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Retired US Soccer / World Cup Thread (RIP)

Ohhh come on Boyd has a shot in the future. I'm all for the call in. The hell do we have to lose at this point?
 
a rando middle aged MLS forward who scores a couple goals in a row to start the season and is a late bloomer who will take the USMNT by storm
 
Ike sighting!

https://twitter.com/#!/juanagudelo17/status/172899332415172609/photo/1

AmZDBtrCMAElUe1.jpg
 
It's a question often considered by U.S. supporters, even if we may be afraid of the answer.

How would the national team fare if it made a permanent move outside of CONCACAF?

This question seems particularly relevant now as the U.S. prepares for a friendly with Italy next Wednesday. We're used to seeing the U.S. play CONCACAF clubs, and it's a nice treat when it plays the world powers, but it might not seem like so much fun if matches with the Azzurri and Spain were the norm, as opposed to the exception.

Forget about the geographic and political restrictions for making such a move possible.What I am asking here is could the United States compete right now in a more competitive region? Fortunately, we can simulate the outcome of such a situation using ESPN's Soccer Power Index.

Because the U.S. is playing Italy next week and Euro 2012 is the next big international tournament, let's take a look at how the Yanks would fare in that competition. We can use SPI's offensive and defensive ratings to estimate the win, lose and draw percentages for each match in the 2012 Euro group stage. Then by simulating every match 10,000 times we can find things like how often each team wins their group, advances to the knockout round, etc.

If we run the 10,000 simulations 16 different times -- replacing each Euro partipant with the U.S. in each instance -- we can find out how realistic expectations should be. So how would the United State do in Euro 2012? Let's take a look.


In the best-case scenario the U.S. would be close to a 50 percent favorite to make it out of the group stage. Its best chance would be replacing Russia in Group A, making its three opponents Greece, the Czech Republic and the host country, Poland. In that situation, the Yanks win the group 18 percent of the time and qualify for the knockout round in 42 percent of sims.

The worst situation would be replacing Denmark in the group of death with Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands. The U.S. would only be given a 5 percent chance of surviving in that situation. Of course, few teams would do much better, as Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands are all in the top five of the SPI rankings, yet one of them isn't going to make it out of the group stage in Euro 2012.

On average, the U.S. would win its group in 8 percent of simulations and advance to the knockout stage 23 percent of the time. Not exactly the numbers U.S. fans are looking for, but remember that the field for Euro 2012 is arguably tougher than the World Cup.

But that is Europe. What about South America?

Going south
According to SPI, the U.S. would have a heck of a time qualifying for the World Cup if it played in CONMEBOL.

Currently CONMEBOL is in the middle of its World Cup qualifying process. With Brazil hosting the 2014 World Cup and thus automatically qualifying, that leaves nine teams competing for South America's four automatic spots plus one inter-confederation playoff spot against the fifth-place country from Asia. To see how the U.S. would do in this tournament, let's reset the competition to the beginning and add the Yanks as a 10th team. The format will remain the same with each country playing a home-and-away against the other nine.

Based on the result of 10,000 simulations, the U.S. would have to lower expectations here as well (see table). In roughly six out of seven simulations it fails to finish in the top four and is eliminated altogether in more than three out of four. The only teams it would be projected to finish better than are Peru and Bolivia, who combined have qualified for one World Cup in past 30 years. And remember, this is without Brazil, arguably South America's best team.

So while moving to a superior confederation might help the U.S. in the long term in terms of stiffer competition, fans would need to temper their hopes for the type of success they have become accustomed to in CONCACAF. Those rooting for the Yanks should be happy their road to World Cup currently runs through Jamaica and Costa Rica, as opposed to France and Argentina.

Albert Larcada is an Analytics Specialist in ESPN's Stats and Information group. He does advanced statistical research with the intention of better modeling and forecasting sporting events and leagues. Among other analytics projects he maintains, advances, and writes about ESPN's successful Soccer Power Index (SPI) algorithm.
 
The US would be insane to leave CONCACAF. I've never seen anybody even suggest that. What a silly exercise.
 
So basically all that part about South America says is that their ranking is below 7 of the CONMEBOL teams. At least the Euro part, while dumb, has some grouping variables to it.
 
*Argentina (created in 1893, joined CONMEBOL in 1916)
*Bolivia (created in 1925, joined CONMEBOL in 1926)
*Brazil (created in 1914, joined CONMEBOL in 1916)
*Chile (created in 1895, joined CONMEBOL in 1916)
*Colombia (created in 1924, joined CONMEBOL in 1936)
*Ecuador (created in 1925, joined CONMEBOL in 1927)
*Paraguay (created in 1906, joined CONMEBOL in 1921)
*Peru(created in 1922, joined CONMEBOL in 1925)
*Uruguay (created in 1899, joined CONMEBOL in 1916)
*Venezuela (created in 1926, joined CONMEBOL in 1952)


I think USA finishes 4th in that group. Possibly 5th
 
U-23 USMNT lineup vs SA Scorpions:

4-3-3 Johnson; Sarkodie, Opara, Valentin, Villafana; Kitchen, Okugo, Duka; Adu, Bunbury, Shea
 
Screamindemon3 said:
*Argentina (created in 1893, joined CONMEBOL in 1916)
*Bolivia (created in 1925, joined CONMEBOL in 1926)
*Brazil (created in 1914, joined CONMEBOL in 1916)
*Chile (created in 1895, joined CONMEBOL in 1916)
*Colombia (created in 1924, joined CONMEBOL in 1936)
*Ecuador (created in 1925, joined CONMEBOL in 1927)
*Paraguay (created in 1906, joined CONMEBOL in 1921)
*Peru(created in 1922, joined CONMEBOL in 1925)
*Uruguay (created in 1899, joined CONMEBOL in 1916)
*Venezuela (created in 1926, joined CONMEBOL in 1952)


I think USA finishes 4th in that group. Possibly 5th
Click to expand...

On paper you are probably right. But it might prove harder in practice. The rub is how difficult some of the road games can be. Bogota is at 8,000 feet. Quito I think is higher and La Paz is definitely higher. Never mind how difficult the crowds can be in most of those countries. In turn, we don't exactly offer and of those teams a tough place to play - although we could shove winter games in places like Chicago and Columbus - which would be an advantage.
 
5th or 6th for the US down in CONMEBOL, IMO. Hopefully (and most likely) we will never have to find out.

I would like for us to take a full strength side to a Copa America, tho. That would be sweet.
 
DeacMan said:
On paper you are probably right. But it might prove harder in practice. The rub is how difficult some of the road games can be. Bogota is at 8,000 feet. Quito I think is higher and La Paz is definitely higher. Never mind how difficult the crowds can be in most of those countries. In turn, we don't exactly offer and of those teams a tough place to play - although we could shove winter games in places like Chicago and Columbus - which would be an advantage.
Click to expand...

Quito is over 9,000 and La Paz is over 12,000. Peru can play in Cusco as well, which is over 11,000. I can't emphasis how difficult it is to do anything at that elevation the first couple of days you're there. Our hostel put together a team to play some kids in La Paz at a local field. We were able to pass it around them for about 5 minutes before becoming completely winded. I'd never felt that before. The Bolivian kids were running circles around us while we decided to sit down for a beer.

Talent wise I think we'd probably be somewhere around 4th or 5th over the past 10 years. But I agree that qualifying would be extremely difficult. Half of those away matches are as tough or tougher than Estadio Azteca.
 
@ussoccer_ynt: Underway in Dallas. U-23 #USMNT with the ball early as Adu crosses for Bunbury and the first chance.

@ussoccer_ynt: U-23s have the ball for long stretches...@SAScorpions with their first shot from a free kick. Deflected. #USMNT 0, SAS 0 - 15 min

@ussoccer_ynt: Big save from @SAScorpions keeper on Bunbury to keep it 0-0. Loose ball which 'Keeper then boots ball into parking lot.

@ussoccer_ynt: Brek Shea with a great effort from 25 yards. Off the crossbar! Still U-23 #USMNT 0, @SAScorpions 0 - 33 min

@ussoccer_ynt: Adu free kick falls to Sarkodie at the edge of the area. His shot skims wide right. U-23 #USMNT 0, SAS 0 - 40 min
 
@ussoccer_ynt: Two changes at halftime, Agudelo comes on for Bunbury. And Hamid for Johnson. Save by Hamid to start the half.

@ussoccer_ynt: At the other end Adu tests the keeper. Then Agudelo goes close from the resulting corner.

@ussoccer_ynt: Brek Shea opens the scoring. Agudelo springs the offside trap and he squares for Shea to power home w his first touch and make it 1-0!
 
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