Pilchard
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After a "dominating" buzzer beater win over the Apps, the Deacs head up to frigid Piscataway to take on the Knights. Here is the breakdown of WF's last OOC opponent (until the NCAAT ;-):
2022-23 Rutgers (6-4) #32: Steve Pickell has led Rutgers for seven (7) seasons. The Knights were patient with Pickell, and that patience was rewarded as it took until year #4 for Pickell to have a winning season in Piscataway, but his Rutgers teams have either made or would have made (2020 COVID) the NCAAT each of his last three seasons, and at #32 in KP, Rutgers looks like another NCAAT team this season. Sometimes, it takes time to build a program.
The Knights' high point of this season was a dominant 63-48 win over then unbeaten and top 3 ranked Indiana in NJ on December 3rd (Rutgers has been a giant killer at home in recent years). After that game, Rutgers lost (got robbed) at #31 tOSU in a 67-66 loss. Most recently, the Knights played perhaps the ugliest Power Conference game of this college basketball season in a 45-43 (yes 88 total points) home loss to Seton Hall. While shooting 39% was bad in the loss to Seton Hall, Rutgers turned it over 19 times in 59 possessions. Yikes. Rutgers has been off for almost a week and will look to atone versus the Deacs.
The analytics ('meh' offense; elite defense):
Offense:
Defense
FWIW, while Rutgers plays elite defense everywhere, they ramp it up to another level at home in the RAC. Here are the opponent point totals in Knight's home games:
35
50
65
46
49
48
45
Seven home games. Only one has scored more than 50. As you would guess, Rutgers plays at a slower tempo (67 possessions per game #241). Last home game, 59 possessions. Impossibly slow. Rutgers has become increasingly slower as this season has continued.
The lineup:
Rutgers plays a short rotation. In the loss to Seton Hall, the Knights started:
G 6-4 Cam Spencer: Senior (Loyola MD) transfer; 2nd leading scorer (13 ppg); leads team in assists. His brother, Pat was one of the best college Lax players of all-time; then Pat played college hoop at NW after his Lax eligibility expired; signed an Exhibit 10 contract with the Warriors; in the G League now.
G 6-7 Paul Mulcahy: Senior; missed 4 games with an injury; gritty max effort guy; high assist rate; doesn't shoot many threes, but when he does, he makes a high percentage of them: 35% in his career
G/F 6-7 Caleb McConnell: 5th year senior; missed the first 5 games; scored 16 against both Indiana and Rutgers; steals leader last year; great defender; opponents hate him
F 6-7 Mawot Mag: Junior; born Sudan; grew up in Australia; athletic; 2nd on team in boards; 25% from 3; great defender
C 6-11 Clifford Omoruyi: Junior; pre-season all-Big 10; leads team in scoring (14 ppg, boards 10 ppg; and blocks 2 ppg; another opponent with an elite center; draws a lot of fouls; Marsh/Bradford/Keller will have their hands full
Bench:
G/F 6-6 Aundre Hyatt; Junior; LSU transfer; led team in scoring against Seton Hall with 9; 30% from 3; 11 ppg
F/C Antwone Woolfork: Frosh; 3 ppg and 3 rpg; doesn't shoot from 3; 44% from the line
G 6-3 Derek Simpson: Frosh; started 3 games when Mulcahy was out; scored 14 against Indiana; 92 "O" rating
Score projection: KP projects 71-61 Rutgers in 69 possessions; Torvik projects 69-61 Rutgers. The thought of WF sans Appleby against the Rutgers D at the RAC is nauseating. Without Tyree, who can handle the Knight's pressure? Cam? Davien? Rehabbing Ituka? Not a lot of promising options. The handicap of the game depends on Appleby's status. He plays, and if WF is getting close to 10, shade the WF side as Rutgers giving double digits is like most teams giving close to 20, given the limited possessions. If Appleby is out, think this is a shit-show. Either way, will probably take the under if the total is above 130 (take it early; the line will drop). Even if Rutgers has a ton of positive offensive progression from the Seton Hall game, the last time Rutgers played on this floor, the two teams totaled 88 points. Hard to see a lot of positives in this matchup for the Deacs. Maybe, this is the game that WF shocks the world, or more likely, WF struggles to get to 50, and the Deacs lose decisively.
2022-23 Rutgers (6-4) #32: Steve Pickell has led Rutgers for seven (7) seasons. The Knights were patient with Pickell, and that patience was rewarded as it took until year #4 for Pickell to have a winning season in Piscataway, but his Rutgers teams have either made or would have made (2020 COVID) the NCAAT each of his last three seasons, and at #32 in KP, Rutgers looks like another NCAAT team this season. Sometimes, it takes time to build a program.
The Knights' high point of this season was a dominant 63-48 win over then unbeaten and top 3 ranked Indiana in NJ on December 3rd (Rutgers has been a giant killer at home in recent years). After that game, Rutgers lost (got robbed) at #31 tOSU in a 67-66 loss. Most recently, the Knights played perhaps the ugliest Power Conference game of this college basketball season in a 45-43 (yes 88 total points) home loss to Seton Hall. While shooting 39% was bad in the loss to Seton Hall, Rutgers turned it over 19 times in 59 possessions. Yikes. Rutgers has been off for almost a week and will look to atone versus the Deacs.
The analytics ('meh' offense; elite defense):
Offense:
- #136 in offensive efficiency
- Rutgers only positive offensive metric is offensive rebounding % (29)
- Rutgers struggles to score: 47% from 2 (#259); 31 from 3 (#278); 47% effective FG #281; turning it over in 19% of their possessions #200
Defense
- #3 in defensive efficiency
- Rare to find a defense that BOTH turns over opponents AND plays great FG% defense, but Rutgers does both.
- 41% effective FG% defense (#5), 23% three point FG% defense; 46% two point FG% defense
- Rutgers turns over opponents on over 25% of their possessions #11
FWIW, while Rutgers plays elite defense everywhere, they ramp it up to another level at home in the RAC. Here are the opponent point totals in Knight's home games:
35
50
65
46
49
48
45
Seven home games. Only one has scored more than 50. As you would guess, Rutgers plays at a slower tempo (67 possessions per game #241). Last home game, 59 possessions. Impossibly slow. Rutgers has become increasingly slower as this season has continued.
The lineup:
Rutgers plays a short rotation. In the loss to Seton Hall, the Knights started:
G 6-4 Cam Spencer: Senior (Loyola MD) transfer; 2nd leading scorer (13 ppg); leads team in assists. His brother, Pat was one of the best college Lax players of all-time; then Pat played college hoop at NW after his Lax eligibility expired; signed an Exhibit 10 contract with the Warriors; in the G League now.
G 6-7 Paul Mulcahy: Senior; missed 4 games with an injury; gritty max effort guy; high assist rate; doesn't shoot many threes, but when he does, he makes a high percentage of them: 35% in his career
G/F 6-7 Caleb McConnell: 5th year senior; missed the first 5 games; scored 16 against both Indiana and Rutgers; steals leader last year; great defender; opponents hate him
F 6-7 Mawot Mag: Junior; born Sudan; grew up in Australia; athletic; 2nd on team in boards; 25% from 3; great defender
C 6-11 Clifford Omoruyi: Junior; pre-season all-Big 10; leads team in scoring (14 ppg, boards 10 ppg; and blocks 2 ppg; another opponent with an elite center; draws a lot of fouls; Marsh/Bradford/Keller will have their hands full
Bench:
G/F 6-6 Aundre Hyatt; Junior; LSU transfer; led team in scoring against Seton Hall with 9; 30% from 3; 11 ppg
F/C Antwone Woolfork: Frosh; 3 ppg and 3 rpg; doesn't shoot from 3; 44% from the line
G 6-3 Derek Simpson: Frosh; started 3 games when Mulcahy was out; scored 14 against Indiana; 92 "O" rating
Score projection: KP projects 71-61 Rutgers in 69 possessions; Torvik projects 69-61 Rutgers. The thought of WF sans Appleby against the Rutgers D at the RAC is nauseating. Without Tyree, who can handle the Knight's pressure? Cam? Davien? Rehabbing Ituka? Not a lot of promising options. The handicap of the game depends on Appleby's status. He plays, and if WF is getting close to 10, shade the WF side as Rutgers giving double digits is like most teams giving close to 20, given the limited possessions. If Appleby is out, think this is a shit-show. Either way, will probably take the under if the total is above 130 (take it early; the line will drop). Even if Rutgers has a ton of positive offensive progression from the Seton Hall game, the last time Rutgers played on this floor, the two teams totaled 88 points. Hard to see a lot of positives in this matchup for the Deacs. Maybe, this is the game that WF shocks the world, or more likely, WF struggles to get to 50, and the Deacs lose decisively.
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