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Stock Market Crash

WakeForestRanger said:
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It took well over a year after the 1929 Stock Market Crash for the Great Depression to fully start settling across the nation. The coronavirus has already led to a massive crash, and may lead us into a Depression within a few months. If that happens, Trump will go from Dear Leader to Herbert Hoover faster than anyone could have imagined. Hoovervilles = Trump Towns.
 
Now that we know Burr may have triggered a massive sell off, Republicans can't really argue the stock market crash was an unavoidable.
 
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The current republican bill in the Senate is also incredibly idiotic, and it will truly do nothing to lessen the crisis. Now isn’t the time to worry about means testing any individual bailout. We have to start paying people to stay home in order to stop the virus and get people back to normal. You can tax any high income earning next year to re-coup the payment, so trying to limit it now is dumb and disruptive to the current need. I truly fear this is about to destroy the economy worse than anyone imagines, and no one in government seems to be taking the economic collapse seriously.
 
dcnelso said:
The current republican bill in the Senate is also incredibly idiotic, and it will truly do nothing to lessen the crisis. Now isn’t the time to worry about means testing any individual bailout. We have to start paying people to stay home in order to stop the virus and get people back to normal. You can tax any high income earning next year to re-coup the payment, so trying to limit it now is dumb and disruptive to the current need. I truly fear this is about to destroy the economy worse than anyone imagines, and no one in government seems to be taking the economic collapse seriously.
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Largely because so many of them are not likely to suffer from such a collapse, at least not extensively or catastrophically. And I would include some Democrats in that as well as Republicans. The gap between the haves and have-nots has been growing for decades, now it's about to become a yawning chasm for all to see. Having said that, this is all similar to the response of Hoover and the GOP to the 1929 Stock Market Crash and Depression. They were generally slow to respond, largely because they couldn't conceive that such a collapse was possible given the booming (but uneven) 20s economy, and their own economic philosophy and comfortable financial status. It cost them dearly politically, but from what I've read many of them never seemed to truly grasp what had happened to the economy or how things had changed in the country. It was like they remained stuck mentally in the past while the rest of the nation changed and moved forward under the New Deal and FDR voting coalition.
 
So how likely is it now that this all ends in total societal and economic collapse?
 
Unfortunately, I get the sense that this is highly likely. Trump’s administration is a bunch of sycophants who aren’t capable of leadership in this type of environment, and we just seem to be slowly dripping to a conclusion that is going to shut down the economy without a backstop.

States are doing the job that the federal government isn’t, but without a fiscal backstop and bailout, it’s not fair or rational to cause every business to shut down. Bill Ackman was absolutely correct that we are headed to hell.
 
the best hope seems to be that enough states go hard now, forcing all other states, then the federal government to follow suit, after which the feds get forced into economic action
 
I gotta stop reading the boards before bedtime. Someone hold me and tell me it’s all gonna be ok.
 
dcnelso said:
Unfortunately, I get the sense that this is highly likely. Trump’s administration is a bunch of sycophants who aren’t capable of leadership in this type of environment, and we just seem to be slowly dripping to a conclusion that is going to shut down the economy without a backstop.

States are doing the job that the federal government isn’t, but without a fiscal backstop and bailout, it’s not fair or rational to cause every business to shut down. Bill Ackman was absolutely correct that we are headed to hell.
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It's too bad that a great many people didn't warn everyone back in 2016 that Trump was utterly incapable of facing a major crisis and effectively leading us through it. I mean, Trump's failures of leadership in this situation have just been so surprising to everyone, I'm sure.
 
mako1331 said:
I gotta stop reading the boards before bedtime. Someone hold me and tell me it’s all gonna be ok.
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It's gonna be ok- holy cow people, pull it together! Maybe we'll get a couple hundred k dead (so a 3x bad flu), the gov't is throwing trillions at it, they'll start pulling back restrictions in a month or two, therapeutics will be along during the summer, demand is so pent up it will absolutely be bonkers when people start getting out again, people will get hired back and onwards we go! For crap's sake, if this were something as deadly as Ebola and it was spreading everywhere, then ok, let's freak out, but jeez we'll get through this for crap's sake
 
therapeutics is the hope at this point. Shit is going to get ugly when it hits all states at once and the feds help out the red states and not the blue states.
 
I get the WHY for means testing the stimulus checks, but I think it could also cause delays in getting the money to people who really need it.

The income limit being set at 75k or 100k, with the expectation that people making above that should be able to withstand a cash crunch right now, is in stark contrast with the bailout of companies that used all their excess cash to do stock buybacks and payout huge bonuses, etc.

I like the one time 401k withdrawal without penalty as a way for some people to access cash.
 
If you *need* to means test this stuff, do it on the back end. Give everyone the checks now, tax it back from the rich folks next year.
 
Can someone explain why it makes more sense to means test now instead of just cutting checks and recouping on the back end either through next year’s tax filing or some other mechanism? I’d imagine the regulatory process of ascertaining exact amounts based on prior filings would be both expensive and slow right?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Can someone explain why it makes more sense to means test now instead of just cutting checks and recouping on the back end either through next year’s tax filing or some other mechanism? I’d imagine the regulatory process of ascertaining exact amounts based on prior filings would be both expensive and slow right?
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Because it allows people to get on their pulpit and rail against the more well off for at least another week?
 
Why not just cut everyone a check, announce those earning above $x will be heavily taxed on it, but that if they donate it before 5/31 they can exclude it from earnings?

so checks could go out quickly and I could immediately donate it to a local charity that in my view needs the money urgently
 
thatguy2016 said:
Why not just cut everyone a check, announce those earning above $x will be heavily taxed on it, but that if they donate it before 5/31 they can exclude it from earnings?

so checks could go out quickly and I could immediately donate it to a local charity that in my view needs the money urgently
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I also think it’s not a terrible idea to short term expand the limits of what is deductible. I say this as a career nonprofit professional. If you want to donate your check to your housekeeper, daycare teacher, etc. why funnel it through overhead of a charity?
 
Or make your Y membership dues tax deductible while the Y is closed.
 
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