bringing enthusiasm back to the Joel. But he was no John Wooden, particularly on defense. IMO, it doesn't matter if a potential coach with the right credentials has a Prosser connection.
Click to expand...

I think you and others are missing my point. Perhaps that's because I worded it poorly. I agree, we should hire the best coach for sure. My point was that it seems that coaches who worked with Prosser seem to be successful, so that's a bonus.

The "best hire", though, is an inexact science. Any mid-major hire is going to be a crap shoot and therefore there is NO WAY anyone on here knows if one of these guys will absolutely succeed. I hear talk that Oats is a "homerun hire"...as if it is a forgone conclusion he succeeds. Maybe he will be. But, then again, maybe not. That has been the thinking with many, many mid-major coaches who have crashed and burned at the highest level. Just look at Shaka Smart at this point...he's 61-59 at Texas. Meh. I figure many folks on this board were all over Shaka 5 years ago with the absolute 100% belief he was a homerun and would not doubt succeed. Just do a quick search of threads back then...he was a can't miss. Not happening at Texas is it? A place that arguably has a better situation than Wake. Would he have been more successful here? Who knows. Which is exactly the point..mid-major hires into the big leagues are hit or miss. See this article from 2015 grading Shaka and other 2015 hires: https://bustingbrackets.com/2015/04/09/coaching-carousel-grading-college-basketballs-new-hires/

With that said, you are then in a position to look at solid mid-major candidates as effectively equal. There is no way you can predict that Oats will DEFINITELY be better than Kelsey. Or that HOF Wes will be the second coming. I figure back in 2015 there were very few on this board who thought Shaka would struggle so much more that say Steve Prohm has a Iowa State...and that's effectively apples to apples since they're in the same league. How many here predicted that? Some maybe. Most others, no freaking way. Again, we have NO idea. Then you are left with...here's the pool of potential candidates who have an upside. And then we need other stuff to go on...whose tree does he come from and is there a history of success there? Has he been an assistant with big time recruiting experience? Are they enthusiastic and will pump ebergy back into the program and the Joel? Do they have a connection that makes coming to Wake "special" for them? Etc.
 
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