Wake Forest at Vanderbilt - 12 Noon - SECN

[PhDeac]

You’re comparing Wake’s offense to far less prolific offenses. It’s not about the wildcat being better than the average FBS goal line play.

Your numbers suggest the wildcat isn’t as good as a regular running play for Wake anyway.

 

[thatguy2016]

My frustration with the formation is that we are taking the ball out of the hands of a fifth-year quarterback who his coach says is one of the best in the country, eliminating the possibility of either of our two Biletnikoff candidates making a play, and relying on our maybe 5th-best option on offense to score for us.

 

[Esteban]

I charted this exact thing by hand this summer: https://247sports.com/college/wake-...Wake-Forest-and-short-yardage-runs-187693832/

Wake scored 3/8 times in goal-to-go scenarios from the wildcat(37.5%), which seems like a low number, but the FBS average conversion rate for goal-to-go run plays in 2021 was 35.7%. So they're fairly above water there when solely looking at wild cat packages. 2020 they went 7/8(87.5%) when the average was 36.6%. Running plays on the goalline results in much lower successful numbers than people realize.

It feels like the easy thing to say for the last couple of years is that Wake hasn't been good at the goalline or short yardage positions. Wake on goal-to-go plays in 2021: 40.5% conversion rate(average was 35.7%), 2020: 50%(average was 36.6%)

Designed runs needing three or fewer yards: in 2021 Wake converted 70%(FBS average was 54.9%), in 2020 Wake converted 62.16%

Really insightful-as a casual fan I assumed those were higher percentage plays for an offense.

 

[CamLemons]

You’re comparing Wake’s offense to far less prolific offenses. It’s not about the wildcat being better than the average FBS goal line play.

Your numbers suggest the wildcat isn’t as good as a regular running play for Wake anyway.

....Comparing anything to a national average means there will be less prolific offenses. That's how an average works.

It's also incorrect to say it isn't as good as a regular play. Last two years Wild Deac conversion rate: 62.5%. Non Wild Deac: 35.6%.

edited: the number for 2021 total runs on goal to go plays was 35.6 not 40 so that probably clears up a bit of confusion there.

 

[deacon14]

I choose to believe that we run the Wildcat stubbornly against teams like Vandy so that we can do interesting things like throw out of the Wildcat against Clemson. I know we got an easy TD throwing out of it last year, and I’m sure there are more plays like that waiting in the playbook.

 

[ChrisL68]

There's definitely an argument for taking uncertainty out of a game that you're heavily favored and lead by over 10.

 

[skinnydeac]

I choose to believe that we run the Wildcat stubbornly against teams like Vandy so that we can do interesting things like throw out of the Wildcat against Clemson. I know we got an easy TD throwing out of it last year, and I’m sure there are more plays like that waiting in the playbook.

Yeah, I think that sometimes coaches are intentionally stubborn and they are either trying to practice something / prove a point / not show their hand. As long as they don't go full Grobe vs Miami and throw the game.

 

[cookoutdeac]

I think you have to throw 2020 wildcat plays out entirely for any analysis, KW was just that good at making it work and finding ways to score even when the blocking was sub-par. Or I wonder if we could analyze just wildcat plays WITHOUT KW in 2020? I remember that year being pretty frustrated whenever we ran it and he wasn't the featured back because it so rarely seemed to work.

 

[PhDeac]

....Comparing anything to a national average means there will be less prolific offenses. That's how an average works.

It's also incorrect to say it isn't as good as a regular play. Last two years Wild Deac conversion rate: 62.5%. Non Wild Deac: 35.6%.

edited: the number for 2021 total runs on goal to go plays was 35.6 not 40 so that probably clears up a bit of confusion there.

Yeah. That’s how an average works. So don’t use averages.

Pretty sure we use the Wild Deac (Free Will Baptist was always a better name) on goal line situations from the 3 or in so it’s not fair to compare that to 1st and goal from the 9.

thatguy makes the best point. I’d rather the DBs be scared of a fade or back shoulder fade to AT or Greene or Morin/Key on the slant than a direct snap to the RB.

 

[Louis Gossett Jr]

I do always appreciate the equivalent of a guy from the sidewalk trying to explain anything statistical to someone whose day to day involves much more complex statistical analysis. Might need to get birdman involved next with all these complex numbers.

 

[Biff Tannen]

I look forward to Ph putting together a more cogent statistical analysis.

 

[cookoutdeac]

Yeah. That’s how an average works. So don’t use averages.

Pretty sure we use the Wild Deac (Free Will Baptist was always a better name) on goal line situations from the 3 or in so it’s not fair to compare that to 1st and goal from the 9.

Ha, I was going to also make the second point. I DO remember running the wildcat from outside the 5 yard line with KW a fair bit, but definitely not since he left.

 

[PhDeac]

I look forward to Ph putting together a more cogent statistical analysis.

If there are only 8 Wildcat plays a season, there’s not much statistical analysis to be done. It’s a gimmick play.

It’s just strange to march down the field with the threat of an RPO with multiple weapons only to go heavy and move Hartman outside or off the field so everyone knows the ball will go to the RB.

 

[IamThunderbolt]

If there are only 8 Wildcat plays a season, there’s not much statistical analysis to be done. It’s a gimmick play.

It’s just strange to march down the field with the threat of an RPO with multiple weapons only to go heavy and move Hartman outside or off the field so everyone knows the ball will go to the RB.

This is one of the reasons that motioning the QB out wide for the wildcat is preferable to lining up outside.

 

[thatguy2016]

This is one of the reasons that motioning the QB out wide for the wildcat is preferable to lining up outside.

100% - Vandy's Wildcat was quick and crisp, QB went in motion, ball is snapped, touchdown

We seem to walk up to the line and tell the other team what we're doing. Which can work with a KWIII - or if this is a long game with wrinkles upcoming, fine

 

[CamLemons]

I do always appreciate the equivalent of a guy from the sidewalk trying to explain anything statistical to someone whose day to day involves much more complex statistical analysis. Might need to get birdman involved next with all these complex numbers.

This is currently how I feel

 

[BacktoBack]

If there are only 8 Wildcat plays a season, there’s not much statistical analysis to be done. It’s a gimmick play.

It’s just strange to march down the field with the threat of an RPO with multiple weapons only to go heavy and move Hartman outside or off the field so everyone knows the ball will go to the RB.

The threat from the RPO gets less as you get closer to the end zone- It's just harder for the backers and safeties to get out of position. It's one of the reasons we've struggled in the red zone.

 

[CamLemons]

Yeah. That’s how an average works. So don’t use averages.

Pretty sure we use the Wild Deac (Free Will Baptist was always a better name) on goal line situations from the 3 or in so it’s not fair to compare that to 1st and goal from the 9.

thatguy makes the best point. I’d rather the DBs be scared of a fade or back shoulder fade to AT or Greene or Morin/Key on the slant than a direct snap to the RB.

Ah the back shoulder fade, statistically the least efficient play at the goal line you can run.

 

[TheAbster]

I'm going to go way out on the limb and assume that we are setting up the wildcat for something much bigger against Clemson, FSU or Moo-U. Essentially, throwing away the play now for much bigger returns in the future.
Perhaps a double-reverse or a pitch back to Hartman for a wide-open receiver. Something with some creativity.

#wishfulthinking

 

[Deaconblue]

I'm going to go way out on the limb and assume that we are setting up the wildcat for something much bigger against Clemson, FSU or Moo-U. Essentially, throwing away the play now for much bigger returns in the future.
Perhaps a double-reverse or a pitch back to Hartman for a wide-open receiver. Something with some creativity.

#wishfulthinking

I too would like to see more creativity. However, I'm sure coaches will hold that for Clemson or other games.

Clawson even mentioned that they used more pages in the playbook this week than last. The way he spoke implied there were more pages to be used in future games.

To me, it is looking like the staff decided ability, intensity and focus (mindset) even with a limited playbook, would get wins in the early games. Wrinkles for Clemson and later.