Sensational 7: Rankings

[Strickland33]

I love the optimism and see some of the same traits you do in Moto. Directionally you may be right.....
but those stats aren't coming anywhere near fruition for most. Is that the absolute peak for each, or your expectation of what each should put up?

If you assume each player's career year occurs in their senior year, that's 90 points, 41 rebounds, and 8 blocks per game from these seven, assuming nothing else whatsoever is provided from the guys coming in behind them. I'll let you look up what kinds of numbers we put up, even the two years we reached #1. Hint, not those numbers.

I like the optimism. Just scale down a bit, considering that expecting those numbers is setting them up for collective failure.

You've got two assumptions going on that I did not make in my post:

1) all of these guys are with the program by year 4. History tells us that the chances of this happening are extremely unlikely.

2) that each of these seasons occur at the same time. CJ and Travis's trajectories have shown this to not be the case.

Those stats are, in my opinion, how each of those guys, should they reach their potential as college players, will likely produce. Obviously, high potential players fall flat on their faces (Ty) just as often as they exceed expectations (Kyle). But, since it's a projection and given the above considerations, that's what I based my numbers on. There's nothing scientific about it: pure speculation.

That being said: per 40 minutes pace adjusted, Moto is already putting up 14.3 points (57% 2FG and 50% 3FG), 8.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.6 steals. That's with raw instincts and a below average feel for the game. Small sample size, sure, but if he got Travis minutes and possessions, then I'm guessing that he'd fare similarly. That's where he is now. It's not crazy to think that he can post those kinds of numbers in the future. Even at this stage, he's pretty productive.

 

[Strickland33]

You have the sensational 7 averaging about 90 ppg with Bz's offensive sets? Nice. Highly improbable, but nice.

Do y'all watch basketball? Players peak at different times in their careers. That's how it works. They also transfer. They also go pro. Many things could happen. I simply projected what I think each of these guys is capable of in their careers.

It's also worth pointing out that Cav and Madison have basically reached my expectations that I have for them...

Here's our team stats per 40 minutes, btw.

 

[DeaconOEF/OIFvet]

Do y'all watch basketball? Players peak at different times in their careers. That's how it works. They also transfer. They also go pro. Many things could happen. I simply projected what I think each of these guys is capable of in their careers.

It's also worth pointing out that Cav and Madison have basically reached my expectations that I have for them...

Here's our team stats per 40 minutes, btw.

I wasn't debating their capabilities or talent. I was debating the probability that they will average these numbers with our current staff situation. If you throw in the transfers, or the fact that we may not have the same clown coaching the team next year, then yeah it's possible. Who knows from this far out? Personally I never thought CJ would be having such a streak of god awful games, as the past couple that he's had this year.

 

[Strickland33]

I wasn't debating their capabilities or talent. I was debating the probability that they will average these numbers with our current staff situation. If you throw in the transfers, or the fact that we may not have the same clown coaching the team next year, then yeah it's possible. Who knows from this far out? Personally I never thought CJ would be having such a streak of god awful games, as the past couple that he's had this year.

I'm fairly convinced that Madison is going to transfer when we get a 2014 PG commitment.

I could also see Moto transferring because of our glut of wing prospects. Plus, he'll be able to transfer laterally or to a better program given his potential and physical specs.

Chill legitimately thought that CMM will be at Wake 3-years tops when I spoke to him over the summer, so that's also something to keep in mind.

 

[Doggus]

You all are sleeping on Madison Jones. For the record, I picked Tree because he can defend, pass and make a team win and his shooting is totally underrated. But Madison is a pure PG. He has athleticism that's coming on like Jeff Teague and averaging 8 ppg over his last 5. He hasn't hit a 3 yet and FT shooting has sucked but it's easy to see the FT's are all mental. His last 2 were nothing but net and I think he's had a breakthru. Meanwhile, he's leading the team in steals, assists per minute and is 3rd in blocks. With size and strength, he will be a beast has begun to reach his ceiling. Clearly a late bloomer.
I like the upside of every one of these guys and can't really find one that I don't think could play 30 min per game except maybe Washington but he probably has the most potential at the same time.

 

[dalbertthekid]

You all are sleeping on Madison Jones. For the record, I picked Tree because he can defend, pass and make a team win and his shooting is totally underrated. But Madison is a pure PG. He has athleticism that's coming on like Jeff Teague and averaging 8 ppg over his last 5. He hasn't hit a 3 yet and FT shooting has sucked but it's easy to see the FT's are all mental. His last 2 were nothing but net and I think he's had a breakthru. Meanwhile, he's leading the team in steals, assists per minute and is 3rd in blocks. With size and strength, he will be a beast has begun to reach his ceiling. Clearly a late bloomer.
I like the upside of every one of these guys and can't really find one that I don't think could play 30 min per game except maybe Washington but he probably has the most potential at the same time.

Love Madison, and agree with almost all of what you said, but he's not a late bloomer. Won't get much bigger than he is now. 5 years of high school ball (reclassed as a freshman), all varsity.

 

[Strickland33]

Love Madison, and agree with almost all of what you said, but he's not a late bloomer. Won't get much bigger than he is now. 5 years of high school ball (reclassed as a freshman), all varsity.

This. Plus, we're recruiting a starting point guard in 2014.

 

[TheIshThatSaved WakeForest]

Madison won't leave as a junior because he is scared of a freshman.

 

[bmoneydeac]

strick, you must think bz is an amazing talent scout. if you looked at the career years for similarly ranked players over the years in the ACC, you could probably cut each of their numbers in half. plus, i assume you have dre being a top 5 pick in the league?

 

[DeaconOEF/OIFvet]

I'm fairly convinced that Madison is going to transfer when we get a 2014 PG commitment.

I could also see Moto transferring because of our glut of wing prospects. Plus, he'll be able to transfer laterally or to a better program given his potential and physical specs.

Chill legitimately thought that CMM will be at Wake 3-years tops when I spoke to him over the summer, so that's also something to keep in mind.

Yeah, that's more along the lines of what I was thinking.

 

[DCDeac]

After watching Devin take his man off the dribble twice from behind the 3 point line and finish... Albeit a bit awkwardly... He's probably 2nd for me behind CMM just because he's got great size, he's a lefty, he's already showing good footwork, and when he adds an inch or two to his vertical, a little more strength and some better conditioning, he's going to start finishing all these bunnies he's missing inside. I could see him as a 15 and 10 guy easy.

I also don't see how recruiting Shelton spells doom for Madison. CMM is already playing a ton of minutes with Madison, so there's room since he's a swing guy anyway. [Redacted] deserves some credit for how solid a class this is - perhaps not a top 25 class by the numbers but they are the kinds of kids I love watching play at Wake Forest. In a couple years they are going to win a lot of games for us.

Just took him too damn long to land them.

 

[Deacsfan27]

Right now Madison is tied for 4th most minutes on the team (with Devin Thomas). It's probably a little too early to be talking about him transferring.

 

[CreamyGoodness]

Tree

 

[Deac6]

I'm fairly convinced that Madison is going to transfer when we get a 2014 PG commitment.

I could also see Moto transferring because of our glut of wing prospects. Plus, he'll be able to transfer laterally or to a better program given his potential and physical specs.

Chill legitimately thought that CMM will be at Wake 3-years tops when I spoke to him over the summer, so that's also something to keep in mind.

That last part is what I've always been scared with about CMM. He's a hell of a player and I've always felt he'd leave early, never heard that type of conformation though.

 

[Strickland33]

strick, you must think bz is an amazing talent scout. if you looked at the career years for similarly ranked players over the years in the ACC, you could probably cut each of their numbers in half. plus, i assume you have dre being a top 5 pick in the league?

A few things:

1) Somebody will have to step up. When CJ and Travis leave, we'll be graduating 30+ ppg. We typically have three guys in double figures and so I don't think the future will be an exception.

2) Like I said, at least two guys are transferring. Maybe more.

3) Like I said, these are just projections. No science involved, though if you look at the per 40 PA numbers, they're really not that outrageous. Furthermore, we're going to be graduating minutes, possessions, and production.

4) Is Andre a top-5 pick? Who is to say... Certainly not in my post or elsewhere. Big E averaged those numbers and he wasn't even in consideration in the mid-second round that year. Andre has a lot of bulking up to do, but if he can and he keeps his mobility and motor (certainly while developing from a skills perspective), then he'll definitely get looks.

5) Our staff did a good job of scouting this class, but I don't want to give [Redacted] that much credit until we see how these guys weather a season in the [Redacted] Zone. But, like I said, people have to produce.

 

[Strickland33]

That last part is what I've always been scared with about CMM. He's a hell of a player and I've always felt he'd leave early, never heard that type of conformation though.

I mean, it's complete speculation even on his part. It's just worth noting that they recruited him with this in mind.

 

[Doggus]

Madison's numbers are very similar to CMMs per 40 minutes except in regard to %'s, steals and blocks. I think we are all waiting for CMM to decide he wants to take over but I feel that Jones is already starting to take that development step in his game. Madison is 6-1 and won't get taller but has a frame to carry more bulk. By late bloomer I mean he didn't blow up in recruiting until his senior (?5th year) and he's continued to improve. that's a late bloomer at this point.

 

[Strickland33]

Right now Madison is tied for 4th most minutes on the team (with Devin Thomas). It's probably a little too early to be talking about him transferring.

Well...assuming the staff is able to deliver one elite PG in the class of 2014, the writing is on the wall.

There's simply no way that Shelton Mitchell or any of those top-10 PGs that we're recruiting sit as freshmen.

 

[cloud264]

Personally, I think it's the following:

1) CMM
2) Moto
3) Rountree
4) Thomas
5) Cavanaugh
6) Jones
7) Washington

I'm very sure that [Redacted] will be gone after this season is over since he should've been out before but the incoming class had to be preserved. This allows for better coaching and allows our more athletic guys to come out. CMM is definitely the #1 choice based on how athletic and smart he is. He's just a baller. Moto has huge potential and is explosive with great athleticism. You give him a season to get used to college and a better coach to develop him and he'll be a steady contributor that can definitely be ACC-starter material. Rountree has been a very pleasant surprise. Originally, I would have had Thomas above him, but his on the ball/off the ball play is great and his PER is great. If he were to play more minutes and maintain that 32.2 PER and an EFF/40 at 30.4, he would be in the top 20 players in the NCAA for PER and would be a huge contributor on the court. This is especially good since PER does favor offensive performance rather than things such as assists or rebounds. Thomas is next based on size, athleticism, and drive. He can develop his shot more and become a better threat with more development. Cavanaugh has some up, but needs to work on his game more to be higher on this list. Jones is money and will be a great player to have, but he will not be able to put up the numbers he can while behind CMM. He can be a starter his senior year if/when CMM leaves for the draft. Washington has great size and amazing movement for a big guy, but I can't really say much about his game due to his lack of minutes. He has the potential to be an amazing big man and one of the best we've had in a while if he can add on more bulk/strength and were to be coached more.

Like everyone else, I'm pretty sure on my first and last picks. I really do think that with proper coaching, these freshmen can do wonders.

 

[OldGoldBeard]

I love the optimism and see some of the same traits you do in Moto. Directionally you may be right.....
but those stats aren't coming anywhere near fruition for most. Is that the absolute peak for each, or your expectation of what each should put up?

If you assume each player's career year occurs in their senior year, that's 90 points, 41 rebounds, and 8 blocks per game from these seven, assuming nothing else whatsoever is provided from the guys coming in behind them. I'll let you look up what kinds of numbers we put up, even the two years we reached #1. Hint, not those numbers.

I like the optimism. Just scale down a bit, considering that expecting those numbers is setting them up for collective failure.

Exactly. I know it was DCDeac rather than Strick, but Devin as a 15 and 10 guy "easy"? Darius Songaila, Eric Williams, James Johnson, and some guy named Rodney Rogers all fell short of that mark. Timmy, AFA, and Rod Griffin are the only guys to average that in the last 40 years.