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The Bubble

I believe this is the most likely scenario. Cam has to do another good job on Hinson. Sallis and Boopie et al have to handle the freshmen. This is a good matchup. Winner goes.

Reid may just go to another level here. Clemson after half was his best game.

Clemson beats UVA
 
Again, I don't see how we're out of the tournament with a run to the finals. Even if the committee isn't putting that much emphasis on conference tournament results, we're padding our resume once plenty of bubble teams around us have lost and are just waiting for Sunday.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
My absolutely unofficial projections:

Win 0 games: 0% chance
Win 1 game: 0% chance
Win 2 games: 40% chance
Win 3 games: 95% chance
Win 4 games: Hang the banners

The 40% win 2 games factors in situations where we absolutely blow out Tech/ND and then Pitt with a very close UNC loss as well as sneaking by both and getting run out of the gym by UNC
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Curious numby, where would you put the % if we win 3 games, but UNC gets bounced by VT or FSU on Thurs?

If that happens unfortunately I wouldn't be much more confident than if we win two games
 
I think if we win 3 we are in no matter who we play, unless UVA or Cuse (or worse) runs to the finals and then beats us
 
wsc8521s said:
Curious numby, where would you put the % if we win 3 games, but UNC gets bounced by VT or FSU on Thurs?

If that happens unfortunately I wouldn't be much more confident than if we win two games
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I'd say probably 70-75%? If it's VT we'd probably tack on another Q1 win. That's a good question though. May be closer to 50%? I'd say better than a coin flip for sure though.
 
If Lynn Kidd is healthy, VT beats UNC in the quarters. Just an epic flat spot for UNC.
 
Wake is currently -210 to miss the NCAAT on Fanduel. Some other odds (this is to MISS, so a negative number means more likely to miss it than make it):

Indiana State -270
New Mexico -194
Virginia -188
Nova -104
Mississippi State +152

Pitt is off the board but they were -750 to miss it earlier today haha.
 
Winning in Cameron on Saturday night was huge for UNC. They will next play at noon on Thursday on a neutral court, with a late arriving crowd. UNC will struggle. That said, Lynn Kidd missed the ND game with a hamstring issue. He's the only VT big with a pulse. If he can't go, UNC will be just too big inside for the Hokies. FSU is a mess and have no faith in the Seminoles to push UNC. That said, FSU played two competitive games against UNC this year.
 
If you think Mississippi State is going to make the NCAAT and want to bet it (-210), I think you can just take them ML against LSU at a better number. They're almost a lock with a win there IMO and I doubt they're going to be any worse than -210 against LSU. They're roughly a 4 to 4.5 point favorite on a neutral court I'd guess?

Same goes for Villanova. They're -128 to make it. If you want to bet that, just wait and take them ML against Marquette. I think it's pretty unlikely Nova gets a bid if they don't get two wins at MSG. Obviously the difference in odds there is the chance you think Nova has to get in if they lose to Marquette...
 
Pilchard said:
If Lynn Kidd is healthy, VT beats UNC in the quarters. Just an epic flat spot for UNC.
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Interesting call. They have been playing better the last 2 weeks. I do pay attention when you go out on a limb.

But are you going to root for the Dukes in the Dance?
 
Yall were both wrong. VT is the best team in Virginia. Although I imagine Virginia would find some solace in making the tournament regardless
 
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