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Wake Forest at Vanderbilt - 12 Noon - SECN

CamLemons said:
Ah the back shoulder fade, statistically the least efficient play at the goal line you can run.
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The threat of a back shoulder fade (or any other play) should, at least theoretically, improve the success of the overall play.

I think that's why looking at success rates for a single play in a vacuum is misleading / not particularly valuable data.

Put another way, quickly running up the middle with a RB might be the single most effective goal-line play from the 2. And getting the ball straight to the RB and adding an extra blocker should theoretically make it more effective. But not necessarily if it gives away what play you are going to run. (Techmo Bowl players know)
 
I have mixed feelings on the wildcat. It's low risk, at least while it remains a run-only formation. It also requires a different technique by our offensive line, which I imagine is challenging. If we're going to use it again this season, I think Cooley gives us the best chance of success. But I agree with those who have pointed out that it eliminates our elite quarterback and receivers from the play, which is the strength of our team. I would much rather have Sam under center and either hand off to the RB with momentum or bootleg it. And if I see Ellison throwing the ball when we wouldn't let Hinton do it, I'm going to lose my mind.
 
saltydeac said:
Could someone please ask Dave if they will now officially toss the wildcat out of the playbook since can’t get 2 yards on 3 plays against Vandy! It has never worked and everyone knows it except our coaches as it is their Achilles in an otherwise awesome O. We will lose yards against better ACC Ds with that mess and everyone packing 11 in the box.
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I was at the game and the Vandy score board did not show the replay on the 4th and goal play. However, upon returning home and reviewing the game tape, it sure appears that we crossed the goal line on the 4th and goal. Do not understand why there was not a review of the play.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
The threat of a back shoulder fade (or any other play) should, at least theoretically, improve the success of the overall play.

I think that's why looking at success rates for a single play in a vacuum is misleading / not particularly valuable data.

Put another way, quickly running up the middle with a RB might be the single most effective goal-line play from the 2. And getting the ball straight to the RB and adding an extra blocker should theoretically make it more effective. But not necessarily if it gives away what play you are going to run. (Techmo Bowl players know)
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In theory it should, as the thought of "there's all these options, what are they going to do?" and it causing overload on the defense feels like the correct thing right?

But in practice, that doesn't really play out. A large amount of goal line fades aren't the original call because OC's don't want to throw it. Defensive coordinators would rather you throw a fade or even just split a guy out wide than try to run the ball down their throat. You're always dealing with percentages of types of plays and it's known that a fade is just a bad play call because the defense doesn't really have to do much on it, it's mostly "did you throw a perfect ball?" They can put one defender out there and actually end up with three because you're dealing with the corner, the sideline and the back of the endzone. So people don't really take that option as a threat.

If you get beat by something a certain team converts 5-10% of the time because they just threw something perfect, then whatever. If they stink throwing slants, they're a) less likely to do it even if they do line up looking to pass and b) as long as you don't just leave someone wide open, you're probably fine. You're playing the percentages constantly.

So looking at success rates of certain types of plays is important to coaches, because you're not really caring if the defense is keying on run versus pass, it's about execution which has largely been the issue in the last year and even on Saturday. You're looking at what you do well on offense, and what you're successful doing. They can run a play they convert 70% of the time but if people don't block correctly(and after the ODU game last year Maginn outright admitted they just didn't block in short yardage situations like they needed to) then it won't work. Same thing happened on Saturday, they didn't block correctly in that specific situation and it cost them.
 
CamLemons said:
I charted this exact thing by hand this summer: https://247sports.com/college/wake-...Wake-Forest-and-short-yardage-runs-187693832/

Wake scored 3/8 times in goal-to-go scenarios from the wildcat(37.5%), which seems like a low number, but the FBS average conversion rate for goal-to-go run plays in 2021 was 35.7%. So they're fairly above water there when solely looking at wild cat packages. 2020 they went 7/8(87.5%) when the average was 36.6%. Running plays on the goalline results in much lower successful numbers than people realize.

It feels like the easy thing to say for the last couple of years is that Wake hasn't been good at the goalline or short yardage positions. Wake on goal-to-go plays in 2021: 35.6% conversion rate(average was 35.7%), 2020: 50%(average was 36.6%)

Designed runs needing three or fewer yards: in 2021 Wake converted 70%(FBS average was 54.9%), in 2020 Wake converted 62.16%
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you cannot convince me that the wildcat is better than a QB sneak from the 1-yard line

drives me nuts we seem to have no under-center package for 1- and 2-yard first down/goal line needs
 
BarcaDeac said:
I also would like to know why they didn’t opt to score before halftime when they’re getting the ball back to start the second.
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saltydeac said:
Could someone please ask Dave if they will now officially toss the wildcat out of the playbook since can’t get 2 yards on 3 plays against Vandy! It has never worked and everyone knows it except our coaches as it is their Achilles in an otherwise awesome O. We will lose yards against better ACC Ds with that mess and everyone packing 11 in the box.
Click to expand...

Coach Clawson has a weekly radio show. Feel free to submit a question.
 
JOJESMA said:
I was at the game and the Vandy score board did not show the replay on the 4th and goal play. However, upon returning home and reviewing the game tape, it sure appears that we crossed the goal line on the 4th and goal. Do not understand why there was not a review of the play.
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Clawson was asked if he thought about challenging the 4th down call, but he saw the replay on the board during the change of possession break and that we didn't get in.
 
Awesome weekend in Nashville and a great showing by Wake fans even with the shitty weather during the game.

Was pleasantly surprised by the attendance on the Wake side.

Road games are a ton of fun. Some of the ogboards.com keyboard jockeys should check it out sometime.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
you cannot convince me that the wildcat is better than a QB sneak from the 1-yard line

drives me nuts we seem to have no under-center package for 1- and 2-yard first down/goal line needs
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I mean I'm not gonna argue against that, but I will argue they do have under center stuff, Sam had a couple of touchdowns last year with it(against Louisville and Syracuse)

I know they didn't like Sam running all that much in 2020, and went on the record saying they took the ball out of his hands to keep him healthy against Vanderbilt. It's there, why they use it less, couldn't tell you. But that's something I have an issue with both collegiately and professionally. Extremely underutilized
 
I was there as well and had too much fun, I'm feeling it this morning. We opted to pre-game at the hotel rather than tailgate given the weather, but everything else was great. Husk on Friday night was excellent and I was also impressed by the amount of Wake fans in attendance.

We're going to try and make one road game a year, not counting games against UNC/Duke/State which are closer to home than Wake. I'm thinking Notre Dame next year, and I understand there are some really cool packages you can do that provide transportation from Chicago and tailgating when you get to South Bend. Then I'm definitely going to Ole Miss in 2025.
 
IamThunderbolt said:
Tackling and angles have improved significantly since last year.
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This was the most encouraging thing to me as well. Especially in the run game.

The one glaring bad angle + missed tackle I saw was Swann's first big pass play. The other two, looks like the receivers were just wide open.
 
wakelaw13 said:
I was there as well and had too much fun, I'm feeling it this morning. We opted to pre-game at the hotel rather than tailgate given the weather, but everything else was great. Husk on Friday night was excellent and I was also impressed by the amount of Wake fans in attendance.

We're going to try and make one road game a year, not counting games against UNC/Duke/State which are closer to home than Wake. I'm thinking Notre Dame next year, and I understand there are some really cool packages you can do that provide transportation from Chicago and tailgating when you get to South Bend. Then I'm definitely going to Ole Miss in 2025.
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Husk was on the list but we opted for Bourbon Steak on the 34th floor of the JW Marriott downtown. Highly recommend with great views of the city and a cool outside bar area.

The train ride from Chicago to South Bend for the game in 2012 was a good time and much more entertaining then the game itself. The Wake tailgate was pretty lame but was offset by a ton of hospitable Irish fans offering food and drink at their tailgates.
 
CamLemons said:
I charted this exact thing by hand this summer: https://247sports.com/college/wake-...Wake-Forest-and-short-yardage-runs-187693832/

Wake scored 3/8 times in goal-to-go scenarios from the wildcat(37.5%), which seems like a low number, but the FBS average conversion rate for goal-to-go run plays in 2021 was 35.7%. So they're fairly above water there when solely looking at wild cat packages. 2020 they went 7/8(87.5%) when the average was 36.6%. Running plays on the goalline results in much lower successful numbers than people realize.

It feels like the easy thing to say for the last couple of years is that Wake hasn't been good at the goalline or short yardage positions. Wake on goal-to-go plays in 2021: 35.6% conversion rate(average was 35.7%), 2020: 50%(average was 36.6%)

Designed runs needing three or fewer yards: in 2021 Wake converted 70%(FBS average was 54.9%), in 2020 Wake converted 62.16%
Click to expand...
Great analysis Cam and very insightful info. Also agree with others that didn't realize goalline results were so low. I guess the follow-up question is if we are a top 5-10 offense nationally between the 20s should we expect the same high performance near the goal line or are the goal line dynamics such that the RPO is no longer as effective given the shorter field and needing to rely on more traditional jumbo/wildcat plays to beat the averages? Which seems to be the route WF is taking. Assume 2020 was when we had KWIII and hence the high productivity. Also wonder how multiple efforts on the 1 or 2 come into the analysis as that should reflect even a lower % than just a one time fail to get in from goal line when you can't do it 3 times in a row.
 
Red zone TD percentage for Clawson's tenure:

2022 - 50.00%, 102nd

2021 - 67.16%, 32nd

2020 - 72.09%, 19th

2019 - 54.39%, 95th

2018 - 60.66%, 72nd

2017 - 62.50%, 59th

2016 - 50.00%, 115th

2015 - 46.88%, 118th

2014 - 42.42%, 121st

It has gotten much better recently and much better since they switched to the RPO offense. Somewhat surprisingly, the worst red zone offense recently was in 2019 when we had both Kenneth Walker and Jamie Newman to act as goal line runners. Too early to say anything definitive about this year, but it's been a poor start. Median FBS is generally low 60s percent.

Source: http://www.cfbstats.com/2022/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category27/sort05.html
 
was Hartman even on the field for the 3 wildcat plays? It looked like it was a full house backfield with Ellison as the wildcat . Having Hartman on the field at least makes it look there is the possibility of trickery.
 
He was split out wide right for the first two attempts at least.
 
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