• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2016 Panthers Thread: MOVING ON

Status
Not open for further replies.
Football Outsiders released their first projections. These projections tend to group around 8-8 unless their methodology really likes or hates a team.

Panthers write up:

Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (8.8 mean wins, SOS: 12)

It's not a surprise to see our model predict the Panthers to decline. After all, teams don't go 15-1 two years in a row. And note what we wrote about Washington and the "Plexiglass Principle" -- Carolina went from 24th in overall DVOA in 2014 to fourth in 2015, so regression is very likely. In particular, we have quite a few reasons to expect a weaker defense from the Panthers in 2016. One of the variables in our defensive projections measures the loss of defensive talent based on Pro-Football-Reference's approximate value stat. Only six teams since 2003 have lost more approximate value over replacement than the 2016 Panthers. Most of that is Josh Norman, but Carolina also needs to replace veterans Jared Allen, Roman Harper and Charles Tillman. And lastly, the Panthers led the NFL in causing turnovers, which they did on 19.6 percent of their drives last year; that number is bound to regress toward the mean in 2016.

The good news for Carolina is that the gap between the Panthers and the rest of the NFC South was so huge last season that it will be tough for the other teams to make it up even if Carolina declines as much as we expect.

NFC Predictions:

1. Arizona Cardinals (12-4)
2. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
4. Carolina Panthers (9-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (11-5)*
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-7)*
 
9-7 would be disappointing to say the least. I guess their logic is that the offense was so good, KB couldn't make it much better, but the defense is doomed because it lost three veterans and a star.
 
Yeah, I don't agree with the defense being in for a big regression. I'll give them JNo, and we'll see that impact, but from watching all the games I just can't accept losing Allen, Tillman, and Harper as losses at all. I also think the front 7 will be better than last year, and while turnovers are highly volatile, it has been a staple of Rivera defenses.

Shit, we could bring back Tillman and Harper right now if we wanted.
 
How the fuck do you measure value over replacement if the replacement has never played an NFL game? That makes absolutely no sense. I guess it is probably "controlled for". But they did a good job preseason projecting the Rams as the 5th best team last year, while the Panthers came in 20, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they know their shit.
 
Details on our methodology

Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2013 or 2014. (You can find last year's final ratings here.)

Offensive projections incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback that's done independently of the team's analysis. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball. Each team has a forecasted record but also, for those of you wanting more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (San Francisco is No. 1) to the easiest (Tennessee).

When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2016, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2016." (Nonetheless, these projections will be much closer to our final forecast than they were in a similar article last May, because we overhauled our projection system last June.) Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. There's a lot of randomness in the NFL: Player development is difficult to predict, injuries have a huge impact, and even the better team might lose any given game because on the bounce of a fumble or a tipped pass. A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 12-4.

In addition, when you take the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8 with few teams predicted to have double-digit wins or losses. We've tweaked the results slightly to get a more realistic spread of win-loss records, but nonetheless, the numbers published above don't mean that we expect the 2016 season to end with no team above 12-4.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
Details on our methodology

Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2013 or 2014. (You can find last year's final ratings here.)

Offensive projections incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback that's done independently of the team's analysis. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball. Each team has a forecasted record but also, for those of you wanting more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (San Francisco is No. 1) to the easiest (Tennessee).

When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2016, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2016." (Nonetheless, these projections will be much closer to our final forecast than they were in a similar article last May, because we overhauled our projection system last June.) Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. There's a lot of randomness in the NFL: Player development is difficult to predict, injuries have a huge impact, and even the better team might lose any given game because on the bounce of a fumble or a tipped pass. A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 12-4.

In addition, when you take the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8 with few teams predicted to have double-digit wins or losses. We've tweaked the results slightly to get a more realistic spread of win-loss records, but nonetheless, the numbers published above don't mean that we expect the 2016 season to end with no team above 12-4.
Click to expand...

Bolded sentences taken together basically mean these projections are worthless
 
I got some scooooooooop that Bradberry is a beast
 
So how long do we think sports hot takers are going to be comparing post loss press conferences to Cam? I think everyone gets it by now - what's the point of bringing it up other than to take another shot at him after having already taken plenty of shots at him?
 
both Pop and Cam are oddly similar in their post game PCs because they're both consistent. Pop consistently comes off as short or even a dick, that's his shtick. Cam is consistently happy when he wins, and consistency pissed/sad when he losses, that's his shtick.

People have already gotten over Pop by saying "that's just Pop". Same should be said for Cam: "that's just Cam". Whether you like the two or not.
 
To borrow from Le Batard today:

143rfk.jpg
 
There's also the age factor as well as winning factor. If a coach was young and hadn't won anything as well as being a dick to the media they would be absolutely eviscerates. Coaches like Pop or Belichick always get a pass because they have been doing it for a long time, win a ton, and most important easily could be argued are the best or close to the best their sports have ever seen.
 
Cam doesn't win or isn't one of the best QBs?
 
Y'all are so sensitive about your QB.
 
no need to be sensitive. MVP. hates losing. loves the kids

.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top