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Russia: Doomed or Not Doomed? Discuss.

Deacon923

Deacon923

Scooter Banks
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/barack-obama-vladimir-putin-russian-economy-113626.html

That brings us to the economic catch-22. Remember, the point of raising rates was to prop up the ruble so Russian companies wouldn't default on their dollar debts. But sacrificing the Russian economy to try to save the Russian currency means that those companies will lose their customers, and default anyways. This cycle of doom means even fewer dollars will come into Russia, and there'll be even less demand for rubles — and its price will start falling again. So it doesn't matter whether Russia raises rates to defend the ruble or not. It will keep declining, and the economy will keep collapsing.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/16/checkmate-putin-russias-economy-is-stuck-in-a-catch-22/

This is probably the most comprehensive analysis (as of 12/17), the stuff above is mainly commentary. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30492505

If vad's around I'm curious about how this looks from the Osterreich.


ETA: The Economist's view.
 
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at first i read it as 'domed'

under-the-dome21.jpg
 
The freefall of the ruble is pretty crazy.

Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League on the verge of financial ruin

When it began in 2008, the Kontinental Hockey League was envisioned as President Vladimir Putin’s ambitious challenge to the NHL, a bid to keep Russian players in Russia by paying them exorbitant sums out of oil coffers.

Now, its survival – especially of its most vulnerable teams – may be at stake.

With oil prices dropping, Western sanctions increasing and the ruble cratering, sponsors have been forced to pull funding to a lot of KHL teams; as a result, many players are getting paid late or not getting paid at all.
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lol at the tag.

eta: the atlantic one.
 
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Deacon923 said:
Seriously. That and Saudi Arabia's determination to keep pumping to try and drive some frackers out of business. The Russian economy is a one-trick pony.
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Yep. North American racking started this all and now the Saudi's price war is sinking Putin's smug ass.

COO COO I LOVE IT

5bb82be79069c725bb7ade984fffa2d0.jpg
 
Good time to make nice with one of their traditional allies.
 
sailordeac said:
I hope not. The economies of Russia and Europe are tied to each other in many ways.
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Which has made them hesitant to act against Russia's aggressions. Their rebels shot down a plane this year. Not sure if people remember than.
 
sailordeac said:
I hope not. The economies of Russia and Europe are tied to each other in many ways.
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Germany in particular is very exposed to the Russian market, and as Germany goes - so goes the rest of Europe. Russia going into the tank 1998 style is in absolutely nobody's interest.
 
PhDeac said:
Which has made them hesitant to act against Russia's aggressions. Their rebels shot down a plane this year. Not sure if people remember than.
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Aggressions? You do realize that the current borders of Ukraine were arbitrarily set during the Soviet era and perhaps deliberately ignored the nationalities? The population of the areas where the conflict is taking place is predominantly Russian and not Ukranian. Do you really think some half-informed cynical politicians in Washington should be telling people who have Russian culture, language and heritage going back hundreds of years that they should live in Ukraine because some even more cynical Soviet era dictators drew the boundaries of Ukraine where they did?

Actually, in this matter the main thing that matters in Washington is who gets to exploit the potential energy resources in Ukraine. And the US is very aggressively trying to get that business.

The Cold War is over. It's time to realize that Russia is not the Soviet Union, and that Russia does have legitimate national and national security interests.
 
Does that justify shooting down a plane full of innocent people?
 
sailordeac said:
Aggressions? You do realize that the current borders of Ukraine were arbitrarily set during the Soviet era and perhaps deliberately ignored the nationalities? The population of the areas where the conflict is taking place is predominantly Russian and not Ukranian. Do you really think some half-informed cynical politicians in Washington should be telling people who have Russian culture, language and heritage going back hundreds of years that they should live in Ukraine because some even more cynical Soviet era dictators drew the boundaries of Ukraine where they did?

Actually, in this matter the main thing that matters in Washington is who gets to exploit the potential energy resources in Ukraine. And the US is very aggressively trying to get that business.

The Cold War is over. It's time to realize that Russia is not the Soviet Union, and that Russia does have legitimate national and national security interests.
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hey, we already have vlad around here. we don't need another commie sympathizer
 
sailordeac said:
Aggressions? You do realize that the current borders of Ukraine were arbitrarily set during the Soviet era and perhaps deliberately ignored the nationalities? The population of the areas where the conflict is taking place is predominantly Russian and not Ukranian. Do you really think some half-informed cynical politicians in Washington should be telling people who have Russian culture, language and heritage going back hundreds of years that they should live in Ukraine because some even more cynical Soviet era dictators drew the boundaries of Ukraine where they did?

Actually, in this matter the main thing that matters in Washington is who gets to exploit the potential energy resources in Ukraine. And the US is very aggressively trying to get that business.

The Cold War is over. It's time to realize that Russia is not the Soviet Union, and that Russia does have legitimate national and national security interests.
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Russia signed the Budapest treaty and guaranteed the sovereignty of the Ukrainian borders in exchange for their nuclear disarmament.

If you think that Putin's returning 20 years later and snatching territory isn't a horribly destabilizing move in terms of the broader globe...

I'm fully sympathetic to the fucked up cultural issues in Ukraine, but Putin's Russia made this situation far worse, and not just in that region.
 
sailordeac said:
Aggressions? You do realize that the current borders of Ukraine were arbitrarily set during the Soviet era and perhaps deliberately ignored the nationalities? The population of the areas where the conflict is taking place is predominantly Russian and not Ukranian. Do you really think some half-informed cynical politicians in Washington should be telling people who have Russian culture, language and heritage going back hundreds of years that they should live in Ukraine because some even more cynical Soviet era dictators drew the boundaries of Ukraine where they did?

Actually, in this matter the main thing that matters in Washington is who gets to exploit the potential energy resources in Ukraine. And the US is very aggressively trying to get that business.

The Cold War is over. It's time to realize that Russia is not the Soviet Union, and that Russia does have legitimate national and national security interests.
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How do you feel about Israel?
 
Speaking of (and not trying to derail) I met a guy who is from Israel and works for a media company that criticizes other media outlets for their "biased" coverage of the Middle East. Couldn't get out of that conversation fast enough.
 
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