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SayHeyDeac's Thread For Serious Political Discourse Only--Trolls Need Not Apply

Seems like there's still a bit of volatility in the numbers, thanks to third party candidates and undecideds. Depending on what happens at the next two debates, you may see Hillary max out at a 6% national lead or draw down to 1-2% and ultimately win in the area of 48%-45% (with 6% to Johnson).

The EC firewall looked dicey a few weeks ago after Hillary's bad few cycles, but seems to have stabilized for her. At this point, she just needs to concentrate on GOTV and run out the clock.
 
CantStandYa said:
Seems like there's still a bit of volatility in the numbers, thanks to third party candidates and undecideds. Depending on what happens at the next two debates, you may see Hillary max out at a 6% national lead or draw down to 1-2% and ultimately win in the area of 48%-45% (with 6% to Johnson).

The EC firewall looked dicey a few weeks ago after Hillary's bad few cycles, but seems to have stabilized for her. At this point, she just needs to concentrate on GOTV and run out the clock.
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Both 538 and Princeton models are starting to converge around 315-317 EVs. There's still a wide range of possible outcomes, but both have major peaks between 340 to 360. Trump's all in on FL, PA, OH, and NC and he can't get to 270 via small states. It's a 3 to 4 point race now, but moves out to 5 or 6 if he fucks up the next debate too. If that happens, all bets are off on the last debate. Victory percentage will climb, EV distribution will become more normalized, and the expected EV projections will increase in both models.
 
ChrisL68 said:
I told the Bobs that he peaked, but they were too excited yanking each other's wangs to listen. Now they are blaming the media. Not that fact that Donald Trump is the worst presidential candidate of our lifetime by a wide margin.
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Isn't this the third time Trump has peaked to get to even during a time Hillary was largely out of the public eye? GOP convention, pneumonia and debate prep, and sometime over the summer I think.
 
PhDeac said:
Isn't this the third time Trump has peaked to get to even during a time Hillary was largely out of the public eye? GOP convention, pneumonia and debate prep, and sometime over the summer I think.
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Think he had a spike during the email decision.
 
Trump led the GOP field from August until he clinched, but has never led Hilary. 538 went live on June 8 and he's only gotten close twice. 14M 'Pubs eagerly supported Trump in the primaries and he's going to lose to a despised crappy candidate. Good luck putting the band back together after this debacle.
 
We're all being lulled into a false sense of security. think Trump is going to even out his doses and give a strong debate performance on Sunday.

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I think there's no putting the genie back in the bottle, the media has total turned on Trump, as rightful they should. I can see him getting a bump to a more respectable EC total but to actually win he is going to need Hillary to fuck up bad again.
 
If Trumps tax returns are even the least bit defendable, he should release them right before the debate before Hillary's team has time to react to them.

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Well, the bar is now at "don't mention Rosie O'Donnell," so I think he'll at least get a bump out of the next debate. The media also needs a story to tell for the next four and a half weeks.
 
Beyond releasing his taxes before Hillary can respond, I think Trump should apologize to Rosie and Machado, hit the female friendly talking points about paid maternity leave from the Ivana commercials, and go after Hillary for the "deplorables" comment. He should also try not to smirk for 90 minutes.

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Hillary really gave him a gift with that dumbass "deplorables" comment. Trump should pound that shit into the dirt like Kaine did the racist commentary.

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Neither of these dummies seem to understand the sports concept of "bulletin board material".

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You realize the best part of debate 2 is it's town hall, you have no idea what half the questions are going to be, you are walking around interacting with the audience as well.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
If Trumps tax returns are even the least bit defendable, he should release them right before the debate before Hillary's team has time to react to them.

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Pence didn't go after the server hard enough last night. Reading between the lines, they know the tax returns are a transperancy problem and they're never being released. Everybody knows he wrote off a ton of losses, so there still have to be problems. Gotta be the Russian ties since Manafort quietly went poof without an explanation.

Hillary has played the campaign safely, so she won't go for a KO in the next debate. Needs to appear more likable and relatable and hard to bait and taunt in a town hall format. Won't go after the taxes or loss, but probably goes after little guys who Trump stiffed/squeezed. Trump was terrible in the debate, but the days long Twitter rant is what killed him. She'll drop a Machado style bomb late.

Hillary's verbally clumsy, but she handled the first debate especially well. Kaine was too eager to shoot his wad early and should have been for patient. Calmed down later, but still never completely got under Pence's skin.

Pence wore down a little bit and lied out his ass about Trump and his own statements. Should run that ad in IA, WI, and MI. Doubt they see Pence as a 2020 threat, but they'd love a 2020 campaign based on social issues. Kaine was wise to talk about his faith and the death penalty. Pence overplayed his hand on abortion, but wisely steered clear of LGBT issues. Energizing millennial turnout is far more problematic for Trump than social conservative turnout.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
You realize the best part of debate 2 is it's town hall, you have no idea what half the questions are going to be, you are walking around interacting with the audience as well.
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Seems like town hall is the best format for HRC and the worst for Trump, but who knows at this point.

Meanwhile, Bill Weld has realized that Gary Johnson might be an imbecile and is essentially throwing in the towel. This election keeps getting weirder.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Beyond releasing his taxes before Hillary can respond, I think Trump should apologize to Rosie and Machado, hit the female friendly talking points about paid maternity leave from the Ivana commercials, and go after Hillary for the "deplorables" comment. He should also try not to smirk for 90 minutes.

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There are too many of them and it's too late. I doubt anyone who hasn't given him a pass thus far would believe him.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Beyond releasing his taxes before Hillary can respond, I think Trump should apologize to Rosie and Machado, hit the female friendly talking points about paid maternity leave from the Ivana commercials, and go after Hillary for the "deplorables" comment. He should also try not to smirk for 90 minutes.

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Why isn't Ivanka out on the stump for her dad? She's by far his best advocate and is way smarter than Gas Chamber Boy and the other chucklehead. Tiffany's mailing in her mom's taxes and Baron's hacking the cyber.

Deplorables was a GOTV fuck up, but Hillary can easily deflect it by saying she greatly overstated it, pointing out the OWG who cold cocked a guy (and Trump offered to pay legal fees) or the guy who knocked over a 70 year old women and her oxygen tank, and then reprise any number of Trump's deplorable moments.
 
538 currently has Clinton with a 63% chance of winning FL, a 59% chance of winning NC, an 80% of winning PA, and a 52% chance of winning Ohio (!). If you look at 538 tracking history, Trump peaked on July 30th, right after his Convention, with 50.1% chance of winning the presidency. The best he has done since was 45% chance of winning after Hillary disappeared for debate prep and then nearly collapsed in public due to pneumonia.
 
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