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Ukraine is game to you?

A couple of key developments the past few days.



Staromaiors'ke is arguably the most strategically-important town Ukraine has liberated in the counter-offensive and represents the farthest push thus far.



This is the greatest tactical success for the AFU in the counter-offensive. Significantly, they seem to have achieved this without a huge commitment of their reserve brigades. While some Russia sources reported a huge number of vehicles (80-90), others said 30-40, and best estimates are that it included at most one of the 10-12 NATO-trained brigades that have been held in reserve.

See also:



This guy is kind of crazy, but I do like his maps.



On the negative side, we do have this:



By my estimates, that means Ukraine has suffered 2.5 million casualties, so they're probably going to have to give up soon. It was a good run while it lasted.
 
idk sounds like the offensive isnt exactly taking off and a protracted stalemate seems likely. that will soften western resolve and i think lead to pressure to negotiate. sucks for them to give up territory, but (selfishly for US) if that's the price to get nordics in NATO along with Ukraine once war is over that's not a bad deal for US. Russia will be permanently blunted on their western front.
 
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Yes as much as it's a concession for Ukraine, settling, giving the territory up and joining NATO seems the best solution at this point. Putin the Bastard saves face; Ukraine ensures protection from any future Russian incursions and the killing stops.
Let's hope that is the direction we are headed. This cannot continue.
 
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Urozhaine officially liberated. This seemed like a foregone conclusion after Staromaiors'ke fell, but the Russians kept pumping troops into Urozhaine even after the AFU established fire control on their lines of communication and absolutely raked their men both as they came in to reinforce and then as they retreated. There are videos out there, but I take no pleasure in watching them and won't post them here.



The AFU is also pushing deep into Robotyne, which is a key Russian position that they've invested a lot of resources into fortifying and keeping.



Meanwhile, the AFU has maintained a presence south of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast and has been conducting artillery strikes there, including a significant one in Oleshki.



As the flooding from the destruction of the Khakova Dam subsides, it seems likely the AFU will open another line of advance in that direction, possibly allowing them to bypass Russian fortifications.



On the eastern front, the Russians are pushing hard with their own offensive against Kupyansk and south of Bakhmut. They've made some small territorial gains around Bakhmut, and have forced the AFU to commit some reserves, but are apparently suffering massive casualties. In my estimation, assaulting Kupyansk is exactly what the AFU would want Russia to do, so that they can press forward in the south and consolidate gains.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1691408841748189184

The ruble briefly plunged to under 1 cent before the Russian Central Bank jacked interest rates up by 3.5 percentage points.


My overall and very amateur assessment is that the Russians lost and are about to lose key positions at Urozhaine and Robotyne that they tried very hard to hold, and at the cost of massive casualties. It also appears that the AFU committed some of their elite reserve brigades as part of the effort. That gives me some optimism that we'll see a more rapid advance over the next few weeks, but we'll see. The density of mines the Russians have planted is overwhelming.

https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1691508962590388224

Slava Ukraini
 
New right wing marching orders: Stop giving money to Ukraine before we give it to Maui…as the Republicans hold the house.
 
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Demonwolverine said:
New right wing marching orders: Stop giving money to Ukraine before we give it to Maui…as the Republicans hold the house.
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Same people who gave Obama flack for going to Hawaii over the holidays because it wasn’t American enough.
 
Republicans are using this in bad faith, but the fact that we have 100’s of billions for Ukraine and are offering entire households in the wildfires 700 bucks is a bad look. Especially after Biden had “no comment” after asked.
 
And yes republicans suck…. And they wouldn’t give a fuck….. but I wish democrats and the federal government would do better here
 
so many false equivalencies in the dollar comparison but you are 100% correct in that it is all public perception when it comes to politics.
 
WFcatamount22 said:
Republicans are using this in bad faith, but the fact that we have 100’s of billions for Ukraine and are offering entire households in the wildfires 700 bucks is a bad look. Especially after Biden had “no comment” after asked.
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Republicans do everything in bad faith. 6 months ago they nearly defaulted on US debt demanding spending cuts on everything but the military and they are going to shut the government down in October doing the same thing but today they are going to blame Joe Biden for not spending enough money.
 
It's worse than just a "bad look," it's a bad policy to shortchange disaster victims in Hawaii while sending hundreds of billions to an unaccountable and hopelessly corrupt side that cannot win against Russia
 
sailordeac said:
It's worse than just a "bad look," it's a bad policy to shortchange disaster victims in Hawaii while sending hundreds of billions to an unaccountable and hopelessly corrupt side that cannot win against Russia
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If you think this is about us actually trying to help Ukraine you are watching the wrong movie amigo. I mean this nicely but no one really cares about UKR - the investment is all about permanently neutering Russia’s expansionist interest - which I’d say we’ve accomplished quite successfully.
 
sailordeac said:
It's worse than just a "bad look," it's a bad policy to shortchange disaster victims in Hawaii while sending hundreds of billions to an unaccountable and hopelessly corrupt side that cannot win against Russia
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So why did republicans try to default on Federal debt by insisting on cutting spending on everything but the military?
 
sailordeac said:
It's worse than just a "bad look," it's a bad policy to shortchange disaster victims in Hawaii while sending hundreds of billions to an unaccountable and hopelessly corrupt side that cannot win against Russia
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So fucking dumb.
 
First this was all started because some alt-right dipshit reporter didnt hear Biden but used lip reading interpretation then it got picked up into the conservative outrage machine. Second, I’m pretty sure the 700 is an immediate assistance as the quickest possible thing while FEMA does its normal paper work of vetting and payout to disaster victims. Then if you want more money like all the right wing warriors declare tell congress to authorize it I’m sure Biden will sign it that day.
 
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