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WF MBB Game 18: Deacs at BC: Saturday 8 pm: ESPN2

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Our Deacs, currently tied for 3rd in the ACC, invade Conte Forum to challenge the BC Eagles in a nationally televised contest. NBC executives must be bumming about the inevitable ratings drain as the nation turns away from the NFL playoffs to watch this riveting WF revenge game from the 2022 ACCT. Here is the rundown on the Eagles:

8-9 (2-4) #176 BC: Like FSU, the Eagles stumbled out of the gate to start the season with losses to Maine (#312), Tarleton State (#181) and New Hampshire (#282) as BC struggled with injuries early on. To date, the following key BC players have missed games: C Quinten Post (13 games), F Prince Aligbe (6 games), G/F DeMarr Langford (3 games), Makai Ashton-Langford (2 games). In addition to the games missed, each of these players have been nursing injuries when they have played. As a result, a thin BC roster collapsed and BC played crappy basketball in November and December (as a side note, in many pre-season rankings, including KP and Torvik, some "experts" had BC rated above WF, which was a joke; WF was a 10 point favorite over BC on a neutral court to end last season, and while WF lost that game and talent off that 2022 roster; in no objective view of these two teams, was BC going to finish ahead of WF in the 2023 ACC standings, whether or not WF's sizeable coaching advantage is considered; OK back to the review of he BC Eagles.... ). In January, all of BC's key players have returned, and while the Eagles still struggle on the road, they have been tough at home.

BC's last 3 home games:
  • VT: W 70-65 (the Hokies had Hunter Cattoor for 30 minutes)
  • ND: W 70-63
  • Duke: L 65-64 (BC led with 28 seconds to go)
So, like FSU, BC is a team that is better than its record, particularly at home.

Analytics (rankings are within the ACC, #1 to #15, and only count ACC games):

Offense:

BC #12 - WF #2
Effective FG%: BC 47% (#14) - WF 55% (#1)
FTA per FGA: BC #14 - WF #3
2 PT FG%: BC 48.9% (#10) - WF 49.7% (#7)
3 PT FG%: BC 26.4% (#15) - WF 41% (#1) - Regression to the mean coming
TO%: BC 15.4% (#4) - WF 16.8% (#11)

Defense:

BC#13 - W#12
Effective FG%: BC 53.6% (#13) - WF 55.6 (#15 DFL)
FTA per FGA: BC#2 - WF #13
2 PT FG%: BC 49.8% (#10) - WF 58.7% (#15 DFL)
3 PT FG%: BC 40.5% (#14) - WF 34.3% (#9) - BC's defense is also a regression candidate
TO%: BC 18.4% (#5); WF 20.1% (#3)

Team stats (out of the 363 teams in the nation):

Bench minutes: BC 33% #109 - WF 29% #241
D1 Experience: BC 1.87 years #192 - WF 2.49 years #65
Strength of Schedule: BC #99 - WF #91

Roster: In last night's 88-72 loss in Coral Gables, BC started (guess Earl Grant doesn't value shooting acumen when building a roster):

6-2 Jaeden Zackery: coming off a bad night against Miami: 34 min, 2 points, 1-7 FGs, 2 TOs, 46 O rating; 26% (48% last year) from 3 on the season; plays better at home
6-3 Makai Ashton-Langford: 5th year senior; leads BC in scoring 12 ppg; 2nd in assists and steals; 24% (29% last year) from 3; 19 points at Miami
6-5 DeMarr Langford: 20 points at Miami (all 2 point shots); terrible 3 point shooter (15% on the season; 23% for his career); led BC with 19 points in the ACCT win over WF in 2022
6-9 TJ Bickerstaff: junior; leading rebounder (6 rpg); doesn't score much; ZERO three attempts on the season (18% for his career);
6-7 Prince Aligbe: frosh; hit the game winning shot in BC's opener, then missed almost a month games; scored 15 in the win over ND 23% from 3

The bench:

6-11 Quinten Post: Missed the first two months of the season; had 17 points and 6 boards in the upset ACCT win over WF; scored in double figures in each of the last 3 games; 114 "O" rating; 2 for 5 from three on the season
6-7 CJ Penha: transfer from D2 (Trevecca Nazarene - not sure what that is, but he averaged 20 and 10 there); 8 ppg and 3 rpg; 36% from 3; scored 16 at Duke
6-5 Mason Madsen: Cincy transfer (learned under all-time great Wes Miller): has started 11 games; minutes are dwindling; 25% from 3 (36% from three last year) ; foul prone
6-7 Devin McGlockton: RS frosh; has scored a total of 8 points in the last 3 games, but had a season high 20 at Nebraska and has scored in double figures 7 times this year; 4 for 6 from three on the season.

The Projection: KP projects a 72-68 WF win; Torvik 73-68. BC is the least prolific 3 point shooting team in the ACC; just an amazing lack of shooting prowess from a Power Conference hoop team. Only 20% of their offense comes off threes, by comparison 36% of WF's offense comes from threes. Last night, Miami outscored BC by 24 points from three, and won by 16. While reliance on the three point shot is both the current and future of basketball, it also leads to volatility. If I was handicapping this game dispassionately, I would be all over BC on Saturday. Love going against a team like WF after they hit 54% of their threes, as teams often bounce next time out (particularly on the road). Also, as bad a shooting team as BC is, got to think that their current 26% three point percentage in ACC games has to improve at least a little. Keep in mind that BC generally plays tight low scoring games in Conte, these are the point totals in regulation their last 5 games:
  • Duke: 129
  • ND: 133
  • VT: 118
  • Stonehill: 119
  • New Hampshire 128
KP projects a total of 140, Torvik 141. If the total is anything close to that, the under is play (get on the under early as the line will dive after it opens, if you want to try to middle). Also given how well WF shot last night and how BC has played at home, the sharp-side of this game will be to take BC if the line 4.5+, also expect this line to drop after it opens. This game will be ugly and low-scoring. Just get a win.
 
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Feels like one of those games where both teams shoot horribly and it comes down to who can make their free throws at the end. Hopefully, we are inspired to get retribution for last year's ACC Tourney game. Regardless, I think it will take an above-average amount of alcohol to get through.
 
DeacInVermont said:
Feels like one of those games where both teams shoot horribly and it comes down to who can make their free throws at the end. Hopefully, we are inspired to get retribution for last year's ACC Tourney game. Regardless, I think it will take an above-average amount of alcohol to get through.
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Good thing it's 8pm on a Saturday night.
 
Pilchard said:
6-5 DeMarr Langford: 20 points at Miami (all 2 point shots); terrible 3 point shooter (15% on the season; 23% for his career); led BC with 19 points in the ACCT win over WF in 2022
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BarcaDeac said:
so from your analysis sounds like BC will find their stroke and be raining 3s. probably led by some guy who has only made 1 all year.
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I’m gonna say this guy is the leading candidate.
 
So is this a game Wake can set up Marsh for a dunk-a-thon? Marsh would have size over any of their bigs. Sounds like he could match up well with Bickerstaff on D.

If Monsanto is willing to do the other stuff and let the shot attempts come to him in the flow of the game, the "regression to the mean" might not be that much. The mean may move permanently.
 
Deaconblue said:
So is this a game Wake can set up Marsh for a dunk-a-thon? Marsh would have size over any of their bigs. Sounds like he could match up well with Bickerstaff on D.

If Monsanto is willing to do the other stuff and let the shot attempts come to him in the flow of the game, the "regression to the mean" might not be that much. The mean may move permanently.
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I mean, some team as to lead the ACC in 3PT FG%. Why not Wake?!?

Monsanto gonna show out! Let's fucking go!
 
I'm not all that worried about BC going off from 3. I'm more worried about them taking the ball inside and watching a parade to the free throw line.

Yes, we are due for an off shooting night from 3 given the last 4 games have been pretty solid.

OTOH, maybe we're just a good shooting team from 3? Appleby won't keep it up, but Monsanto certainly will and this feels like a game where Williamson can get his ("his" being wide open 3s from the corner).

I think this is a close game throughout, but expect us to pull away at the end and win by ~10.

No wager from me, but the under intriguing as laid out by Pilchard.
 
the last time WF played in the Conte Forum, the starters were Williamson, Whitt, Mucius, Okpomo, and Jalen Johnson.

DW, JJ, Neath and Massoud combined to shoot 0-13 from 3, but Mucius, DuBose, and Jonah Antonio went 7-13 from deep and the Deacs won 69-65.


ETA: Tuesday night, Okpomo had 6 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists in 21 minutes of a road win for Temple at Tulsa. He had played 33 minutes on the year prior to that game - assume he was hurt.
 
FWIW, since he is mentioned above, as a starter the last WF played at BC, Bob Richey has BURIED Whitt on the Furman bench. Furman has played 5 SOCON Games. Whitt has played 1 minute total in those 5 games (the final minute of last night's Furman's 18 point win over Mercer). Whitt was not an ACC level player, and it appears that Whitt is not a SOCON level player.
 
DeacsATS said:
I'm not all that worried about BC going off from 3. I'm more worried about them taking the ball inside and watching a parade to the free throw line.

Yes, we are due for an off shooting night from 3 given the last 4 games have been pretty solid.

OTOH, maybe we're just a good shooting team from 3? Appleby won't keep it up, but Monsanto certainly will and this feels like a game where Williamson can get his ("his" being wide open 3s from the corner).

I think this is a close game throughout, but expect us to pull away at the end and win by ~10.

No wager from me, but the under intriguing as laid out by Pilchard.
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Yeah Wake's 2%D is bad, so teams that are able to establish something inside should have some success against the interior defense
 
which four Deacs are in the hypothetical three-point shootout from Odom's first year onward?
 
Childress
Dawson
J Gray
Antonio

Mix of volume and accuracy.
 
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