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Wake at Clemson - Saturday 11/20 Game Time Speculation

I don't understand why you guys don't just block 80deacon. He's either a troll or not listening to.
 
CreamyGoodness said:
Well you've pretty much painted worst case scenario most of the season, so this is on brand.
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No CBS and No Roberson, I can also imagine some worst case scenario. Clemson's D is no slouch despite how bad their offense is. I'm probably betting the under on this one.
 
TimmyClutch said:
No CBS and No Roberson, I can also imagine some worst case scenario. Clemson's D is no slouch despite how bad their offense is. I'm probably betting the under on this one.
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I don't think we missed CBS at running back that much Saturday, but where we probably missed him was on Kick coverage. He always seems to be one of the first guys down the field.
 
Lot of talk about Clemson's defense. I heard the same thing about NC ST.

NC ST defense points allowed this year:
USF: 0
MS ST: 24
Clem: 21
BC: 7
Louisville: 13
FSU: 14

WF: 45 (And we missed a ton of opportunities)

I am not worried about our offense scoring.

Clemson Offense this year
UGA: 3
GA TECH: 14
NC ST: 21
PITT: 17
FSU & LOU: 30

I understand the dynamics here but this isn't the same Clemson program and this isn't the same Wake program. Deacs win.
 
Harpua said:
Lot of talk about Clemson's defense. I heard the same thing about NC ST.

NC ST defense points allowed this year:
USF: 0
MS ST: 24
Clem: 21
BC: 7
Louisville: 13
FSU: 14

WF: 45 (And we missed a ton of opportunities)

I am not worried about our offense scoring.

Clemson Offense this year
UGA: 3
GA TECH: 14
NC ST: 21
PITT: 17
FSU & LOU: 30

I understand the dynamics here but this isn't the same Clemson program and this isn't the same Wake program. Deacs win.
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If the world had amnesia about any college football history prior to this season and just went solely by this seasons results, including the eye test from each team's games this year. WF would be favored. That said, Clemson has been to the CFP six years in a row, WF hasn't won at Clemson since 1998, Clemson entered this season at #2 in the country, and WF was not in anyone's top 40. Clemson recruits 4 and 5 stars; WF recruits 2 and 3 stars.... Also, while it has been ugly, Clemson has won 5 of its last 6.

WF has overcome all of that existing knowledge to push the line down to 4 to 5 (had this game been played to open the season, WF would've been getting 24+). Time to complete the process.
 
Pilchard said:
If the world had amnesia about any college football history prior to this season and just went solely by this seasons results, including the eye test from each team's games this year. WF would be favored. That said, Clemson has been to the CFP six years in a row, WF hasn't won at Clemson since 1998, Clemson entered this season at #2 in the country, and WF was not in anyone's top 40. Clemson recruits 4 and 5 stars; WF recruits 2 and 3 stars.... Also, while it has been ugly, Clemson has won 5 of its last 6.

WF has overcome all of that existing knowledge to push the line down to 4 to 5 (had this game been played to open the season, WF would've been getting 24+). Time to complete the process.
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Unfortunately, I'm not sure how that's true that is. Bettors seem to have figured out Clemson lately (since their games against BC and Syracuse, leading up to their loss at Pitt) -- they line has been within seven points of the final result the past four Clemson games and they were, for example, only 3 point favorites @Louisville.

Vegas has been pretty decent at our games, too (despite the high scoring nature); four of the last six have been within seven points (all four actually within four points) with the exception of Army and Duke.

I actually think the pendulum has swung too far on Clemson -- hopefully they are hurt by injuries this weekend, but imo their on-field play warrants a top 25 ranking.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
Unfortunately, I'm not sure how that's true that is. Bettors seem to have figured out Clemson lately (since their games against BC and Syracuse, leading up to their loss at Pitt) -- they line has been within seven points of the final result the past four Clemson games and they were, for example, only 3 point favorites @Louisville.

Vegas has been pretty decent at our games, too (despite the high scoring nature); four of the last six have been within seven points (all four actually within four points) with the exception of Army and Duke.

I actually think the pendulum has swung too far on Clemson -- hopefully they are hurt by injuries this weekend, but imo their on-field play warrants a top 25 ranking.
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Clemson is 2-8 ATS on the season. Of the 130 teams in FBS, only New Mexico (1-9) ATS is worse. Their two covers were complete BS.

One of their two covers was the 30-24 win at L'ville (Clemson was -3.5), when the Cards had 1st and goal with a minute to go and could not score.

The other cover was when FSU when Clemson as a 9.5 favorite (and trailed with 7 minutes to go with 4th quarter), clung to a 24-20 lead on the Noles when this happened:



That is as bad of a beat as you will ever find.



Yes, Clemson is now playing closer to the spread, but when a team goes 2-8 on the year that means that their power rating was way over-rated when the season started (no doubting that), and think that they are still overrated given that Clemson should be 0-10 ATS on the season.
 
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I think you can find enough data points to support just about any narrative. Our line when @UNC was pretty similar to where this weekends game is. A lot of us groused about the line vs UNC and while it was only a single game, it was borne out. I think UNC is better than their record is, but I also think Clemson is a better team then they are. I think we have a great shot of winning, but playing on the road is just tough.
 
there's no data set that supports the narrative that we won't beat the shit of those hayseeds.
 
Some encouraging information for this week:

UConn held Clemson to 5 of 22 on 3rd downs (23%), 6 YPP, and 3 YPC. On the season, UConn, who has not exactly played a murderer's row of a schedule, allows averages of 41%, 7.4, and 4.3, respectively. According to FEI, UConn's defensive efficiency is 127th and ours is 59th (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overall/2021)

This Clemson offense is BAD (91st per FEI). And, staying with FEI, our offensive efficiency is better than their defensive efficiency (4th overall vs. 7th overall).

If this one were at home, I'd say we win by 10 pts or more. In Clemson, I think we win a close one.
 
I’m old enough and mature enough to realize how important farmers are and how AG schools contribute to our daily lives . That being said….

Wake forest = culture
Clemson= agriculture
 
Clemson's defense is good enough to win a game almost exclusively. Clemson's offense wasn't good full strength and now they have a hobbled qb and are down their two top receivers.

I'm not sure how Clemson is ranked so high in the Power ratings. I mean they were lucky to beat Syracuse based on a fake punt, and would have lost to UL if Cunningham didn't get hurt. They should have lost ABC at home too with their backup quarterback.
 
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TimmyClutch said:
No CBS and No Roberson, I can also imagine some worst case scenario. Clemson's D is no slouch despite how bad their offense is. I'm probably betting the under on this one.
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On their side, sounds like Justyn Ross is out
 
Is this the first week Kamara is listed above Bergan on the depth chart? Thought that was strange all season. Roberson, Greer, and CBS all on there too, not that it means much
 
ChrisL68 said:
Clemson's defense is good enough to win a game almost exclusively. Clemson's offense wasn't good full strength and now they have a hobbled qb and are down their two top receivers.

I'm not sure how Clemson is ranked so high in the Power ratings. I mean they were lucky to beat Syracuse based on a fake punt, and would have lost to UL if Cunningham didn't get hurt. They should have lost ABC at home too with their backup quarterback.
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state has given up less points this season than clemson. Clemson's defense is not that great.

look, if we need a barn raised, clemson is who you call. We aren't raising a fucking barn here.
 
Confidence about an opportunity is great. Usually, over confidence leads to errors in execution. When opponents have not won in a venue in 33 games, if I’m the opponent I’m not inclined to get too sure about outcomes, only sure about the execution I can control. Hopefully, enough of Deacon Nation is there to keep an eye on the officiating.
 
DeacDiggler said:
state has given up less points this season than clemson. Clemson's defense is not that great.

look, if we need a barn raised, clemson is who you call. We aren't raising a fucking barn here.
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I think Wake wins because Clemson's offense is so bad and now completely injured, but Clemson's defense is elite, even with some of the defensive injuries too.

Defensive Points given up:
UGA: 3 (Pick 6 by offense)
SC State: 3
Ga Tech: 6 (2 point safety by offense)
State: 14 (13 extra points in the 2 OTs)
BC: 13
CUSE: 14
Pitt: 20 (Pick 6 by offense)
FSU: 13 (TD on strip sack fumble)
Louisville: 24 - only bad defensive game
UConn: 0 (Kickoff return for TD)

My prediction is 30-20 Wake, and I'm a Clemson grad.
 
dcnelso said:
I think Wake wins because Clemson's offense is so bad and now completely injured, but Clemson's defense is elite, even with some of the defensive injuries too.

Defensive Points given up:
UGA: 3 (Pick 6 by offense)
SC State: 3
Ga Tech: 6 (2 point safety by offense)
State: 14 (13 extra points in the 2 OTs)
BC: 13
CUSE: 14
Pitt: 20 (Pick 6 by offense)
FSU: 13 (TD on strip sack fumble)
Louisville: 24 - only bad defensive game
UConn: 0 (Kickoff return for TD)

My prediction is 30-20 Wake, and I'm a Clemson grad.
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I think the key to this game will be if your defense allows our offense enough time for the RPO to develop. If Clemson disrupts our mesh and rushes Hartman's reads, which is entirely possible given your defense, it could be a very difficult game for us to win.
Conversely, if our D-Line can rush your QB, hopefully we get a turnover or two given the injury issues with your offense. That certainly fuels our offense.

Should be fun. A great offense matched against a great defense.
 
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