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The ACC 2012-13: Stoglin leaves early...

OldGoldBeard

OldGoldBeard

A Sorry WR Like Crabtree
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Teams That Should Be Better
Duke 26-5 (13-3)
Likely losses: Miles Plumlee (6.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg), Rivers (15.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, early entry)
Key returners: Ma. Plumlee (11.1 ppg, 9.2 rpg), Curry (13.2 ppg), Kelly (11.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Dawkins (8.4 ppg), Cook (4.4 ppg), Thornton (4.1 ppg)
Key frosh: Sulaimon (SG, #17)
Will need a go-to guy to replace Rivers, but bring back most of their team and may add another impact frosh

NC State 20-11 (9-7)
Likely losses: Williams (10.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Painter (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, transfer), Johnson (4.4 ppg, 2.8 apg)
Key returners: Leslie (14.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg), Brown (12.7 ppg, 6.3 apg), Wood (12.4 ppg), Howell (10.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg),
Key frosh: Purvis (SG #12), Warren (SF #23), Lewis (PG #59)
Return four starters and add three McDonald's A-A's. Good bet to be the conference's most improved team so long as Leslie and Brown don't jump ship.

Miami 18-11 (9-7)
Likely losses: Grant (10.8 ppg), Jones (5.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg)
Key returners: Reggie (10 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Kadji (11.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Scott (12.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg), McKinney-Jones (7 ppg, 3.5 rpg), Larkin (7.4 ppg), Brown (7.2 ppg), Adams (4.5 ppg), Gamble (injured)
Key frosh: Johnson (SG, ESPN top 100)
Have a shot to be a top-tier ACC team next year, but it all hinges on whether Reggie comes back. He declared once already, and can't test the waters but come back again.

Maryland 17-14 (6-10)
Likely losses: Stoglin (21.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Mosley (10.2 ppg, 5 rpg), Parker (4.3 ppg, 3 rpg, transfer)
Key returners: Padgett (8.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Faust (8.9 ppg, 4 rpg), Len (6 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Pankey (4.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Howard (6.5 ppg, 3.7 apg)
Key frosh: Cleare (C #36), Layman (SF #62), Mitchell (PF #95)
Drop from a likely tournament team to a likely NIT team with the loss of Stoglin.

Georgia Tech 11-19 (4-12)
Likely losses: Foreman (1.5 ppg), Rice (13 ppg, 6.7 rpg, dismissed)
Key returners: Udofia (9.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Holsey (9.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Miller (8.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Morris (7.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Reed (7.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg), Royal (4.4 ppg)
Key frosh: Carter (C #24), Hunt (SG #94), Poole (UK transfer)
With Rice's departure, they have no go-to scorer and really need someone to make that leap or Hunt to contribute from day one. Still get deeper and more talented.

Boston College 9-21 (4-12)
Likely losses: Humphrey (10.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, transfer), Cahill (2.2 ppg)
Key returners: Anderson (11.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg), Clifford (8.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg), Heckmann (8.3 ppg, 3 rpg), Jackson (8.3 ppg), Daniels (6.4 ppg), Moton (2.9 ppg)
Key frosh: none (Hanlan, 3-star PG ESPN)
Kind of have to be better simply by virtue of being a year older, but would be surprising if they get too far from the cellar.


Teams That Should Be About the Same

Virginia Tech 15-16 (4-12)
Likely losses: Davila (7.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Hudson (10.9 ppg)
Key returners: Green (15.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Eddie (9.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg), Brown (6.8 ppg), Finney-Smith (6.3 ppg, 7 rpg), Barksdale (2.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg), Raines (5.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg), Rankin (2.5 ppg), Thompson (injured)
Key frosh: Harrell (PF #83)
Now that Greenberg seems safe and Green has shot down transfer rumors, would bump them up into the "Better" category.



Teams That Should Be Worse
North Carolina 27-4 (14-2)
Likely losses: Zeller (16.3 ppg, 9.6 rpg), Henson (13.7 ppg, 9.9 rpg, early entry), Barnes (17.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, early entry), Marshall (8.1 ppg, 9.8 apg, early entry)
Key returners: Bullock (8.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg), Strickland (7.5 ppg), McAdoo (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg), Hairston (5.7 ppg)
Key frosh: Paige (PG, #29); Johnson (PF, #38); James (C, #61); Tokoto (SF, #66)
Will be much smaller and shouldn't have near the inside game next year, although I would expect McAdoo to make big strides.

Florida State 21-9 (12-4)
Likely losses: James (10.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg), Gibson (6.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Kreft (2.8 ppg), Loucks (7.1 ppg, 4.3 apg), Dulkys (7 ppg)
Key returners: Snaer (14 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Miller (10.3 ppg), White (7.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Peterson (3.1 ppg), Shannon (8.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg pre-injury)
Key frosh: Brandon (SF, #78)
Lose almost all their height. Got to think Snaer's miserable NCAAT keeps him out of the draft.

Virginia 22-8 (9-7)
Likely losses: Scott (18 ppg, 8.3 rpg), Sene (4.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg), Zeglinski (8.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg)
Key returners: Harris (11.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg), Evans (7.3 ppg, 3.9 apg), Brogdon (6.7 ppg), Mitchell (4.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg), Atkins (2.3 ppg)
Key frosh: Anderson (SF #47), Nolte (PF, #89), Tobey (C, #97)
Return most of their (very limited) rotation, but hard to overstate the loss of Scott. Thin team that loses three (when healthy) starters.

Clemson 16-14 (8-8)
Likely losses: Young (13.3 ppg, 3.1 apg), Smith (11.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg), Narcisse (2.6 ppg), Baciu (4.1 ppg)
Key returners: Booker (10.5 ppg, 7 rpg), Jennings (9.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Coleman (2.6 ppg), McDaniels (3.9 ppg), Hall (3.8 ppg), Sapp (3.6 ppg)
Key frosh: Blossomgame (SF, ESPN top 100)
Lose three starters and not bringing in any huge names. Should be bottom third next year.



So whom do we pass and where do we finish next year? Clemson for sure, and should stay ahead of BC. Do we keep in front of the Techs? Pass the Florida schools if there are NBA defections? Maybe Virginia? Going to be tough for us to get into the top half of the conference without our freshmen far outperforming their rankings and a couple of returners making big leaps.

Defections/Returners

Rice dismissed

Rivers going pro, will hire agent

Kadji to return to Miami

Marshall, Barnes, Henson leaving UNC; McAdoo staying

Matt Humphrey to transfer from BC

Mychal Parker transferring from Maryland

Mason Plumlee staying at dook

Painter transferring from State

PackPride confirms Leslie will return

Stoglin leaving after all
 
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I think the ACC will finally start turning the corner next year. I think MD and State will be tourney teams. Noles will def take a step back but still has talent. VA will be interesting to watch, I wouldnt write them off could be a bubble team along with Miami. No idea about GT, dont have that much faith in Gregory. VT also kind of a wildcard at this point.

I think we will need to be a pretty good basketball team to finish in the top half, unlike the last few years.
 
If I had to guess right now:

1.) Duke
2.) NC State
3.) UNC
4.) Miami
5.) Maryland
6.) FSU
7.) Virginia
8.) VPI
9.) Georgia Tech
10.) Clemson
11.) Boston College

I guess I'd flip flop Miami and Maryland if Johnson were to go pro. I think Wake fits nicely in the 5-7 range. We should be better than VT, stay better than GT/BC, and pass Clemson. I think we'll have the talent to match UVA and FSU, and maybe Miami if Johnson leaves. Maybe that'll be seen as overly optimistic, but I think it's easy to underestimate the impact of going from 2-3 ACC players, to hopefully 5-6. Just having more warm bodies that won't be actively detrimental on the floor... that'll be really nice. (I'm also really high on Wake's frosh class, more so than UMD's or UVA's.)
 
I know we should be better but I have a bad feeling that Thomas and Cav won't be enough of an upgrade over Nikita and Walker to make us better than the bottom third of the ACC again.
 
I would drop us back to 9th or so. Post Ty, Carson had 2 rebounds one in each of our last two games with 30 average minutes per game. That is a fatal flaw in making a case for a big move up the ladder.
 
I fear the loss of Ty and Nikita will adversely affect us far more than the arrival of the freshmen frontcourt players will help. As a result, I have a hard time seeing us finishing anywhere above the 7-10 range in the standings.
 
CMM should be enough of an upgrade over TC to vault us a ton -- he doesn't even have to be good. Our PG situation is kind of like the Steelers going from Tommy Maddox to Roethlisberger or the Bulls going from Del Negro to Thibodeaux. It's not just that the replacement is good, but that the replaced was so epically bad.

I think everyone on the board realizes that TC isn't the answer at PG, but I think he's even worse than the prevailing opinion. But we'll see, I guess.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
CMM should be enough of an upgrade over TC to vault us a ton -- he doesn't even have to be good. Our PG situation is kind of like the Steelers going from Tommy Maddox to Roethlisberger or the Bulls going from Del Negro to Thibodeaux. It's not just that the replacement is good, but that the replaced was so epically bad.

I think everyone on the board realizes that TC isn't the answer at PG, but I think he's even worse than the prevailing opinion. But we'll see, I guess.
Click to expand...

I agree but I'm afraid the difference will be losing by 8-10 every game and not 20+. We are going to get brutalized inside again.
 
Ty was a pretty good rebounder, but I think his contributions to the post game are being exaggerated by comparing him to Carson. Nikita was the best "big" we had on the team, probably followed by Travis. After that, I would seriously consider some of our guards. Just because Thomas, Cav, Rountree, etc. don't look "big" on paper, doesn't mean at least one of them doesn't play big on the court. I am not as versed in their abilities as some on here, but it doesn't take height to be a successful collegiate F or C. Eric Williams was the best center we have had in the last decade (probably since Duncan), and he was listed at 6'9" (I think he was actually even smaller than that). I know none of these guys are bruisers, but give me a guy who plays big over 4 guys that are big any day.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
Teams That Should Be Better
Duke 26-5 (13-3)
Likely losses: Miles Plumlee, Rivers*
Key returners: Curry, Kelly, Dawkins, Ma Plumlee, Cook, Thornton
Key frosh: Sulaimon (SG, #17)
Will need a go-to guy to replace Rivers, but bring back most of their team and may add another impact frosh

NC State 20-11 (9-7)
Likely losses: Williams, Johnson
Key returners: Leslie(?), Wood, Brown, Howell, Painter
Key frosh: Purvis (SG #12), Warren (SF #23), Lewis (PG #59)
Return four starters and add three McDonald's A-A's. Good bet to be the conference's most improved team so long as Leslie doesn't jump ship.

Miami 18-11 (9-7)
Likely losses: Grant, Jones
Key returners: Scott, Kadji, Reggie(?), McKinney-Jones, Larkin, Brown, Adams
Key frosh: Johnson (SG, ESPN top 100)
Have a shot to be a top-tier ACC team next year, but it all hinges on whether Reggie comes back. He declared once already, and can't test the waters but come back again.

Maryland 17-14 (6-10)
Likely losses: Mosley
Key returners: Stoglin, Padgett, Faust, Len, Pankey, Howard, Parker
Key frosh: Cleare (C #36), Layman (SF #62), Mitchell (PF #95)
Stoglin's another potential departure due to his differences with Turgeon, but they should be improved regardless, with much better depth.

Georgia Tech 11-19 (4-12)
Likely losses: Foreman, Rice(?)
Key returners: Udofia, Holsey, Miller, Morris, Reed, Royal
Key frosh: Carter (C #24), Hunt (SG #94), Poole (UK transfer)
Return virtual their whole team if Rice is back. If not, still get a needed infusion of talent and depth.

Boston College 9-21 (4-12)
Likely losses: none
Key returners: all
Key frosh: none (Hanlan, 3-star PG ESPN)
Kind of have to be better simply by virtue of being a year older, but would be surprising if they get too far from the cellar.


Teams That Should Be About the Same

Virginia Tech 15-16 (4-12)
Likely losses: Davila, Hudson
Key returners: Green, Eddie, Brown, Finney-Smith, Barksdale, Raines, Rankin, Thompson
Key frosh: Harrell (PF #83)
Conference record should increase significantly, even if the team isn't much better. Would be up a category if it weren't for Greenberg's insecurity and potential defections as a result. Thompson finally returns to the court next year.



Teams That Should Be Worse
North Carolina 27-4 (14-2)
Likely losses: Zeller, Henson*, Barnes*
Key returners: Marshall, Bullock, Strickland, McAdoo, Hairston
Key frosh: Paige (PG, #29); Johnson (PF, #38); James (C, #61); Tokoto (SF, #66)
Will be much smaller and shouldn't have near the inside game next year, although I would expect McAdoo to make big strides.

Florida State 21-9 (12-4)
Likely losses: James, Gibson, Kraft, Loucks, Dulkys
Key returners: Snaer(?), Miller, White, Peterson, Shannon
Key frosh: Brandon (SF, #78)
Lose almost all their height. I doubt Snaer would go pro, but it will be devastating if he does.

Virginia 22-8 (9-7)
Likely losses: Scott, Sene, Zeglinski
Key returners: Harris, Evans, Brogdon, Mitchell, Atkins
Key frosh: Anderson (SF #47), Nolte (PF, #89), Tobey (C, #97)
Return most of their (very limited) rotation, but hard to overstate the loss of Scott. Thin team that loses three (when healthy) starters.

Clemson 16-14 (8-8)
Likely losses: Young, Smith, Narcisse, Baciu
Key returners: Booker, Jennings, Coleman, McDaniels, Hall, Sapp
Key frosh: Blossomgame (SF, ESPN top 100)
Lose three starters and not bringing in any huge names. Should be bottom third next year.



So whom do we pass and where do we finish next year? Clemson for sure, and should stay ahead of BC. Do we keep in front of the Techs? Pass the Florida schools if there are NBA defections? Maybe Virginia? Going to be tough for us to get into the top half of the conference without our freshmen far outperforming their rankings and a couple of returners making big leaps.
Click to expand...

Lots of rumors that Erick Green may not be returning to Va. Tech FWIW.
 
buckets said:
I know we should be better but I have a bad feeling that Thomas and Cav won't be enough of an upgrade over Nikita and Walker to make us better than the bottom third of the ACC again.
Click to expand...

KidA23 said:
I fear the loss of Ty and Nikita will adversely affect us far more than the arrival of the freshmen frontcourt players will help. As a result, I have a hard time seeing us finishing anywhere above the 7-10 range in the standings.
Click to expand...

Well said. I think people grossly underestimate how much improvement it takes to go from losing double-digits to bad teams to regularly beating bad teams and pulling an upset or two. Thomas and Cavanaugh would have to be much better than advertised (by non-Deac sources) to consistently contribute on the level necessary to make that happen. I think we're still only going to have a 7-8 man rotation with CJ and Travis playing 35+ minutes in ACC play.

buckets said:
I agree but I'm afraid the difference will be losing by 8-10 every game and not 20+. We are going to get brutalized inside again.
Click to expand...
 
I mean... I just see the best case scenario as Thomas being better than Nikita, Carson, and/or Ty and Cav being as good. Even that is a longshot and optimistic, and if it does happen, we will still get eaten alive inside by any decent team.
 
Exactly. Unfortunately, what we're going to hear is the same people who have been saying you can't expect a big man to contribute until their junior year in defense of Carson saying that Thomas is a beast who will contribute immediately. Even if we get freshman year Big E or Songaila is that going to be enough to push this team into the top half of the conference?

And CMM almost has to be a 30 mpg PG. It's not optional.
 
If CJ Leslie comes back we could really do some serious damage next season. Being NC State, I'm expecting him to leave.
 
Just for reference's sake, here are the numbers from some of our notable freshmen over the past five years:
Fischer- 26.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 35% FG
McKie- 31.1 mpg, 13.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.0 apg, 50% FG
JTT- 24.0 mpg, 11.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.6 apg, 37% FG
Carson- 19.1 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.7 apg, 39% FG
Harris- 27.9 mpg, 9.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 39% FG
Stewart- 17.1 mpg, 7.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.3 apg, 37% FG
AFA- 29.0 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 52% FG
JJ- 29.2 mpg, 14.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.2 apg, 49% FG
Teague- 29.7 mpg, 13.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 43% FG


I think a few people are counting on CMM to put up Teague numbers and Devin to match AFA right out of the gate. Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen, and we're going to struggle unless it does.
 
For the most part, those players matched their ratings.
 
Devin Thomas probably won't match AFA (although I'd LOVE for him to prove me wrong), but I could see CMM breaking out and having a great freshman season. I don't know if he'll play 29.7 mpg, but he can probably score at least 10 ppg.
 
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