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Republicans for POTUS, 2016 Edition

Trump wouldn't win any states, but his presence would make the GOP spend more time in previously safe bets (IN, MO) and could even make them spend time in KY, AZ, and GA. Jeb/Haley, Kasich/Martinez or Rubio make it more interesting in FL or OH, but more states in play means HRC can still win without either state.
 
Junebug said:
As a conservative, Trump running as a third party does not worry me greatly. Even if he does, it is inevitable that the honeymoon is going to wear off over the next 16 months. I suppose even Nader was a kingmaker of sorts, but I just don't see Trump even garnering Nader's level of support by November 2016.
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I mean even if he only gets 5% of the vote those are people who likely would have voted for the GOP candidate. Trump isn't getting many votes from people who would have otherwise supported the Dem candidate I wouldn't think. 5% is going to doom the GOP since they need as many moderate votes as possible while still shoring up the far right vote which Trump would siphon his votes off of. It's a thin margin with the current electoral map for the GOP as is. Trump as third party would end the GOP's chances in 2016.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Trump wouldn't win any states, but his presence would make the GOP spend more time in previously safe bets (IN, MO) and could even make them spend time in KY, AZ, and GA. Jeb/Haley, Kasich/Martinez or Rubio make it more interesting in FL or OH, but more states in play means HRC can still win without either state.
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SC is pure GOP country but Haley taking down that flag has created plenty of haters for her. GOP might have to actually spend some dough here as the number of blacks, women, Hispanics, & Asians could turn SC blue. If a solid number of these haters stay home (and trust me there are a lot of them) it could happen. If Haley is not on ticket, this is a moot point.
 
Since Trump is dominating the republican side and Hillary is under water on her favorables we need to seriously weigh the pros and cons of a Trump presidency (it seems wrong to even write this).

Pros:
- Incredibly entertaining press conferences and State of the Union speeches. Who wouldn't tune in to see Trump go all Simon Cowell on a reporter or tell some foreign dictator that he has more money in his checking account than their entire country's GDP.
- May singlehandedly end the PC movement (that alone may be worth putting up with Trump).
- Could cause a mass exodus of pretentious actors like Alec Baldwin and Sean Penn to Canada.
- European countries that think "W" used cowboy diplomacy would absolutely hate the crassness of Trump who would constantly berate them.
- Arms deals and Economic treaties should improve as countries like Iran would rightly believe that the Donald is just itching for a reason to lob a couple of nukes at their country. Crazy is scary.
- Should have a good economic period as I imagine trump would be quite pro business
- This board would be insanely interesting as lib posters go insane when they realize Trump is beating Hillary.
- Daily occurrences of exploding heads from RJ types

Cons
- very real chance that the human race ends as Trump starts WW3 in a giant pissing contest with Putin.

Overall it is very difficult to evaluate whether the positives outweigh the negatives.
 
I mean we can banter all we want, but if Trump is in the presidential election as either the GOP nominee or as a third party run, Hillary wins in an epic landslide. That's evident.
 
DeacWatcher said:
SC is pure GOP country but Haley taking down that flag has created plenty of haters for her. GOP might have to actually spend some dough here as the number of blacks, women, Hispanics, & Asians could turn SC blue. If a solid number of these haters stay home (and trust me there are a lot of them) it could happen. If Haley is not on ticket, this is a moot point.
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Carly's not going to be the GOP VP, but because of Hillary, Martinez or Haley may be. The GOP base that hates Latinos and loves the confederate flag will go with Trump. Maybe Kelly Ayotte, Mary Fallon, or Cathy McMorris-Rodgers. Marsha Blackburn is too stupid and Palin would be all in for Trump. There aren't too many choices for non-Tea Patty female VPs. HRC easily wins Latinos and at the very least gets a plurality of female votes. She probably doesn't need Julian Castro, but baiting Trump and Palin would probably be too difficult to refuse.
 
"Tea Patty"

You may have coined a term.
 
When? He just mocked a famous war hero and his numbers went WAY up.
 
knowell said:
- May singlehandedly end the PC movement (that alone may be worth putting up with Trump).
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I know you were trying to be funny with this post overall, but you do realize that a Trump presidency would inevitably lead to the opposite conclusion here, right?
 
Junebug said:
I agree that Trump getting 5% of the vote would be a disaster. I think, however, that Trump's 15 minutes as a viable candidate are almost up. I think his star will fade to a number much smaller than that.
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As much as GOP wants him to go away, that probably not going to happen due to his ego. "The Apprentice" was cancelled after several successful years so that opens him up to other options (like running for Pres).

Because of his dough, he'll be around as long as he wants to be around and he'll make fools out of GOP wannabes (see Graham, Perry, Jindal, etc.)
 
The pushback. Kind of how racial tension has increased under a black president. Resistance to intolerance would increase under an asshole president.
 
PhDeac said:
The pushback. Kind of how racial tension has increased under a black president. Resistance to intolerance would increase under an asshole president.
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We re-elected a racist asshole president in 1916 and racial tensions increased. Always gotta be wary when you're invoking "heighten the contradictions" arguments.
 
Still have to wonder whatever possessed Trump to take up the birther cause and run with it. Destroyed whatever credibility he had left and Obama humiliated him publicly. Trump's so insecure and thin skinned that it had to leave a mark and helped him to decide to run. Trump's torn into so many other wannabes that Palin or Cruz may be his own VP options left.
 
Here is the effect of Trump as a 3rd party according to 538.

enten-datalab-trump3rdparty-3.png
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Still have to wonder whatever possessed Trump to take up the birther cause and run with it. Destroyed whatever credibility he had left and Obama humiliated him publicly. Trump's so insecure and thin skinned that it had to leave a mark and helped him to decide to run. Trump's torn into so many other wannabes that Palin or Cruz may be his own VP options left.
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This is an interest point. As the Republican candidates destroy each other to win the nomination, who is the winner going to pick as a VP?
 
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