freakadeac
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- Apr 14, 2011
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Replace UNCG with Wake :drool:
If that's true, we need to make a move on Wes - If he's good enough to be seriously considered by UCLA, he's definitely good enough to be considered by Wake IMO.
yea but are these just rumors as I assume they are? I highly doubt UCLA with its tradition from the Wooden days is going to take a chance on a first year interim 28 year old AD. Plus their program has a winning record this year and has talent returning. Our present condition is much more desperate and desperate times call for desperate measures.
I doubt Holland gets fired after this year with a Top 10 recruiting class coming in (that could jump to Top 3 is Shabazz Muhammed joins Kyle Anderson).
I doubt Holland gets fired after this year with a Top 10 recruiting class coming in (that could jump to Top 3 is Shabazz Muhammed joins Kyle Anderson).
Would love to see it, but hiring young inexperienced coaches is not Wellman's style. After getting burned by the Caldwell and Charlene Curtis hires (both of whom were young and inexperienced when RW hired them), every candidate offered for WF's most major programs have been older (over 40) with at least a decade of head coaching experience:
- Football
Rich Brooks 59 when WF offered
John Mackovic 57 when WF offered
Jim Grobe 48 when hired
- Men's Basketball
Skip Prosser 50 when hired
Bz 57 when hired
- Women's hoop
Mike Petersen 48 when hired
Baseball
Rich Rembielak 42 when hired
Tom Walter 40 when hired
Wellman's "lesson learned" after the Caldwell and Curtis hires crashed and burned is to go for "older and experienced" candidates. I hate it as it limits options. Would love to see WF take risk a hire Miller, but would be shocked if it happened.
I'm a big Wes Miller fan, but he's getting too much credit right now.
His first game was against ECU, on 12/16.
12/16, UNCG KenPom: 294
2/15, UNCG KenPom: 276
2/16, UNCG KenPom: 262
Half of their climb up the rankings under Miller is from yesterday's big win. Yes, 30 spots is a nice improvement. I think its pretty impressive for a 28 year old.
But the record turnaround is quite misleading. UNCG played the 7th toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. Note that Miller lost all 5 of his non-conference games, by an average of more than 15 PPG. UNCG's record can be broken down as follows:
Non-con (pre-Miller): 1-5 (I'm only counting D1 competition)
Non-con (Miller): 0-5
In short, little, if any, difference.
Conference (pre-Miller): 0-3
Conference (Miller): 10-2
So, record wise, it looks like Miller has made a tremendous turnaround against Southern Conference teams. I know I'm going to get hammered for this, but when evaluating a coach, there's more to the story than just wins and losses.
Under Miller, UNCG has played 7 conference games decided by 7 points or fewer. UNCG is 7-0 in those 7 games. I know its tempting to credit that to Miller's late game coaching, but I don't buy it. Given their conference play point differential, UNCG's record would be expected to be 7-8, instead of 10-5. That's a pretty huge difference, and I don't think Miller would be getting much pub if he was 7-5 in conference play.
There's also a lot of talk about how he beat two teams that the old coach lost to. Well, shifting from playing on the road to playing at home is generally worth 7-8 points by itself.
Before Miller became head coach, UNCG lost @App by 14. At home, coached by Miller, they won in OT by 4 (18 pt improvement).
Before Miller became head coach, UNCG lost @WCU by 4. At home, coached by Miller, they won in OT by 3 (7 pt improvement).
That's pretty standard improvement, especially if you take out the OT periods.
Also, one last point I want to make...while the Southern Conference is a weak mid-major conference to begin with, the North Division is significantly weaker. I have a hard time believing that UNCG is facing a talent deficit in their division.
tl;dr Given that he has a head coaching gig at 28, I love Miller's chances of becoming a successful coach, but UNCG has not made all that much of a turnaround.
Would love to see it, but hiring young inexperienced coaches is not Wellman's style. After getting burned by the Caldwell and Charlene Curtis hires (both of whom were young and inexperienced when RW hired them), every candidate offered for WF's most major programs have been older (over 40) with at least a decade of head coaching experience:
- Football
Rich Brooks 59 when WF offered
John Mackovic 57 when WF offered
Jim Grobe 48 when hired
- Men's Basketball
Skip Prosser 50 when hired
Bz 57 when hired
- Women's hoop
Mike Petersen 48 when hired
Baseball
Rich Rembielak 42 when hired
Tom Walter 40 when hired
Wellman's "lesson learned" after the Caldwell and Curtis hires crashed and burned is to go for "older and experienced" candidates. I hate it as it limits options. Would love to see WF take risk a hire Miller, but would be shocked if it happened. Unfortunately, it's more likely that WF would hire Ben Howland (Holland according to rj) after he gets fired than Wes Miller.