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Trump's SCOTUS Nominee

PhDeac said:
I saw an article today suggesting that the Gorush nom was an attempt to coax Kennedy into retirement.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...n-to-win-over-justice-kennedy/article/2619875
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I'm terrified right now. Ginsburg is 84. Kennedy is 80. Breyer is 78. It is entirely possible that by the end of this 4 year regime, the court will be packed with 7 conservative justices, with potentially 4 ultra-conservatives. The only thing that could stop this would be helpful he victories for Democrats in 2018 Senate races. It's not a stretch to say that the 2018 Senate midterms are the most important congressional races in decades, if not American history. A half-century or more of American jurisprudence would be on the line.
 
AsesinoDeTortugas said:
I'm terrified right now. Ginsburg is 84. Kennedy is 80. Breyer is 78. It is entirely possible that by the end of this 4 year regime, the court will be packed with 7 conservative justices, with potentially 4 ultra-conservatives. The only thing that could stop this would be helpful he victories for Democrats in 2018 Senate races. It's not a stretch to say that the 2018 Senate midterms are the most important congressional races in decades, if not American history. A half-century or more of American jurisprudence would be on the line.
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i have to admit, it terrifies me as well. next thing we know they will go after roe v wade and then the 19th amendment...that seems the way GOP is working right now.
 
RChildress107 said:
Kind of like we will never know for sure the fallout of not filibustering. The reaction to the DNC not throwing money Thompson's way in KS-4 gives us some indication though.
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What's the reaction? Do you think the Dem base is not going to turn out to vote in 2018 because of it? Seems doubtful. The people who care about this stuff are not the people you have to worry about voting.
 
It's not about getting the Dem base to vote, it is about getting them to donate, canvas, phone-bank, etc, delivering more than just one vote per person. Thompson had people phone-banking from around the country.

It takes more than the votes of the base to move an election 20 points.
 
AsesinoDeTortugas said:
I'm terrified right now. Ginsburg is 84. Kennedy is 80. Breyer is 78. It is entirely possible that by the end of this 4 year regime, the court will be packed with 7 conservative justices, with potentially 4 ultra-conservatives. The only thing that could stop this would be helpful he victories for Democrats in 2018 Senate races. It's not a stretch to say that the 2018 Senate midterms are the most important congressional races in decades, if not American history. A half-century or more of American jurisprudence would be on the line.
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It's scary in the mid-term, but if Dems start winning elections I'm not that worried in the long term. If the courts decisions get way out of wack with the views of the general population it will course correct one way or another.
 
avalon said:
It's not about getting the Dem base to vote, it is about getting them to donate, canvas, phone-bank, etc, delivering more than just one vote per person. Thompson had people phone-banking from around the country.

It takes more than the votes of the base to move an election 20 points.
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This guy gets it.
 
avalon said:
It's not about getting the Dem base to vote, it is about getting them to donate, canvas, phone-bank, etc, delivering more than just one vote per person. Thompson had people phone-banking from around the country.

It takes more than the votes of the base to move an election 20 points.
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Not really. How many Kansas liberals don't bother to vote because they don't think it is worth it? The DNC needs to find them and reach them and tell them their votes matter. There were five counties last night in which more people voted for the Dem than they did in November. That's amazing.

The DNC didn't see a chance for a win until the Republicans saw it. That's inexcusable.
 
avalon said:
It's not about getting the Dem base to vote, it is about getting them to donate, canvas, phone-bank, etc, delivering more than just one vote per person. Thompson had people phone-banking from around the country.

It takes more than the votes of the base to move an election 20 points.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's fair. I still think that you guys are way overestimating the effects of things like the decision to filibuster. Are fewer people phone-banking for Thompson if the Dems didn't filibuster Gorsuch but still voted against his confirmation? Count me as pretty skeptical
 
PhDeac said:
Not really. How many Kansas liberals don't bother to vote because they don't think it is worth it? The DNC needs to find them and reach them and tell them their votes matter. There were five counties last night in which more people voted for the Dem than they did in November. That's amazing.

The DNC didn't see a chance for a win until the Republicans saw it. That's inexcusable.
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I'm gonna guess not that many PH. This has been a big story in Kansas for awhile. I'm skeptical that there was this mass of potential Dem voters that didn't show up. The Dems there cared about this. There just aren't enough of them.
 
MysteryMen said:
I'm gonna guess not that many PH. This has been a big story in Kansas for awhile. I'm skeptical that there was this mass of potential Dem voters that didn't show up. The Dems there cared about this. There just aren't enough of them.
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Maybe they look at it like many more Dems showed up and is a good omen in the suburban districts of Philly, NYC, Chicago, Cleveland and other places.
 
MysteryMen said:
Yeah it's fair. I still think that you guys are way overestimating the effects of things like the decision to filibuster. Are fewer people phone-banking for Thompson if the Dems didn't filibuster Gorsuch but still voted against his confirmation? Count me as pretty skeptical
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Thompson? No, he already had the grassroots support. The Senate Dems want to win that for the rest of their candidates. (And themselves!)

It may be a reach, but they were weighing it against the chance that Republicans would vote against the nuclear option for a nominee they would support.
 
For me, the main reason that Senate Dems filibustered is that they worried they might be primaried if they didn't. That seems like a pretty bad reason.
 
MysteryMen said:
For me, the main reason that Senate Dems filibustered is that they worried they might be primaried if they didn't. That seems like a pretty bad reason.
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Being primaried was a minor reason Dems rarely do that. The #1 reason was Merrick Garland. The second reason is that Gorsuch is well out of the mainstream. If he doesn't change, he may become the most RW Justice. His positions on individuals vs. corporations and Hobby lobby show this.

They also wanted to use Gorsuch and the end of the filibuster to motivate Dems who stayed home in 2016. They were the #1 factor in electing Trump. Had they showed up, there would be no Trump and no Gorsuch.
 
RJKarl said:
Being primaried was a minor reason Dems rarely do that. The #1 reason was Merrick Garland. The second reason is that Gorsuch is well out of the mainstream. If he doesn't change, he may become the most RW Justice. His positions on individuals vs. corporations and Hobby lobby show this.

They also wanted to use Gorsuch and the end of the filibuster to motivate Dems who stayed home in 2016. They were the #1 factor in electing Trump. Had they showed up, there would be no Trump and no Gorsuch.
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We're going to go in circles here, but if this was their goal then it was a pretty dumb goal because the filibuster didn't move the needle. Happened less than a week ago and nobody is talking about it.
 
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