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Stay John Collins!

mercurydime said:
Why does *everything* have to be about money? I agree it's a prime motivator, but we'd all find some agreement in the premise that money can't buy every thing.

I get the potential injury contingency, but is that the norm by which these type situations are consistently judged? Is that the single most important consideration?

Per the discussion here, you'd think so.
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It's not just money. This year he's likely to be drafted by a team like Miami, Atlanta, Memphis or another playoff team. They have better coaching and management.

If returns and rises a bit in the draft, he'll likely get into the range of teams like Sacramento, Denver, Knicks, etc. These teams are messes and harm basically every player they draft.

It's about money and improving.
 
CantStandYa said:
There are literally explicit limits to how much players can formally work on their game in college.
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Yeah not really. Student managers can rebound an infinite amount of hours. Coaching staff can work 20 hours / week. During the off-season coaches can give him something to work on and then have student managers rebound and run the player through drills as long as the player wants. The hours limit is really a false reality. When you add in free throw shooting, ball handling, weight room - all of which can easily be done individually, it pretty much is a non-existent rule.

The only time the rule has any real effect is during the season before the game,es start. That is when coaches would like to spend more time in practice with the whole team and are somewhat limited by the 20 hr rule, and that is probability a good thing for the young men.


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My personally opinion.is that JC has a long and productive NBA career ahead of him regardless of the year he enters the league. The safe route is to go now and guarantee that you will be a millionaire. But it wouldn't shock me to see him stay 1 more year. I don't see his game as that regress-able. If he CA,e back I would fully expect him to average 20/10 and garner more attention for himself. I think there is a better chance he would raise his stock and end up with a better draft position. In he end JC has already coined it right. He has to decide between sure money, and basketball legacy.

There are reasons to stay and to go. I don't feel the choice is as easy as some of the posters here seem to think it is. I expect him to go, but if I were in his shoes I would be tempted to stay and see how good my team could be.

As a fan I don't begrudge his decision either way. In JC's situation it makes complete sense for him to go now and grab the cash. As a wake forest grad I sure would love for him to stick one more year and watch us open the year in the top 25.

For those of you that see this as a complete no brainer I want you to think about this: how much money would you pay to go back to college for one year? How about as a 20 year old stud basketball player? A lot of people on these boards make a lot of money, and I would guess a good many of them would fork over a ton of it to do what JC has an opportunity to do. Of course the come back is 'yeah, but you could be a 20 year old millionaire as well...' but once you are a pro you are a pro. Life changes. Responsibilities happen. If college wasn't more fun than pretty much any other phase in life they wouldn't keep making movies about it.

It will be interesting to see what he does. I certainly wish him the best either way.


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Collins takes the bait on every pump fake. No discipline at all on defense. And Wake as a team plays terrible help defense. If the ball gets behind a defender, nobody is there to help. It's absolutely poor defensive coaching. But who is going to coach defense and be credible? Manning? Not much of a defensive player in his day. Childress? never played defense once in his life.
 
To me, the fact that Collins is going for the Larry Bird short shorts look exposes the fact that he has bird legs - no base. So he can't hold his position on defense, and therefore has to guard with his arms and hands and by trying to block shots. I don't know if that will be something that will change as he gets older.
 
mercurydime said:
Why does *everything* have to be about money? I agree it's a prime motivator, but we'd all find some agreement in the premise that money can't buy every thing.

I get the potential injury contingency, but is that the norm by which these type situations are consistently judged? Is that the single most important consideration?

Per the discussion here, you'd think so.
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For the sake of argument, let's ignore the risk of injury. Just imagine being 20 years old and offered that much money. With the wrong mindset, you could put an immense amount of pressure on yourself the following season by staying. Every shot you miss you could be counting dollars in your head and wondering "what if". Every time the coach yells at you, you could think "Screw this, I could have gone to the NBA. Why didn't I?" or "whatever, I'll be gone next year anyway." I'm not saying JC is any of these things, but I know at 20 there is no way I would have been mature enough to look past the million dollar bird in the hand. If you're going to pass up a guaranteed first round pick (assuming he is a guaranteed first round pick), then you have got be very mature mentally and be ready to put in a ton of work to guarantee yourself that you didn't make the wrong decision when droughts or down times inevitably strike.
 
guitardeac said:
To me, the fact that Collins is going for the Larry Bird short shorts look exposes the fact that he has bird legs - no base. So he can't hold his position on defense, and therefore has to guard with his arms and hands and by trying to block shots. I don't know if that will be something that will change as he gets older.
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This is a weird post.
 
RJKarl said:
It's not just money. This year he's likely to be drafted by a team like Miami, Atlanta, Memphis or another playoff team. They have better coaching and management.

If returns and rises a bit in the draft, he'll likely get into the range of teams like Sacramento, Denver, Knicks, etc. These teams are messes and harm basically every player they draft.

It's about money and improving.
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So players should go early so they get drafted lower? I understand what you are saying but I think it would be hard to convince someone that they want to be drafted lower.
 
I do agree that JC is not very strong in his lower body. Probably has more to do with being 19 years old than anything.
 
He's gotta go pro man. Just don't see the benefit outweighing the cost at this point. He can learn what he needs to learn at the pro level when it comes to playing, ahem, defense. He will get stronger as he matures and adds weight gradually. Why put pressure on yourself to add 15-20 during the off-season just for the hope of pushing your team into the Top 25? But also risking injury and diminished performance -- teams will start double-teaming him incessantly -- and he's likely to end up right where he is now, a borderline lottery pick, if he doesn't average 20+ \ 11 \ 2.

He has all the potential in the world to develop into not only a versatile 4 with range extending to the top of the key (think Al Horford early in his career) at the pro level, but unlike Al bring JC already brings a variegated low-post repertoire of moves, most notably an impossible-to-stop quick turnaround jump-hook. He will only get better in the low post and has the chance to become dominant in that aspect of the game if he wants to, as long as the team who drafts him doesn't force him into the lineup playing more minutes than his young body can handle.

Admittedly he will take a bit longer to develop his strength and dominance in the post via the NBA, but he can also be used successfully off the bench in a "tweener" 4/5 hybrid role depending on match-ups. Especially if drafted in the 15-20 range by a better team who won't be so wholly dependent on his immediate emergence as a stud. But I would hate to see him get dinged and worse yet, seriously injured in a way that will hinder the explosiveness that gives him a distinct advantage over most bigs he will face in the interior post. Get the guaranteed money and let your new NBA team take on the responsibility rounding out your development.

Who knows though, he may really love college and is still only 19.5 y/o. But that makes his upside and high-ceiling potential that much more attractive to NBA GM's. I really think he'll find his way into the back end of the lottery after teams see him in private workouts, camps, etc, but selfishly I hope he slips to a team like Atlanta or Miami.
 
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scooter84 said:
So players should go early so they get drafted lower? I understand what you are saying but I think it would be hard to convince someone that they want to be drafted lower.
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No it's not. If the difference is made up by being able to play an extra year, the incentive of being drafter higher evaporates. If the choice is to go to a stable franchise versus a joke, the incentive of being drafted higher isn't enticing. Remember, you are stuck with the that drafts you for the 1/3 to 1/2 of your career.
 
RJKarl said:
No it's not. If the difference is made up by being able to play an extra year, the incentive of being drafter higher evaporates. If the choice is to go to a stable franchise versus a joke, the incentive of being drafted higher isn't enticing. Remember, you are stuck with the that drafts you for the 1/3 to 1/2 of your career.
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I think you're making a bigger deal out of the team that picks him than it is. That really shouldn't be a consideration. No player should want to be picked further down the draft board, just so they can go to a better team.

Also, based on this year's results, going to LA, NY, or Philly, would be pretty awesome, regardless of the current state of the franchises.
 
BamaDeac said:
First, I am addressing not just PhDeac but KitchinDeac comments as well.

Yeah, 4 years after his rookie deal, then he can start making the big $$$$. Plus you have to assume that he makes it in the NBA to deserve a big deal on his 2nd contract. Look at Johnson and Teague who were drafted the same year 16th and 19th. Both could have benefited from staying at least another season. Now, Johnson is a bust and only making $2.5 million the next few seasons which is less than what a lottery pick makes; where as, Teague is decent starter, made 1 All-Star Game, and is now making $8 million a season. What happens if Collins is bust similar to Johnson (I hope he doesn't)? Then that extra $6-$10 million from his rookie deal becomes much more attractive.

If you were referring to the 3rd & 4th year team options, then that can go as high as 120% to the base salary in his draft slot. Kyrie Irving only made a little over $7 million in his 4th year in the league after the team option was picked up for the 2014-2015 season, and he was the #1 overall pick. http://www.spotrac.com/nba/cleveland-cavaliers/kyrie-irving-8051/cash-earnings/

My point was only to show how much money Collins would make if he was drafted in the 14-26 range this year compared to what he could possibly make if he stayed 1 more year, improved his draft stock, and was drafted next year in the 4-14 range because the dollar amount of NBA Rookie Contracts are already predetermined according to the draft pick. I wasn't trying to get into debates about hypothetical situations that could occur to him once he is in the NBA.
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No way is Johnson a bust. For comparison, here are the other 16th picks since 2000. JJ is better than average.

2016 Guerschon Yabusele
2015 Terry Rozier
2014 Jusuf Nurkic
2013 Lucas Nogueira
2012 Royce White
2011 Nikola Vucevic
2010 Luke Babbitt
2009 James Johnson
2008 Marreese Speights
2007 Nick Young
2006 Rodney Carney
2005 Joey Graham
2004 Kirk Snyder
2003 Troy Bell
2002 Jiri Welsch
2001 Kirk Haston
2000 Hidayet Turkoglu
 
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KitchinDeac said:
No way is Johnson a bust. For comparison, here are the other 16th picks since 2000. JJ is better than average.

2016 Guerschon Yabusele
2015 Terry Rozier
2014 Jusuf Nurkic
2013 Lucas Nogueira
2012 Royce White
2011 Nikola Vucevic
2010 Luke Babbitt
2009 James Johnson
2008 Marreese Speights
2007 Nick Young
2006 Rodney Carney
2005 Joey Graham
2004 Kirk Snyder
2003 Troy Bell
2002 Jiri Welsch
2001 Kirk Haston
2000 Hidayet Turkoglu
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Woof. That list is a who's who of nobodies.
 
I wonder what the endorsement money difference is from pick to pick.
 
It could be argued that other than Hedo and Vucevic, JJ is the best of them. Swaggy has had some moments, but he has basically been a sideshow.
 
Nurkic will probably turn in a nice career too.
 
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