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Stock Market Crash

MichDeac25 said:
Even if that is the case, you would think DEMAND would be impacted.
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Yeah, but the Red Lobsters of the world can handle it. You can make an argument that Best Buy could fall because big box electronics retailers have been on the brink for awhile, but I doubt this is what will take down the major chains.

It would be a major shock to the system if people who bought Carnival for "cheap" had to stomach the bottom falling out of the cruise line industry.
 
Liquid Karma said:
Purely anecdotal, but I cancelled a cruise with Carnival a few weeks back and was told my refund would hit my card in 4-6 weeks. Today, when Carnival finally announced a cancellation of all cruises until mod May, they voided all the refunds from the prior few weeks and are requiring customers to submit new requests for a 100% refund OR 100% credit towards a future cruise plus a healthy bonus credit.

The kicker - the cash refunds will take 90 days to process.

Carnival has no cash to pay refunds right now, and no expected cash flow for the next 6 weeks.

They will be bankrupt within a month.
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The government is giving them billions. They'll be OK. Especially since Trump is chummy with the CEO.
 
PhDeac said:
Do you think that's going to be the case for big businesses though? Local restaurants, small retailers will go out of business and the chains will pick up the slack. Cruise lines and airlines are too big to fail.
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Some of the big retailers were already stressed - see Macy's furloughing 125K workers. I worry even businesses like that collapse and only businesses with a strong online presence survive. Restaurants are already a low margin business and I suspect there are lasting changes to 'eat out' behavior even when society reopens. The Cheesecake Factory has already stated they won't make rent for 29 of their sites so some big chains will disappear. We are also seeing flaws in the business model for Uber, Instacart, etc. There is no loyalty bond between the workers and the company (e.g., salary or health insurance) so the workforce can vaporize in an instant. Uber was already eating 1B/quarter and this may be end of days for them. Finally, who the fuck would take a cruise after this? It was already a semi-hazardous activity with norovirus outbreaks, but Corona will have worldwide impact likely into 2022. If they reopen and have another Corona-ship, that would almost ensure the end.

I'm perhaps a pessimist.
 
IckerDeac said:
Some of the big retailers were already stressed - see Macy's furloughing 125K workers. I worry even businesses like that collapse and only businesses with a strong online presence survive. Restaurants are already a low margin business and I suspect there are lasting changes to 'eat out' behavior even when society reopens. The Cheesecake Factory has already stated they won't make rent for 29 of their sites so some big chains will disappear. We are also seeing flaws in the business model for Uber, Instacart, etc. There is no loyalty bond between the workers and the company (e.g., salary or health insurance) so the workforce can vaporize in an instant. Uber was already eating 1B/quarter and this may be end of days for them. Finally, who the fuck would take a cruise after this? It was already a semi-hazardous activity with norovirus outbreaks, but Corona will have worldwide impact likely into 2022. If they reopen and have another Corona-ship, that would almost ensure the end.

I'm perhaps a pessimist.
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I bet there's a whole lot of red staters who would get on a cruise next year.

If they're still alive
 
IckerDeac said:
Finally, who the fuck would take a cruise after this? It was already a semi-hazardous activity with norovirus outbreaks, but Corona will have worldwide impact likely into 2022. If they reopen and have another Corona-ship, that would almost ensure the end.

I'm perhaps a pessimist.
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This whole thing has definitely changed my thoughts on cruising. It will be a long time before I even think about it again.
 
Liquid Karma said:
Cruise lines aren't getting bailed out.
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We'll see. I'd be willing to bet a good amount of money the government doesn't just let them fail. Maybe they make some agreement where they agree to sail under the U.S. flag and pay taxes, be subject to employment law, etc, but they'll be getting their billions IMHO.
 
tigerswood said:
We'll see. I'd be willing to bet a good amount of money the government doesn't just let them fail. Maybe they make some agreement where they agree to sail under the U.S. flag and pay taxes, be subject to employment law, etc, but they'll be getting their billions IMHO.
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I think there would be a lot of resistance to bailing out cruise lines unless they meet those exact conditions. I can't see the cruise lines going for it.
 
tigerswood said:
We'll see. I'd be willing to bet a good amount of money the government doesn't just let them fail. Maybe they make some agreement where they agree to sail under the U.S. flag and pay taxes, be subject to employment law, etc, but they'll be getting their billions IMHO.
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Have you been on a cruise? They can't afford to be subject to employment law. Literally, the employees work 18 hour days 7 days a week for weeks on end before getting any break.
 
MichDeac25 said:
Have you been on a cruise? They can't afford to be subject to employment law. Literally, the employees work 18 hour days 7 days a week for weeks on end before getting any break.
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TITCR. Hiring lobbyists and funding Super PACs for industry-friendly politicians is the cheaper strategy.
 
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Republicans: WHAAAAAATTTT!??!?!?!?!? What does broadband internet and clean water have to do with working from home and preventing the spread of disease?????????
 
PhDeac said:
Yeah, but the Red Lobsters of the world can handle it. You can make an argument that Best Buy could fall because big box electronics retailers have been on the brink for awhile, but I doubt this is what will take down the major chains.

It would be a major shock to the system if people who bought Carnival for "cheap" had to stomach the bottom falling out of the cruise line industry.
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I wonder how many small breweries will get bought out by InBev (Annheiser Busch), a la Wicked Weed.
 
tigerswood said:
We'll see. I'd be willing to bet a good amount of money the government doesn't just let them fail. Maybe they make some agreement where they agree to sail under the U.S. flag and pay taxes, be subject to employment law, etc, but they'll be getting their billions IMHO.
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Those restrictions would kill the “cheap cruise” model and therefore the cruise industry.

Unless the US passes laws that exempts the cruise industry from labor laws like it has for certain parts of the fishing industry.
 
deactherunner said:
I wonder how many small breweries will get bought out by InBev (Annheiser Busch), a la Wicked Weed.
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Yeah. That's a fear. Could happen to other types of small businesses as well. "Great time to buy!"
 
This bump will not last much longer. Market will crash. Housing market is looking bad. Fed may have caused some of that problem.
 
WFFaithful said:
This bump will not last much longer. Market will crash. Housing market is looking bad. Fed may have caused some of that problem.
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I just read an article about that. I also just went out to buy some supplies - stores that open are vacant, paper items are completely picked over. I don't know how this does not have a huge impact on the economy. This just feels like 2008 was child's play.
 
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