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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

A mid-major coach coming off a top 50 season is a pretty good bet. Anything lower is a losing bet.
 
Do a search. I broke it down today on another thread.
 
Ron Wellman’s Basketball Coach Shortlist:
- Jay Wright
- Mark Gottfried
- Phil Fulmer
- Grace the waitress from Mozelle’s
- Cornbread Maxwell
 
PhDeac said:
Do a search. I broke it down today on another thread.
Click to expand...

Just looked at it. Your choices of who to include and not to include make it an inexact analysis. Where's Shaka @ VCU in your analysis? Steve Prohm? I see you included him in 2012 but in 2013 his Kenpom at Murray State was 131 and in 2014 it was 135. The year he was hired at Iowa State they were 57 and outside the arbitrary Top 55 threshold you mentioned. In the interest of time, looking only at 2014, where's these top 50 mid-major coaches in your analysis...Derek Kellogg from UMass? Archie Miller Dayton? Jim Crews St. Louis?

Shaka had the following Kenpoms before going to Texas...
2011 - 53
2012 - 46
2013 - 18
2014 - 25
2015 - 30

So I think I'll stick with the premise that it is hit or miss. I grant you that it is perhaps a safer bet the higher up the rankings, but absolutely not guaranteed. What do you think Dave Clawson's Kenpom in football, if it existed, would have been at Bowling Green?
 
RaleighTriad said:
Ron Wellman’s Basketball Coach Shortlist:
- Jay Wright
- Mark Gottfried
- Phil Fulmer
- Grace the waitress from Mozelle’s
- Cornbread Maxwell
Click to expand...

This is comedy gold... But make sure you save up enough material for your Netflix stand up special.
 
Talked to a long time high level DClubber today who said Wellman recently asked for an extension and was told you are 72, and turned him down. Some good sign.
 
PTownDeac said:
Anybody at this point is a major upgrade over Danny Manning.
Click to expand...

Kidnapping a random coach off the sidelines at any YMCA would be a major upgrade over Manning.’

I like where this search is headed if the floor is truly a Miller/Kelsey hire.
 
Why? What makes you so confident Wellman won’t go down to the basement again?
 
Deacs9394 said:
Just looked at it. Your choices of who to include and not to include make it an inexact analysis. Where's Shaka @ VCU in your analysis? Steve Prohm? I see you included him in 2012 but in 2013 his Kenpom at Murray State was 131 and in 2014 it was 135. The year he was hired at Iowa State they were 57 and outside the arbitrary Top 55 threshold you mentioned. In the interest of time, looking only at 2014, where's these top 50 mid-major coaches in your analysis...Derek Kellogg from UMass? Archie Miller Dayton? Jim Crews St. Louis?

Shaka had the following Kenpoms before going to Texas...
2011 - 53
2012 - 46
2013 - 18
2014 - 25
2015 - 30

So I think I'll stick with the premise that it is hit or miss. I grant you that it is perhaps a safer bet the higher up the rankings, but absolutely not guaranteed. What do you think Dave Clawson's Kenpom in football, if it existed, would have been at Bowling Green?
Click to expand...

I based it off Waldo’s list. Look at it again. You’ll see 55 isn’t arbitrary. Obviously there are no guarantees but the idea that a top 100 season from a coach is a good sign is false. Much more evidence that top 50 is a good sign.
 
PTownDeac said:
Anybody at this point is a major upgrade over Danny Manning.
Click to expand...

Including my shih tzu. One poster, on a previous thread, acknowledged this would make a better press conference. I was thinking, "Dayyyyyum - that's true"

If ya think about it, after watching us play "wooooof" does cover it.
 
I think our back and forth started with me contending that a mid-major hire is hit or miss. I'll stick with that premise. Your argument was 50-100 is a loss and top 50 is a good bet. After looking at it, the data just doesn't prove that. There are still To 50 coaches that have not done well when moving up to the big time and there are 50-100 who have succeeded. And to begin with, there are very few Top 50 mid-major examples and that makes it statistically insignificant anyway. I mean I just watched Bryce Drew lose last night to fall to 0-10 in the SEC. His Kenpom the year before getting the bigger was top 50 and Texas Tech destroyed Ok St by 28 and Chris Beard's Kenpom before getting the bugger gig was outside the Top 50. So it seems to me there are better things to look at. And it seems to me that mid-major hires...any hire for that matter...is a gamble. So I double back to my original point way back...the whole picture matters in the process and to me Kelsey has that. And he might succeed or he might fail. The other guys mentioned on this board may or may not end up successful either. We have no idea.
 
Deacs9394 said:
I think our back and forth started with me contending that a mid-major hire is hit or miss. I'll stick with that premise. Your argument was 50-100 is a loss and top 50 is a good bet. After looking at it, the data just doesn't prove that. There are still To 50 coaches that have not done well when moving up to the big time and there are 50-100 who have succeeded. And to begin with, there are very few Top 50 mid-major examples and that makes it statistically insignificant anyway. I mean I just watched Bryce Drew lose last night to fall to 0-10 in the SEC. His Kenpom the year before getting the bigger was top 50 and Texas Tech destroyed Ok St by 28 and Chris Beard's Kenpom before getting the bugger gig was outside the Top 50. So it seems to me there are better things to look at. And it seems to me that mid-major hires...any hire for that matter...is a gamble. So I double back to my original point way back...the whole picture matters in the process and to me Kelsey has that. And he might succeed or he might fail. The other guys mentioned on this board may or may not end up successful either. We have no idea.
Click to expand...

Well the gist of what you are saying is that there are intangibles in the hiring process that us outsiders can’t evaluate. That is why there is a guy making over a million dollars to handle those evaluations. I honestly believe if the boards could watch every “interview”, the consensus would be unanimous. There is just no way that either Bz or DM could have won anyone over one on one. My gut believes Oats is the man for the job, but maybe if I was privy to his plan to resurrect the program, I’d have a change of heart.
 
Deacs9394 said:
I think our back and forth started with me contending that a mid-major hire is hit or miss. I'll stick with that premise. Your argument was 50-100 is a loss and top 50 is a good bet. After looking at it, the data just doesn't prove that. There are still To 50 coaches that have not done well when moving up to the big time and there are 50-100 who have succeeded. And to begin with, there are very few Top 50 mid-major examples and that makes it statistically insignificant anyway. I mean I just watched Bryce Drew lose last night to fall to 0-10 in the SEC. His Kenpom the year before getting the bigger was top 50 and Texas Tech destroyed Ok St by 28 and Chris Beard's Kenpom before getting the bugger gig was outside the Top 50. So it seems to me there are better things to look at. And it seems to me that mid-major hires...any hire for that matter...is a gamble. So I double back to my original point way back...the whole picture matters in the process and to me Kelsey has that. And he might succeed or he might fail. The other guys mentioned on this board may or may not end up successful either. We have no idea.
Click to expand...

There is no sure thing in any prediction, but ph is suggesting that coaches who get a mid major into the top 50 have a higher likelihood to succeed at a p6 than ones outside the top 50. Some fail anyway, and some coaches in the top 150 succeed regardless; there a counter examples for either case, but generally speaking, prior success is a good predictor of future success.
 
Big two-game roady for UNCG tonight and Saturday. Tonight, UNCG plays at #59 20-5 Furman (Furman has a win at Villanova), and then Saturday, Wes Miller's crew travels to #30 21-4 Wofford (who may be line for an at-large bid if they don't win the SoCon tourney). A Wofford win over UNCG would likely sew up the #1 seed for the Terriers (Wofford) for the SoCon tourney.

FWIW, UNCG is +4 tonight.
 
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Hey, Kelsey did better at FSU than we did, so there’s that.
 
Pilchard said:
Big two-game roady for UNCG tonight and Saturday. Tonight, UNCG plays at #59 20-5 Furman (Furman has a win at Villanova), and then Saturday, Wes Miller's crew travels to #30 21-4 Wofford (who may be line for an at-large bid if they don't win the SoCon tourney). A Wofford win over UNCG would likely sew up the #1 seed for the Terriers (Wofford) for the SoCon tourney.

FWIW, UNCG is +4 tonight.
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Just seems weird that Wake under Manning might not be a top half of the conference team in the Big South. Probable makes as much money as the aggregate for all coaches in the Big South.

Please donate to Wake where your money will be used wisely.
 
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