I thought the ACC would break down into three 5-team tiers this year: Strong NCAA Teams (Duke, Syracuse, UVA, UNC, Notre Dame); NCAA Bubble Teams (Pitt, Maryland, BC, GT, FSU); and Bad Teams (WF, NCSU, Miami, Clemson, VPI).
Hairston and Grant being kicked out scuttled two of the teams in the top tier. UVA has underachieved compared to what I expected, but seems to be getting it together. Duke is also underachieving, but I'm not ready to count them out. Syracuse is outperforming already-high expectations.
In the mid-tier, Pitt and FSU are clearly overachieving, though FSU has enough (very close) losses that I wouldn't consider them a strong NCAA team despite their top-20 Pomeroy rating. Seth Allen's injury has been a major setback for UMD; we'll see if they can get things going as they work him back in the line-up. GT and especially BC have been inexcusably bad.
The bottom tier is significantly stronger than I thought, despite VPI being just as God-awful as I imagined. Clemson is far exceeding expectations, more than any other team on the list, and Miami also is much better than I thought. State too has overachieved, albeit not by as much as the other two.
Of course, what that leaves you with is more of a two-tier division between the haves and the have-nots, with the have-nots ranging from, "Maybe they'll sneak into the NIT" to "Virginia Tech," and not a whole lot of in-between. Lot more blow-outs than I would have expected thus far in the season.