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Washington Post: "Opposition to Obama Grows" & New Post/ABC Poll

He'll still win. I don't expect 11/6/12 to be that interesting.
 
Ball State Deac said:
He'll still win. I don't expect 11/6/12 to be that interesting.
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A lot can happen obviously so I will never say never. That being said, Obama has a hole as deep as the one LBJ had in 1968 when he finally stepped aside and let Humphrey carry the Dems banner against Nixon. Even a billion dollars can't change public opinion once it hardens.
 
A Mormon is not going to win the Presidency unless he's a badass. Romney is not a badass. His face always looks like the 6 year old kid just after the bully stole his pencil, but before he breaks into tears.

Americans will reject that face.
 
ncsportsnut1 said:
A lot can happen obviously so I will never say never. That being said, Obama has a hole as deep as the one LBJ had in 1968 when he finally stepped aside and let Humphrey carry the Dems banner against Nixon. Even a billion dollars can't change public opinion once it hardens.
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The problem is his opponent has never had an opinion that has been hard or set. If the GOP had a real candidate, you might have a point. Right now, Romney has no real challenge except himself.

Get ready for those old MA ads about romeny buying companies and firing all the workers to be center stage next fall. Barring a complete US economic meltdown, Romney will not be able to overcome those ads.
 
RJKarl said:
The problem is his opponent has never had an opinion that has been hard or set. If the GOP had a real candidate, you might have a point. Right now, Romney has no real challenge except himself.

Get ready for those old MA ads about romeny buying companies and firing all the workers to be center stage next fall. Barring a complete US economic meltdown, Romney will not be able to overcome those ads.
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Campaigns always will try to boost the negatives of the opposing candidate. It's part of the process. What I've seen in past elections is the attempts to boost the negatives of a candidate done by a candidate the public has already written off don't work. Obama is close to that precipice where people have started tuning him out. They will score some points against Romney, but bottom line is I don't think there is anything particularly offensive about Romney and that may be all it takes to win this time around.

I do enjoy the discussions. (INSERT: Go Deacs...Beat the Noles!)
 
He's not close to that place yet. This is very much like 2004 except Obama has a stronger base than W had.
 
Obama has lost his coalition and will never recover. The Weekly Standard had a great piece about the situation...and it's dead on IMO. Obamacare was one of the worst political moves ever. Dems won't be able to run away from the fact the recovery turned on a dime the month it was passed...and that's no coincidence.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/overrated_594676.html
 
RJKarl said:
He's not close to that place yet. This is very much like 2004 except Obama has a stronger base than W had.
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We're 13 months away from the election and he appears to be losing ground.

I used to tell young managers who thought that losing less money than before was a defense in budget meetings a simple analogy: Say you're fixing a roof and lose your footing and start sliding towards the edge of the roof. As you approach the edge you start to slow down, but you're still moving towards the edge. The question is simple...are you still falling off the roof?

Obama needs to find some traction - fast.
 
There's a big difference between the thought of who one's running against and the reality of the candidate. At this point in 2003, it looked like any of the above could beat W. By early 2004, it looked even more certain.

There are 244 EVs in states that have gone Dem for the past five elections. That's a hell of a base towards 270.

He also has an 85 EV cushion from last time he can lose and still win.
 
Under normal circumstances I don't think Obama would have a chance. But the Republican candidates are all pretty terrible. I think it'll be close.
 
RJKarl said:
There's a big difference between the thought of who one's running against and the reality of the candidate. At this point in 2003, it looked like any of the above could beat W. By early 2004, it looked even more certain.

There are 244 EVs in states that have gone Dem for the past five elections. That's a hell of a base towards 270.
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Well, the Dems lost two of those five elections.
 
WFU71 said:
Well, the Dems lost two of those five elections.
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This is true, but Obama has a much greater margin of error than does Romney.

Obama could go balls to the walls in OH, NM, CO and NV and win the election. Remember OH got 500% of the number of signatures needed to reverse the anti-union bill. Add that to Romney's business model of buy company, fire all employess, ship jobs overseas and OH is uphill for Romney.
 
pourdeac said:
Obama has lost his coalition and will never recover. The Weekly Standard had a great piece about the situation...and it's dead on IMO. Obamacare was one of the worst political moves ever. Dems won't be able to run away from the fact the recovery turned on a dime the month it was passed...and that's no coincidence.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/overrated_594676.html
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It's not only coincidence, it's dicta. Look to the economy on October 1, 2012, and you'll have your winner.
 
Arlingtom, that is as long as the opposing candidate is a viable solution. Obama would be in much more serious trouble if Thune or Daniels was runing. Romney's history of destroying jobs not creating them will buffer obama.
 
No, Romney will beat Obama if there is no sign of true recovery by October 2012. He'll be acceptable to the middle. None of the others can win, but Romney can, assuming we go double-dip and stagnate for most of 2012.
 
ArlingtonDeac said:
No, Romney will beat Obama if there is no sign of true recovery by October 2012. He'll be acceptable to the middle. None of the others can win, but Romney can, assuming we go double-dip and stagnate for most of 2012.
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I agree that Romney has the best chance. However he is very, very flawed.

If Obama continues to standup and challenge the GOP about jobs, barring a real meltdown he will win.
 
RJKarl said:
I agree that Romney has the best chance. However he is very, very flawed.

If Obama continues to standup and challenge the GOP about jobs, barring a real meltdown he will win.
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People are tired of him standing up and challenging things but not doing anything worthwhile. He needs to shut the hell up and actually take some positive steps. The prevailing view at this point is that he is an empty suit full of hot air.
 
His jobs plan is an EXCELLENT an POSITIVE step. A big majority of Americans agree with his jobs bill.

His approval rating is 300% of those who are blocking it for the express purpose of knowing that if the passes he wins re-election. The GOP would have millions of Americans suffer and Obama lose than help Americans and Obmaa win.
 
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