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Predict the final 8 games

Clawson is a Williams graduate. He tasted the dumb jock factory atmosphere at Tennessee. Cerebral coach at a high academic institution. Polar opposite of dumb Al Groh. Clawson has found his home.
 
I think this Wake team has the potential to be as good, or possibly better, than the 2006 team. Gotta go out and win the games.

Sagarin would say that right now this team is comparable to the best Wake teams in the last 15 years. The offense certainly looks the part and the defense is coming along.

Still have to go out and win the games.
 
Brendan207 said:
Duke smoked Virginia Tech 45-10 in Blacksburg? Not many of you guys predicted a Wake loss to Duke but they looked very good tonight. Virginia Tech has officially fallen on hard hard times. Loss to ODU last season. Blowout loss to Duke this season. Hopefully their nothing to even brag about anymore bowl streak will end soon.
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I forgot about that bowl streak. What is it at now? Certainly in danger.

And Duke certainly showed they can play. I look forward to that game immensely.
 
Now that this team has a conference road win under their belt, I'm feeling much better about something in the neighborhood of 10-2. Clemson + one of Duke/Cuse/FSU as our two losses. Clawson gets ACC COY honors.
 
For years, our equals are BC, Duke, NCSU, and 'Cuse. We play them every year. Have comparable rosters, and play 2 of them at home. We need at least 2 wins to have a chance at a bowl. they are our yardstick for success. So far, so good.
 
ESPN's FPI now ranks Duke ahead of the Deacs and lists Duke as a slight favorite in Winston

WF's odds of winning remaining games are currently as follows:

UL - 69% dudes
FSU 52% (FPI judges FSU the better team, WF gets the home-field bump)
NCSU - also 69%
@VT - 66% (weakest remaining opponent, rated one slot ahead of BC)
@Clem - 5% (doubled our odds from a week ago)
Duke - 49.6%
@Syr - 54%
 
thatguy2016 said:
ESPN's FPI now ranks Duke ahead of the Deacs and lists Duke as a slight favorite in Winston

WF's odds of winning remaining games are currently as follows:

UL - 69% dudes
FSU 52% (FPI judges FSU the better team, WF gets the home-field bump)
NCSU - also 69%
@VT - 66% (weakest remaining opponent, rated one slot ahead of BC)
@Clem - 5% (doubled our odds from a week ago)
Duke - 49.6%
@Syr - 54%
Click to expand...

Similarly, SP+ projections:

UL - 64.7%
FSU - 53.5%
NCSU - 59.1%
@VT - 54.7%
@Clem - 9%
Duke - 51.9%
@Syr - 51.9%

Expected wins: 8.44 - down from last week by .05 even though we got a win. Per SP+, Wake had a 15% post-game win expectancy.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Similarly, SP+ projections:

UL - 64.7%
FSU - 53.5%
NCSU - 59.1%
@VT - 54.7%
@Clem - 9%
Duke - 51.9%
@Syr - 51.9%

Expected wins: 8.44 - down from last week by .05 even though we got a win. Per SP+, Wake had a 15% post-game win expectancy.
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Yeah, this makes zero sense.
 
Which part? We got outgained by two yards a play by BC, won the turnover battle 3-1, and it was a road game.
 
The week to week changes also consider the other team's performance as well. While VaTech is struggling this year, Duke looked very impressive in that game (especially the defense) and FSU beat NC State quite handily. I have a ton of confidence in this year's Wake team, but as a long time Wake fan, never take any game for granted. Given performances so far, we should beat Louisville, NC State and VaTech and lose at Clemson (UNC was their one letdown game). The other three (Duke, FSU and @Syracuse) seem like toss ups to me. I think we take two of those three and finish 10-2.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Which part? We got outgained by two yards a play by BC, won the turnover battle 3-1, and it was a road game.
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While I understand that the models can't take such a deep dive into each game, the turnover stat strikes me as being misleading given that A. We lost three yards on Bassey intercepting his pass rather than batting it down (was 4th down at the 21, we took over at the 18); and B. The last turnover, which I didn't even realize occurred, took place on their lateral play that had no prayer of succeeding anyway. Third-down conversions and kicking were really the difference in the game, IMO, not turnovers.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
While I understand that the models can't take such a deep dive into each game, the turnover stat strikes me as being misleading given that A. We lost three yards on Bassey intercepting his pass rather than batting it down (was 4th down at the 21, we took over at the 18); and B. The last turnover, which I didn't even realize occurred, took place on their lateral play that had no prayer of succeeding anyway. Third-down conversions and kicking were really the difference in the game, IMO, not turnovers.
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The first BC turnover was significant. It killed their first drive and led directly to a Wake score.

The one Wake turnover may have kept Sciba's string of made FG intact. If the pass had been incomplete, Wake would have had a fourth down at long FG range or short punt or go on fourth down. The int inside the BC10 was effectively a punt one down early.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
While I understand that the models can't take such a deep dive into each game, the turnover stat strikes me as being misleading given that A. We lost three yards on Bassey intercepting his pass rather than batting it down (was 4th down at the 21, we took over at the 18); and B. The last turnover, which I didn't even realize occurred, took place on their lateral play that had no prayer of succeeding anyway. Third-down conversions and kicking were really the difference in the game, IMO, not turnovers.
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Yeah that's very fair.

Obviously the yards per play are the major reason BC had the 85% post game win probability. Their inability on third down was mitigated by the fact that they had half as many attempts as Wake (but yeah their inability to stop us on third was pretty bad especially given the distances of some of those conversions).
 
I'm still concerned about our overall D, esp pass coverage. Wide open guys too often. Here's something I'd like some opinions on.....Utah State played 1-4 Colorado State at home and won 34-24. One USU td was a KO return and the other was grabbing the ball out of CSU's hands deep for another, similar to play on Jamie. Love only had 170 yds passing and a pick 6. I'm thinking a 30 pt+ loss to LSU this wknd.

Plus, Duke manhandled VT who moved the ball effectively at B.C. (outgained them IIRC) & basically lost by a td due to 5 TOs.
 
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thatguy2016 said:
ESPN's FPI now ranks Duke ahead of the Deacs and lists Duke as a slight favorite in Winston

WF's odds of winning remaining games are currently as follows:

UL - 69% dudes
FSU 52% (FPI judges FSU the better team, WF gets the home-field bump)
NCSU - also 69%
@VT - 66% (weakest remaining opponent, rated one slot ahead of BC)
@Clem - 5% (doubled our odds from a week ago)
Duke - 49.6%
@Syr - 54%
Click to expand...

Nice.
 
80deacon said:
I'm still concerned about our overall D, esp pass coverage. Wide open guys too often. Here's something I'd like some opinions on.....Utah State played 1-4 Colorado State at home and won 34-24. One USU td was a KO return and the other was grabbing the ball out of CSU's hands deep for another, similar to play on Jamie. Love only had 170 yds passing and a pick 6. I'm thinking a 30 pt+ loss to LSU this wknd.

Plus, Duke manhandled VT who moved the ball effectively at B.C. (outgained them IIRC) & basically lost by a td due to 5 TOs.
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Totally get this line of thinking but I feel you can't always correlate based on how you will play a team and how they did against another team. Case in point.... Florida State won against ULM in double overtime on a missed extra point but has looked solid since. Also our defense held UNC to less points than Clemson did so there's that.
 
80deacon said:
I'm still concerned about our overall D, esp pass coverage. Wide open guys too often. Here's something I'd like some opinions on.....Utah State played 1-4 Colorado State at home and won 34-24. One USU td was a KO return and the other was grabbing the ball out of CSU's hands deep for another, similar to play on Jamie. Love only had 170 yds passing and a pick 6. I'm thinking a 30 pt+ loss to LSU this wknd.

Plus, Duke manhandled VT who moved the ball effectively at B.C. (outgained them IIRC) & basically lost by a td due to 5 TOs.
Click to expand...

The CSU /USU game was in miserable rain, snow , cold conditions. CSU has a terrible defense, and USU would have hung 60 on them easy in dry conditions. That being said, they could lose to LSU by 30+.
 
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